Publication Date:
2018-03-06
Description:
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, 2018 Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Print ISSN:
2190-4979
Electronic ISSN:
2190-4987
Topics:
Geosciences
