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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-12-13
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-01-14
    Description: We analyze simulated sea ice changes in eight different Earth System Models that have conducted experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The simulated response of balancing abrupt quadrupling of CO2 (abrupt4xCO2) with reduced shortwave radiation successfully moderates annually averaged Arctic temperature rise to about 1°C, with modest changes in seasonal sea ice cycle compared with the preindustrial control simulations (piControl). Changes in summer and autumn sea ice extent are spatially correlated with temperature patterns but much less in winter and spring seasons. However, there are changes of ±20% in sea ice concentration in all seasons, and these will induce changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. In summer and autumn, the models consistently simulate less sea ice relative to preindustrial simulations in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas, and some models show increased sea ice in the Barents/Kara Seas region. Sea ice extent increases in the Greenland Sea, particularly in winter and spring and is to some extent associated with changed sea ice drift. Decreased sea ice cover in winter and spring in the Barents Sea is associated with increased cyclonic activity entering this area under G1. In comparison, the abrupt4xCO2 experiment shows almost total sea ice loss in September and strong correlation with regional temperatures in all seasons consistent with open ocean conditions. The tropospheric circulation displays a Pacific North America pattern-like anomaly with negative phase in G1-piControl and positive phase under abrupt4xCO2-piControl.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth's radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering – proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo – there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar geoengineered climate and identify major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can build upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges and risks presented by solar geoengineering.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-04-06
    Description: The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening "severe, pervasive and irreversible" impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate "reversibility", the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.〉
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-06-29
    Description: The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the implementation of these ambitious targets particularly challenging. Climate engineering – both through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) – is currently discussed to potentially complement mitigation and adaptation. Results from integrated assessment models already suggest a significant role for some forms of climate engineering in achieving stringent climate objectives1. However, these estimates and their underlying assumptions are uncertain and currently heavily debated2–4. By reviewing the existing literature and reporting the views of experts, we identify research gaps and priorities for improving the integrated assessment of climate engineering. Results point to differentiated roles of CDR and SRM as complementary strategies to the traditional ones, as well as diverse challenges for an adequate representation in integrated assessment models. We identify potential synergies for model development which can help better represent mitigation and adaptation challenges, as well as climate engineering.
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-05-10
    Description: In this deliverable, we perform Earth system model (ESM) simulations to assess the role of land-based and ocean-based negative emission technologies (NETs) for achieving the temperature target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. The dataset provided from this work package will be used for investigating carbon sequestration potential, side-effects and potential constraints of combining oceanic and terrestrial NETs with the help of an earth system model, NorESM2. Two long NorESM2 coupled simulations with SSP5-3.4-OS scenario are conducted to check the CDR potential of terrestrial CDR, and terrestrial and marine CDR together by combining land-based Bioenergy for Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Ocean Alkalinization Enhancement (OAE) scenarios together. For the terrestrial BECCS simulation, the default land use distribution in the original CMIP6 SSP5-3.4 land use dataset is modified to accommodate more bioenergy crop in the future while keeping the total crop area of 2015 for food throughout the century and combining it with a bio-CCS system. For the second simulation we combined the above terrestrial BECCS simulation with 2030-high OAE scenario from Deliverable 4.6. A higher amount of carbon captured by making use of the carbon sequestration potential of land and ocean together.
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
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