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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 10 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and anthropogenic (CO2 emissions, land cover) forcings on the global climate system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. We apply several datasets of historical land-use reconstructions: the cropland dataset by Ramankutty & Foley (1999) (R&F), the HYDE land cover dataset of Klein Goldewijk (2001), and the land-use emissions data from Houghton & Hackler (2002). Comparison between the simulated and observed temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model uncertainty, CLIMBER-2 was coupled to the more complex Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model.In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms due to land cover changes tend to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 0.18°C. The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced over the land in the temperate and high northern latitudes where a cooling due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to land-use CO2 emissions.Land cover changes led to estimated increases in atmospheric CO2 of between 22 and 43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800–2000, simulated δ13CO2 with HYDE compares most favourably with ice core during 1850–1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance in HYDE over R&F. In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25–49% of the observed growth in atmospheric CO2. This contribution declined from 36–60% during 1850–1960 to 4–35% during 1960–2000. CLIMBER-2-LPJ simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO2 growth to decrease from 68% during 1900–1960 to 12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 150 years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00812.x
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Calcite formation in microbial mats: modeling and quantification of inhomogeneous distribution patterns by a cellular automaton model and multifractal measures (1996)
    Springer
    Geologische Rundschau 85 (1996), S. 857-863 
    Details
    ISSN: 0016-7835
    Keywords: Key words Microbial mats ; Calcite ; Fractal ; Multifractal ; Tidal sediments ; Cellular automaton model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract  The evolution of early diagenetic calcite cements in microbial mats of recent supratidal sediments of the southern North Sea is modeled in a two-dimensional microscale approach by a cellular automaton model (CAM). Calcite is traced out in the model by virtual calcium distribution patterns obtained from runs under different assumptions concerning sediment-intrinsic conditions. For justification of the CAM, real calcium distribution patterns, documented by scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry (SEM/EDX), are quantitatively compared with the virtual patterns on the basis of multifractal analyses. The formation of high magnesian calcite as a consequence of biogenic anaerobic decomposition of organic matter starts at certain initial calcite domains. In this stage an inhomogeneous and multifractal calcium distribution is characteristic. Nearly complete remineralization of organic matter leads to monofractal behavior of generalized fractal dimensions (DB(q)≅1.84). The CAM results confirm that calcite formation is a self-determining morphogenetical process and diffusive transport processes of reactants within the mat affect the biogenic calcite formation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s005310050117
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  • 3
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    LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (4). pp. 1343-1375.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates – internally consistently – the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 2: Model evaluation (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (4). pp. 1377-1403.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Implementing the Nitrogen cycle into the dynamic global vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL (version 5) (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development, 11 . pp. 2789-2812.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: The well-established dynamical global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL is extended with a terrestrial nitrogen cycle to account for nutrient limitations. In particular, processes of soil nitrogen dynamics, plant uptake, nitrogen allocation, response of photosynthesis and maintenance respiration to varying nitrogen concentrations in plant organs, and agricultural nitrogen management are included in the model. All new model features are described in full detail and the results of a global simulation of the historic past (1901–2009) are presented for evaluation of the model performance. We find that the implementation of nitrogen limitation significantly improves the simulation of global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity, which had to be calibrated via a scaling of the maximum leaf area index, can now largely be reproduced by the model, except for regions where fertilizer inputs and climate conditions are not the yield-limiting factors. Furthermore, it can be shown that land use has a strong influence on nitrogen losses, increasing leaching by 93%.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: archive
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Implementing the nitrogen cycle into the dynamic global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL (version 5.0) (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (7). pp. 2789-2812.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: The well-established dynamical global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL is extended with a terrestrial nitrogen cycle to account for nutrient limitations. In particular, processes of soil nitrogen dynamics, plant uptake, nitrogen allocation, response of photosynthesis and maintenance respiration to varying nitrogen concentrations in plant organs, and agricultural nitrogen management are included in the model. All new model features are described in full detail and the results of a global simulation of the historic past (1901–2009) are presented for evaluation of the model performance. We find that the implementation of nitrogen limitation significantly improves the simulation of global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity, which had to be calibrated via a scaling of the maximum leaf area index, can now largely be reproduced by the model, except for regions where fertilizer inputs and climate conditions are not the yield-limiting factors. Furthermore, it can be shown that land use has a strong influence on nitrogen losses, increasing leaching by 93 %.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: archive
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries (2023)
    AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time (2023)
    IOP
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    Holocene carbon cycle dynamics, links to model files (2011)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Kleinen, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor; von Bloh, Werner; Archer, David E; Munhoven, Guy (2011): Holocene carbon cycle dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02705, 5 pp, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041391
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Description: We are investigating the late Holocene rise in CO2 by performing four experiments with the climate-carbon-cycle model CLIMBER2-LPJ. Apart from the deep sea sediments, important carbon cycle processes considered are carbon uptake or release by the vegetation, carbon uptake by peatlands, and CO 2 release due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3. Ice core data of atmospheric CO2 between 8 ka BP and preindustrial climate can only be reproduced if CO2 outgassing due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3 is considered. In this case the model displays an increase of nearly 20 ppmv CO2 between 8 ka BP and present day. Model configurations that do not contain this forcing show a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2. We can therefore explain the late Holocene rise in CO2 by invoking natural forcing factors only, and anthropogenic forcing is not required to understand preindustrial CO2 dynamics.
    Keywords: Experiment; File format; File name; File size; Integrierte Analyse zwischeneiszeitlicher Klimadynamik; INTERDYNAMIK; Parameter; Uniform resource locator/link to model result file; Unit
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 285 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
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