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  • 1
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 21 ( 2020-11-13), p. 13627-13654
    Abstract: Abstract. Accurately quantifying volcanic impacts on climate is a key requirement for robust attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Here we use the Unified Model – United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UM-UKCA) composition–climate model to simulate the global dispersion of the volcanic aerosol clouds from the three largest eruptions of the 20th century: 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mt Pinatubo. The model has interactive stratospheric chemistry and aerosol microphysics, with coupled aerosol–radiation interactions for realistic composition–dynamics feedbacks. Our simulations align with the design of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison (ISA-MIP) “Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment”. For each eruption, we perform three-member ensemble model experiments for upper, mid-point, and lower estimates of SO2 emission, each re-initialised from a control run to approximately match the observed transition in the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the 6 months after the eruptions. With this experimental design, we assess how each eruption's emitted SO2 translates into a tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol and analyse the subsequent dispersion to mid-latitudes. We compare the simulations to the volcanic forcing datasets (e.g. Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC); Sato et al., 1993, and Ammann et al., 2003) that are used in historical integrations for the two most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) assessments. For Pinatubo and El Chichón, we assess the vertical extent of the simulated volcanic clouds by comparing modelled extinction to the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE-II) v7.0 satellite measurements and to 1964–1965 Northern Hemisphere ground-based lidar measurements for Agung. As an independent test for the simulated volcanic forcing after Pinatubo, we also compare simulated shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcings to the flux anomalies measured by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite instrument. For the Pinatubo simulations, an injection of 10 to 14 Tg SO2 gives the best match to the High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) satellite-derived global stratospheric sulfur burden, with good agreement also with SAGE-II mid-visible and near-infra-red extinction measurements. This 10–14 Tg range of emission also generates a heating of the tropical stratosphere that is consistent with the temperature anomaly present in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. For El Chichón, the simulations with 5 and 7 Tg SO2 emission give best agreement with the observations. However, these simulations predict a much deeper volcanic cloud than represented in the GloSSAC dataset, which is largely based on an interpolation between Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements (SAM-II) satellite and aircraft measurements. In contrast, these simulations show much better agreement during the SAGE-II period after October 1984. For 1963 Agung, the 9 Tg simulation compares best to the forcing datasets with the model capturing the lidar-observed signature of the altitude of peak extinction descending from 20 km in 1964 to 16 km in 1965. Overall, our results indicate that the downward adjustment to SO2 emission found to be required by several interactive modelling studies when simulating Pinatubo is also needed when simulating the Agung and El Chichón aerosol clouds. This strengthens the hypothesis that interactive stratospheric aerosol models may be missing an important removal or re-distribution process (e.g. effects of co-emitted ash) which changes how the tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol evolves in the initial months after an eruption. Our model comparisons also identify potentially important inhomogeneities in the CMIP6 dataset for all three eruption periods that are hard to reconcile with variations predicted in the interactive stratospheric aerosol simulations. We also highlight large differences between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 volcanic aerosol datasets for the Agung and El Chichón periods. Future research should aim to reduce this uncertainty by reconciling the datasets with additional stratospheric aerosol observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 2
    In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 9 ( 2021-09-08), p. 4407-4423
    Abstract: Abstract. We report the recovery and processing methodology of the first ever multi-year lidar dataset of the stratospheric aerosol layer. A Q-switched ruby lidar measured 66 vertical profiles of 694 nm attenuated backscatter at Lexington, Massachusetts, between January 1964 and August 1965, with an additional nine profile measurements conducted from College, Alaska, during July and August 1964. We describe the processing of the recovered lidar backscattering ratio profiles to produce mid-visible (532 nm) stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles (sAEP532) and stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD532) measurements, utilizing a number of contemporary measurements of several different atmospheric variables. Stratospheric soundings of temperature and pressure generate an accurate local molecular backscattering profile, with nearby ozone soundings determining the ozone absorption, which are used to correct for two-way ozone transmittance. Two-way aerosol transmittance corrections are also applied based on nearby observations of total aerosol optical depth (across the troposphere and stratosphere) from sun photometer measurements. We show that accounting for these two-way transmittance effects substantially increases the magnitude of the 1964/1965 stratospheric aerosol layer's optical thickness in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, then ∼ 50 % larger than represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) volcanic forcing dataset. Compared to the uncorrected dataset, the combined transmittance correction increases the sAOD532 by up to 66 % for Lexington and up to 27 % for Fairbanks, as well as individual sAEP532 adjustments of similar magnitude. Comparisons with the few contemporary measurements available show better agreement with the corrected two-way transmittance values. Within the January 1964 to August 1965 measurement time span, the corrected Lexington sAOD532 time series is substantially above 0.05 in three distinct periods, October 1964, March 1965, and May–June 1965, whereas the 6 nights the lidar measured in December 1964 and January 1965 had sAOD values of at most ∼ 0.03. The comparison with interactive stratospheric aerosol model simulations of the Agung aerosol cloud shows that, although substantial variation in mid-latitude sAOD532 are expected from the seasonal cycle in the stratospheric circulation, the Agung cloud's dispersion from the tropics would have been at its strongest in winter and weakest in summer. The increasing trend in sAOD from January to July 1965, also considering the large variability, suggests that the observed variations are from a different source than Agung, possibly from one or both of the two eruptions that occurred in 1964/1965 with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 3: Trident, Alaska, and Vestmannaeyjar, Heimaey, south of Iceland. A detailed error analysis of the uncertainties in each of the variables involved in the processing chain was conducted. Relative errors for the uncorrected sAEP532 were 54 % for Fairbanks and 44 % Lexington. For the corrected sAEP532 the errors were 61 % and 64 %, respectively. The analysis of the uncertainties identified variables that with additional data recovery and reprocessing could reduce these relative error levels. Data described in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.922105 (Antuña-Marrero et al., 2020a).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1866-3516
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2475469-9
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  • 3
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2023-01-19), p. 921-948
    Abstract: Abstract. A previous model intercomparison of the Tambora aerosol cloud has highlighted substantial differences among simulated volcanic aerosol properties in the pre-industrial stratosphere and has led to questions about the applicability of global aerosol models for large-magnitude explosive eruptions prior to the observational period. Here, we compare the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol cloud following the well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption simulated with six interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models to a range of observational data sets. Our primary focus is on the uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission following the Pinatubo eruption, as prescribed in the Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), in the framework of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). Six global models with interactive aerosol microphysics took part in this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM, and UM-UKCA. Model simulations are performed by varying the SO2 injection amount (ranging between 5 and 10 Tg S) and the altitude of injection (between 18–25 km). The comparisons show that all models consistently demonstrate faster reduction from the peak in sulfate mass burden in the tropical stratosphere. Most models also show a stronger transport towards the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere, at the expense of the observed tropical confinement, suggesting a much weaker subtropical barrier in all the models, which results in a shorter e-folding time compared to the observations. Furthermore, simulations in which more than 5 Tg S in the form of SO2 is injected show an initial overestimation of the sulfate burden in the tropics and, in some models, in the Northern Hemisphere and a large surface area density a few months after the eruption compared to the values measured in the tropics and the in situ measurements over Laramie. This draws attention to the importance of including processes such as the ash injection for the removal of the initial SO2 and aerosol lofting through local heating.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 4
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 2 ( 2022-01-19), p. 903-916
    Abstract: Abstract. Until now our understanding of the 11-year solar cycle signal (SCS) in stratospheric ozone has been largely based on high-quality but sparse ozone profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II or coarsely resolved ozone profiles from the nadir-viewing Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite instruments. Here, we analyse 16 years (2005–2020) of ozone profile measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to estimate the 11-year SCS in stratospheric ozone. Our analysis of Aura-MLS data suggests a single-peak-structured SCS profile (about 3 % near 4 hPa or 40 km) in tropical stratospheric ozone, which is significantly different to the SAGE II and SBUV-based double-peak-structured SCS. We also find that MLS-observed ozone variations are more consistent with ozone from our control model simulation that uses Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) v2 solar fluxes. However, in the lowermost stratosphere modelled ozone shows a negligible SCS compared to about 1 % in Aura-MLS data. An ensemble of ordinary least squares (OLS) and three regularised (lasso, ridge and elastic net) linear regression models confirms the robustness of the estimated SCS. In addition, our analysis of MLS and model simulations shows a large SCS in the Antarctic lower stratosphere that was not seen in earlier studies. We also analyse chemical transport model simulations with alternative solar flux data. We find that in the upper (and middle) stratosphere the model simulation with Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite solar fluxes is also consistent with the MLS-derived SCS and agrees well with the control simulation and one which uses Spectral and Total Irradiance Reconstructions (SATIRE) solar fluxes. Hence, our model simulation suggests that with recent adjustments and corrections, SORCE data can be used to analyse effects of solar flux variations. Furthermore, analysis of a simulation with fixed solar fluxes and one with fixed (annually repeating) meteorology confirms that the implicit dynamical SCS in the (re)analysis data used to force the model is not enough to simulate the observed SCS in the middle and upper stratospheric ozone. Finally, we argue that the overall significantly different SCS compared to previous estimates might be due to a combination of different factors such as much denser MLS measurements, almost linear stratospheric chlorine loading changes over the analysis period, variations in the stratospheric dynamics as well as relatively unperturbed stratospheric aerosol layer that might have influenced earlier analyses.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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