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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
    IOP Publishing ; 2019
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 14, No. 9 ( 2019-09-01), p. 094019-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 14, No. 9 ( 2019-09-01), p. 094019-
    Abstract: The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-level-pressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations, we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5–3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Patterns of change: whose fingerprint is seen in global warming?
    IOP Publishing ; 2011
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 6, No. 4 ( 2011-12-01), p. 044025-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 6, No. 4 ( 2011-12-01), p. 044025-
    Abstract: Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These fingerprints characterize the geographical and vertical pattern of the expected changes caused by external influences, for example, greenhouse gas increases and changes in solar radiation, taking also into account how these forcings and their effects vary over time. These time–space fingerprints can be used to discriminate between observed climate changes caused by different external factors. Attribution assessments necessarily take the natural variability of the climate system into account as well, evaluating whether an observed change can be explained in terms of this internal variability alone, and estimating the contribution of this source of variability to the observed change. Hence the assessment that a large part of the observed recent warming is anthropogenic is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of these joint drivers and their effects, and proceeds through a much more comprehensive and layered analysis than a comparison at face value of model simulations with observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044025
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Summer heat waves over Eastern China: dynamical processes and trend attribution
    IOP Publishing ; 2017
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 12, No. 2 ( 2017-02-01), p. 024015-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 12, No. 2 ( 2017-02-01), p. 024015-
    Abstract: Recent trends in summer heat waves (HW) over Central-Eastern China and their atmospheric drivers are investigated using the ERA Interim re-analysis. A composite analysis shows that these events are preceded by an increase in 500 hPa geopotential height. Consequently, a subsidence anomaly develops over the region and surface solar radiation increases. An increase in the northward moisture transport from the tropical region is also found to increase specific humidity, leading to warmer night-time temperatures. Feedback effects are also important: decrease of precipitation and enhanced evaporation also increases the specific humidity and North-Westerlies due to the low pressure lead to more heat convergence. HW occurrence increases, especially during the last decade, and is largely due to an increase in the mean temperature rather than to a change in dynamics, suggesting a human influence.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ba3
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends
    IOP Publishing ; 2017
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 12, No. 11 ( 2017-11-01), p. 114010-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 12, No. 11 ( 2017-11-01), p. 114010-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions
    IOP Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 15, No. 10 ( 2020-10-01), p. 104026-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 15, No. 10 ( 2020-10-01), p. 104026-
    Abstract: Climate models predict a strengthening contrast between wet and dry regions in the tropics and subtropics (30 °S–30 °N), and data from the latest model intercomparison project (CMIP6) support this expectation. Rainfall in ascending regions increases, and in descending regions decreases in climate models, reanalyses, and observational data. This strengthening contrast can be captured by tracking the rainfall change each month in the wettest and driest third of the tropics and subtropics combined. Since wet and dry regions are selected individually every month for each model ensemble member, and the observations, this analysis is largely unaffected by biases in location of precipitation features. Blended satellite and in situ data from 1988–2019 support the CMIP6-model-simulated tendency of sharpening contrasts between wet and dry regions, with rainfall in wet regions increasing substantially opposed by a slight decrease in dry regions. We detect the effect of external forcings on tropical and subtropical observed precipitation in wet and dry regions combined, and attribute this change for the first time to anthropogenic and natural forcings separately. Our results show that most of the observed change has been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Natural forcings also contribute, following the drop in wet-region precipitation after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, while anthropogenic aerosol effects show only weak trends in tropic-wide wet and dry regions consistent with flat global aerosol forcing over the analysis period. The observed response to external forcing is significantly larger ( p 〉 0.95) than the multi-model mean simulated response. As expected from climate models, the observed signal strengthens further when focusing on the wet tail of spatial distributions in both models and data.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global warming: it's not only size that matters
    IOP Publishing ; 2011
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 6, No. 3 ( 2011-09-01), p. 031002-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 6, No. 3 ( 2011-09-01), p. 031002-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/031002
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Interpreting self-organizing maps through space–time data models
    Institute of Mathematical Statistics ; 2008
    In:  The Annals of Applied Statistics Vol. 2, No. 4 ( 2008-12-1)
    Details
    In: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 2, No. 4 ( 2008-12-1)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1932-6157
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1214/08-AOAS174
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2376910-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2253657-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Marine heatwaves in global sea surface temperature records since 1850
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 8 ( 2022-08-01), p. 084027-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 8 ( 2022-08-01), p. 084027-
    Abstract: The adverse impacts of marine heatwaves (MHWs) on marine ecosystems and human activities are well-documented, yet observational studies tend to largely rely on recent records. Long-term records of MHWs can put the recent increase in frequency and intensity of MHWs in the context of past variability. We used long-term monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data and night marine air temperatures to characterise past MHW activity. A persistent increase in the global extent of MHWs is demonstrated, beginning around 1970. The average annual MHW extent post-2010 is estimated to be increased at least four fold compared to that pre-1970. A strong correlation between spatial variance of recorded average monthly SSTs and the average inverse number of monthly observations implies both frequency and amplitude of MHWs is overestimated when the number of monthly observations is low. Nevertheless, many identified early MHWs appear genuine, such as a multi-month event in the North Atlantic in 1851–1852. MHWs are also affected by poorer sampling during the world wars. The most extensive MHW years globally coincide with El Niño years, and MHW extent in the North Atlantic is correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac81db
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate
    IOP Publishing ; 2023
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 18, No. 4 ( 2023-04-01), p. 044046-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 18, No. 4 ( 2023-04-01), p. 044046-
    Abstract: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained to follow the observed NAO. We use a particle filter data-assimilation technique that sub-selects members that follow the observed NAO among an ensemble of simulations, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode in a global climate model, without the use of nudging terms. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations can be used to compare the simulated forced response to the effect of the three assimilated modes. Concentrating on the 28 year periods of strongest observed NAO trends, we show that NAO variability leads to large multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land as well as in sea-ice concentration. The Atlantic subpolar gyre region is particularly strongly influenced by the NAO, with links found to both concurrent atmospheric variability and to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Care thus needs to be taken to account for impacts of the NAO when using sea surface temperature in this region as a proxy for AMOC strength over decadal to multi-decadal time-scales. Our results have important implications for climate analyses of the North Atlantic region and highlight the need for further work to understand the causes of multi-decadal NAO variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acc477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3487-3509
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3487-3509
    Abstract: The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0102.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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