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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stratospheric Injection of Brominated Very Short‐Lived Substances: Aircraft Observations in the Western Pacific and Representation in Global Models
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 123, No. 10 ( 2018-05-27), p. 5690-5719
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 123, No. 10 ( 2018-05-27), p. 5690-5719
    Abstract: Based on winter 2014 observations, very short‐lived bromocarbons produced by oceanic biology contribute 5 ± 2 ppt to stratospheric bromine Of the bromine from very short‐lived substances that reaches the stratosphere, 60% enters as organic species and 40% as inorganic species Representation of stratospheric bromine within global models is greatly improved upon consideration of very short‐lived bromocarbons
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2017JD027978
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 18, No. 10 ( 2018-05-25), p. 7217-7235
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 10 ( 2018-05-25), p. 7217-7235
    Abstract: Abstract. Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 18, No. 2 ( 2018-01-29), p. 1091-1114
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 2 ( 2018-01-29), p. 1091-1114
    Abstract: Abstract. Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Large-scale transport into the Arctic: the roles of the midlatitude jet and the Hadley Cell
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, No. 8 ( 2019-04-26), p. 5511-5528
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 8 ( 2019-04-26), p. 5511-5528
    Abstract: Abstract. Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25 %–45 % difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 124, No. 12 ( 2019-06-27), p. 5922-5933
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 124, No. 12 ( 2019-06-27), p. 5922-5933
    Abstract: Excellent agreement between modeled and observed correlations of March Arctic ozone and April surface temperatures Variability in local spatial locations of correlations between ensemble members, but large scale agreement Using extreme values of March ozone as a predictor, skillful forecasts of April Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures are attainable
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2018JD029626
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2019
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
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    Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 32, No. 11 ( 2019-06-01), p. 3131-3151
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 32, No. 11 ( 2019-06-01), p. 3131-3151
    Abstract: Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variability and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and surface temperatures in spring–summer. This study investigates whether current chemistry–climate models (CCMs) can capture these relationships, in particular, the connection between November total column ozone (TCO) and Australian summer surface temperatures, where years with anomalously high TCO over the Antarctic polar cap tend to be followed by warmer summers. The interannual ozone–temperature teleconnection is examined over the historical period in the observations and simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and nine other models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). There is a systematic difference between the WACCM experiments forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and those with an interactive ocean. Strong correlations between TCO and Australian temperatures are only obtained for the uncoupled experiment, suggesting that the SSTs could be important for driving both variations in Australian temperatures and the ozone hole, with no causal link between the two. Other CCMI models also tend to capture this relationship with more fidelity when driven by observed SSTs, although additional research and targeted modeling experiments are required to determine causality and further explore the role of model biases and observational uncertainty. The results indicate that CCMs can reproduce the relationship between spring ozone and summer Australian climate reported in observational studies, suggesting that incorporating ozone variability could improve seasonal predictions; however, more work is required to understand the difference between the coupled and uncoupled simulations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 125, No. 22 ( 2020-11-27)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 125, No. 22 ( 2020-11-27)
    Abstract: Excellent agreement between modeled and observed differences in Arctic sea ice extent and snow depth during March ozone extreme years Sea ice extent differences following March ozone extremes persist throughout the year in some locations Using ozone as the sole predictor, accurate forecasts of sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies are obtained during years of ozone extremes
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2019JD031770
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2020
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    On the Identification of Ozone Recovery
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2018
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 45, No. 10 ( 2018-05-28), p. 5158-5165
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 45, No. 10 ( 2018-05-28), p. 5158-5165
    Abstract: A model ensemble suggests that dynamical variability dominates ozone recovery trends in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere Upper stratospheric ozone is expected to display the largest recovery at high latitudes in both hemispheres in autumn/winter seasons Solar proton events need to be taken into account when evaluating upper stratospheric ozone recovery
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077955
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    On the Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Response to ENSO and Its Impacts on Tropospheric Circulation
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 35, No. 6 ( 2022-03-15), p. 1963-1981
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 35, No. 6 ( 2022-03-15), p. 1963-1981
    Abstract: As the leading mode of Pacific variability, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes vast and widespread climatic impacts, including in the stratosphere. Following discovery of a stratospheric pathway of ENSO to the Northern Hemisphere surface, here we aim to investigate if there is a substantial Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric pathway in relation to austral winter ENSO events. Large stratospheric anomalies connected to ENSO occur on average at high SH latitudes as early as August, peaking at around 10 hPa. An overall colder austral spring Antarctic stratosphere is generally associated with the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and vice versa. This behavior is robust among reanalysis and six separate model ensembles encompassing two different model frameworks. A stratospheric pathway is identified by separating ENSO events that exhibit a stratospheric anomaly from those that do not and comparing to stratospheric extremes that occur during neutral ENSO years. The tropospheric eddy-driven jet response to the stratospheric ENSO pathway is the most robust in the spring following a La Niña, but extends into summer, and is more zonally symmetric compared to the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection. The magnitude of the stratospheric pathway is weaker compared to the tropospheric pathway and therefore, when it is present, has a secondary role. For context, the magnitude is approximately half that of the eddy-driven jet modulation due to austral spring ozone depletion in the model simulations. This work establishes that the stratospheric circulation acts as an intermediary in coupling ENSO variability to variations in the austral spring and summer tropospheric circulation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0250.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0250.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 20, No. 11 ( 2020-06-11), p. 6883-6901
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 11 ( 2020-06-11), p. 6883-6901
    Abstract: Abstract. One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how tropospheric ozone concentrations will change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers to isolate changes in transport: stratospheric ozone (O3S), which is exactly like ozone but has no chemical sources in the troposphere, and st80, a passive tracer with fixed volume mixing ratio in the stratosphere. We find a robust increase in the tropospheric columns of these two tracers across the models. In particular, stratospheric ozone in the troposphere is projected to increase 10 %–16 % by the end of the 21st century in the RCP6.0 scenario. Future STT is enhanced in the subtropics due to the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and changes in eddy transport contribute to increased STT at high latitudes. These STT trends are caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, while phasing out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) does not lead to robust transport changes. Nevertheless, the decline of ODS increases the reservoir of ozone in the lower stratosphere, which results in enhanced STT of O3S at middle and high latitudes. A higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) produces stronger STT trends, with increases in tropospheric column O3S more than 3 times larger than those in the RCP6.0 scenario by the end of the 21st century.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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