Publication Date:
2020-02-12
Description:
Angular momentum functions based on forecasted model states can predict high-frequency mass variations within the geophysical fluids for 5-7 days into the future. In a hindcast experiment 10-day forecasts of angular momentum functions, modeled from predicted states of the atmosphere, ocean and continental hydrosphere, are used to incorporate wide-band stochastic signals into the statistically derived IERS bulletin A predictions. The combination approach concatenates the rapid solution of the past 90 days from bulletin A with one week of modeled forecasts and the trend and bias corrected 90-day prediction of bulletin A. We analyzed, how the improvements in the first days of the predicted EOPs by the model forecasts manifest itself in a decreased prediction error even at prediction days 30 or 60. Comparing the predictions with IERS bulletin A and C04 the reduction of the mean absolute error is significant in polar motion whereas UT1-UTC does not benefit much since the atmospheric excitation forecasts are already included in bulletin A.
Keywords:
550 - Earth sciences
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
