Publication Date:
2018-03-06
Description:
Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, 2018 We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
Print ISSN:
2190-4979
Electronic ISSN:
2190-4987
Topics:
Geosciences
