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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: Calderas are topographic depressions formed by the collapse of a partly drained magma reservoir. At volcanic edifices with calderas, eruptive fissures can circumscribe the outer caldera rim, be oriented radially and/or align with the regional tectonic stress field. Constraining the mechanisms that govern this spatial arrangement is fundamental to understand the dynamics of shallow magma storage and transport and evaluate volcanic hazard. Here we show with numerical models that the previously unappreciated unloading effect of caldera formation may contribute significantly to the stress budget of a volcano. We first test this hypothesis against the ideal case of Fernandina, Galápagos, where previous models only partly explained the peculiar pattern of circumferential and radial eruptive fissures and the geometry of the intrusions determined by inverting the deformation data. We show that by taking into account the decompression due to the caldera formation, the modeled edifice stress field is consistent with all the observations. We then develop a general model for the stress state at volcanic edifices with calderas based on the competition of caldera decompression, magma buoyancy forces and tectonic stresses. These factors control: 1) the shallow accumulation of magma in stacked sills, consistently with observations; 2) the conditions for the development of circumferential and/or radial eruptive fissures, as observed on active volcanoes. This top-down control exerted by changes in the distribution of mass at the surface allows better understanding of how shallow magma is transferred at active calderas, contributing to forecasting the location and type of opening fissures.
    Description: Published
    Description: 257-293
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: Understanding shallow magma transfer and the related vent distribution is crucial for volcanic hazard. Here we investigate how the stress induced by topographic scarps linked to normal faults affects the distribution of monogenic volcanoes at divergent plate boundaries. Our numerical models of dyke propagation below a fault scarp show that the dykes tend to propagate toward and erupt on the footwall side. This effect, increasing with the scarp height, is stronger for dykes propagating underneath the hanging wall side and decreases with the distance from the scarp. A comparison to the East African Rift System, Afar and Iceland shows that (1) the inner rift structure, which shapes the topography, controls shallow dyke propagation; (2) differential loading due to mass redistribution affects magma propagation over a broad scale range (10 0 –10 5 m). Our results find application to any volcanic field with tectonics- or erosion-induced topographic variations and should be considered in any volcanic hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7507–7512
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults. ‘Anticipated’ earthquakes are generally called ‘triggered’; however, it can be controversial to label a specific earthquake as such, mostly because of the stochastic nature of earthquake occurrence and of the large uncertainties usually associated to stress modelling. Here we introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon. As an example, we consider an earthquake that was likely triggered by a natural event: the M = 6.2 13 Jan 1976 Kópasker earthquake on the Grímsey lineament (Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland), which occurred about 3 weeks after a large dike injection in the nearby Krafla fissure swarm. By using Coulomb stress calculations and the rate-and-state earthquake nucleation theory, we calculate the likelihood of the earthquake in a scenario that contains only the tectonic background and excludes the dike and in a scenario that includes the dike but excludes the background. Applying the Bayes’ theorem, we obtain that the probability that the earthquake was indeed triggered by the dike, rather than purely due to the accumulation of tectonic strain, is about 60 to 90 %. This methodology allows us to assign quantitative probabilities to different scenarios and can help in classifying earthquakes as triggered or not triggered by natural or human-induced changes of stress in the crust.
    Description: Published
    Description: 165–187
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: Active calderas are seldom associated with circumferential eruptive fissures, but eroded magmatic complexes reveal widespread circumferential dikes. This suggests that, while the conditions to emplace circumferential dikes are easily met, mechanisms must prevent them from reaching the surface. We explain this discrepancy with experiments of air injection into gelatin shaped as a volcano with caldera. Analog dikes show variable deflection, depending on the competition between overpressure, P e , and topographic unloading, P l; when P l /P e = 4.8–5.3, the dikes propagate orthogonal to the least compressive stress. Due to the unloading, they become circumferential and stall below the caldera rim; buoyancy is fundamental for the further rise and circumferential fissure development. Numerical models quantitatively constrain the stress orientation within the gelatin, explaining the observed circumferential dikes. Our results explain how dikes propagate below the rim of felsic and mafic calderas, but only in the latter they are prone to feed circumferential fissures.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6212–6219
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: Tectonic earthquake swarms (TES) often coincide with aseismic slip and sometimes precede damaging earthquakes. In spite of recent progress in understanding the significance and properties of TES at plate boundaries, their mechanics and scaling are still largely uncertain. Here we evaluate several TES that occurred during the past 20 years on a transform plate boundary in North Iceland. We show that the swarms complement each other spatially with later swarms discouraged from fault segments activated by earlier swarms, which suggests efficient strain release and aseismic slip. The fault area illuminated by earthquakes during swarms may be more representative of the total moment release than the cumulative moment of the swarm earthquakes. We use these findings and other published results from a variety oftectonic settings to discuss general scaling properties for TES. The results indicate that the importance of TES in releasing tectonic strain at plate boundaries may have been underestimated.
    Description: Published
    Description: 62-70
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2018-04-06
    Description: Magma is transported in the crust mainly by dike intrusions. In volcanic areas, dikes can ascend toward the free surface and also move by lateral propagation, eventually feeding flank eruptions. Understanding dike mechanics is a key to forecasting the expected propagation and associated hazard. Several studies have been conducted on dike mechanisms and propagation; however, a less in-depth investigated aspect is the relation between measured dike-induced deformation and the seismicity released during its propagation. We individuated a simple x that can be used as a proxy of the expected mechanical energy released by a propagating dike and is related to its average thickness. For several intrusions around the world (Afar, Japan, and Mount Etna), we correlate such mechanical energy to the seismic moment released by the induced earthquakes. We obtain an empirical law that quantifies the expected seismic energy released before arrest. The proposed approach may be helpful to predict the total seismic moment that will be released by an intrusion and thus to control the energy status during its propagation and the time of dike arrest.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5486-5494
    Description: 5V. Dinamica dei processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: dike propagation ; deformation modeling ; seismic release ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.
    Keywords: 550 ; impact forecasting ; natural hazards ; early warning
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2021-09-03
    Description: Processes occurring in volcanic conduits, the pathways through which magma travels from its storage region to the surface, have a fundamental control on the nature of eruptions and associated phenomena. It has been well established that magma flows, crystallizes, degasses, and fragments in conduits, that fluids migrate in and out of conduits, and that seismic and acoustic waves are generated and travel within conduits. A better understanding of volcanic conduits and related processes is of paramount importance for improving eruption forecasting, volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation. However, despite escalating advances in the characterization of individual conduit processes, our understanding of their mutual interactions and the consequent control on volcanic activity is still limited. With the purpose of addressing this topic, a multidisciplinary workshop led by a group of international scientists was hosted from 25 to 27 October 2014 by the Pisa branch of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia under the sponsorship of the MeMoVolc Research Networking Programme of the European Science Foundation. The workshop brought together the experimental, theoretical, and observational communities devoted to volcanological research. After 3 days of oral and poster presentations, breakout sessions, and plenary discussions, the participants identified three main outstanding issues common to experimental, analytical, numerical, and observational volcanology: unsteadiness (or transience), disequilibrium, and uncertainty. A key outcome of the workshop was to identify the specific knowledge areas in which exchange of information among the subdisciplines would lead to efficient progress in addressing these three main outstanding issues. It was clear that multidisciplinary collaboration of this sort is essential for progressing the state of the art in understanding of conduit magma dynamics and eruption behavior. This holistic approach has the ultimate aim to deliver fundamental improvements in understanding the underlying processes generating and controlling volcanic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: S0666
    Description: 4V. Dinamica dei processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2021-11-26
    Description: Structure and dynamics of fault systems can be investigated using repeating earthquakes as repeatable seismic sources, alongside ground deformation measurements. Here we utilise a dataset of repeating earthquakes which occurred between 2000 and 2019 along the transtensive Pernicana fault system on the northeast flank of Mount Etna, Italy, to investigate the fault structure, as well as the triggering mechanisms of the seismicity. By grouping the repeating earthquakes into families and integrating the seismic data with GPS measurements of ground deformation, we identify four distinct portions of the fault. Each portion shows a different behaviour in terms of seismicity, repeating earthquakes and ground deformation, which we attribute to structural differences including a segmentation of the fault plane at depth. The recurrence intervals of repeating earthquake families display a low degree of regularity which suggests an episodic triggering mechanism, such as magma intrusion, rather than displacement under a constant stress.
    Description: Published
    Description: 116
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-06-17
    Description: Volcanic crises are often associated with magmatic intrusions or the pressurization of magma chambers of various shapes. These volumetric sources deform the country rocks, changing their density, and cause surface uplift. Both the net mass of intruding magmatic fluids and these deformation effects contribute to surface gravity changes. Thus, to estimate the intrusion mass from gravity changes, the deformation effects must be accounted for. We develop analytical solutions and computer codes for the gravity changes caused by triaxial sources of expansion. This establishes coupled solutions for joint inversions of deformation and gravity changes. Such inversions can constrain both the intrusion mass and the deformation source parameters more accurately.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Volcanic crises are usually associated with magmatic fluids that intrude and deform the host rocks before potentially breaching the Earth's surface. It is important to estimate how much fluid (mass and volume) is on the move. Volume can be determined from the measured surface uplift. Mass can be determined from surface gravity changes. The fluid intrusion increases the mass below the volcano, thereby increasing the gravity and pressurizing the rocks. This dilates parts of the host rock and compresses other parts, changing the rock density and redistributing the rock mass. This causes secondary gravity changes, called deformation‐induced gravity changes. The measured gravity change is always the sum of the mass and deformation‐induced contributions. Here, we develop mathematical equations for the rapid estimation of these deformation‐induced gravity changes caused by arbitrary intrusion shapes. This way we can take the mass contribution apart from the deformation contribution. We show that by using this solution not only the intrusion mass, but also other intrusion parameters, including the volume, depth, and shape can be calculated more accurately.
    Description: Key Points; We develop analytical solutions for gravity changes due to the point Compound Dislocation Model simulating triaxial expansions. Rapid coupled inversions of deformation and gravity changes, accounting for deformation‐induced gravity changes are now possible. For shallow sources, estimation errors in the chamber volume change may lead to large biases in the simulated gravity changes.
    Description: EU Horizon 2020 programme NEWTON‐g project, under the FETOPEN‐ Grant Agreement No.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://volcanodeformation.com/onewebmedia/pCDMgravity.zip
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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