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  • 11
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    Low statistical power and overestimated anthropogenic impacts, exacerbated by publication bias, dominate field studies in global change biology (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Global Change Biology, Wiley, 28(3), pp. 969-989, ISSN: 1354-1013
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-27
    Description: Field studies are essential to reliably quantify ecological responses to global change because they are exposed to realistic climate manipulations. Yet such studies are limited in replicates, resulting in less power and, therefore, potentially unreliable effect estimates. Furthermore, while manipulative field experiments are assumed to be more powerful than non-manipulative observations, it has rarely been scrutinized using extensive data. Here, using 3847 field experiments that were designed to estimate the effect of environmental stressors on ecosystems, we systematically quantified their statistical power and magnitude (Type M) and sign (Type S) errors. Our investigations focused upon the reliability of field experiments to assess the effect of stressors on both ecosystem's response magnitude and variability. When controlling for publication bias, single experiments were underpowered to detect response magnitude (median power: 18%–38% depending on effect sizes). Single experiments also had much lower power to detect response variability (6%–12% depending on effect sizes) than response magnitude. Such underpowered studies could exaggerate estimates of response magnitude by 2–3 times (Type M errors) and variability by 4–10 times. Type S errors were comparatively rare. These observations indicate that low power, coupled with publication bias, inflates the estimates of anthropogenic impacts. Importantly, we found that meta-analyses largely mitigated the issues of low power and exaggerated effect size estimates. Rather surprisingly, manipulative experiments and non-manipulative observations had very similar results in terms of their power, Type M and S errors. Therefore, the previous assumption about the superiority of manipulative experiments in terms of power is overstated. These results call for highly powered field studies to reliably inform theory building and policymaking, via more collaboration and team science, and large-scale ecosystem facilities. Future studies also require transparent reporting and open science practices to approach reproducible and reliable empirical work and evidence synthesis.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 12
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    Drivers of global pre‐industrial patterns of species turnover in planktonic foraminifera (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Ecography, Wiley, 2022(1), ISSN: 0906-7590
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-27
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Anthropogenic climate change is altering global biogeographical patterns. However, it remains difficult to quantify how bioregions are changing because pre‐industrial records of species distributions are rare. Marine microfossils, such as planktonic foraminifera, are preserved in seafloor sediments and allow the quantification of bioregions in the past. Using a recently compiled data set of pre‐industrial species composition of planktonic foraminifera in 3802 worldwide seafloor sediments, we employed multivariate and statistical model‐based approaches to study spatial turnover in order to 1) quantify planktonic foraminifera bioregions and 2) understand the environmental drivers of species turnover. Four latitudinally banded bioregions emerge from the global assemblage data. The polar and temperate bioregions are bi‐hemispheric, supporting the idea that planktonic foraminifera species are not limited by dispersal. The equatorial bioregion shows complex longitudinal patterns and overlaps in sea surface temperature (SST) range with the tropical bioregion. Compositional‐turnover models (Bayesian bootstrap generalised dissimilarity models) identify SST as the strongest driver of species turnover. The turnover rate is constant across most of the SST gradient, showing no SST threshold values with rapid shifts in species composition, but decelerates above 25°C, suggesting SST is less predictive of species composition in warmer waters. Other environmental predictors affect species turnover non‐linearly, and their importance differs across regions. In the Pacific ocean, net primary productivity below 500 mgC m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 day〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉 drives fast compositional change. Water depth values below 3000 m (which affect calcareous microfossil preservation) increasingly drive changes in species composition among death assemblages in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Together, our results suggest that the dynamics of planktonic foraminifera bioregions are expected to be highly responsive to climate change; however, at lower latitudes, environmental drivers other than SST may affect these dynamics.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 13
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    Three major mesoplanktonic communities resolved by in situ imaging in the upper 500 m of the global ocean (2023)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Global Ecology and Biogeography, Wiley, ISSN: 1466-822X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-08
    Description: Aim: The distribution of mesoplankton communities has been poorly studied at global scale, especially from in situ instruments. This study aims to (1) describe the global distribution of mesoplankton communities in relation to their environment and (2) as-sess the ability of various environmental- based ocean regionalizations to explain the distribution of these communities. Location: Global ocean, 0–500 m depth. Time Period: 2008–2019. Major Taxa Studied: Twenty-eight groups of large mesoplanktonic and macroplank-tonic organisms, covering Metazoa, Rhizaria and Cyanobacteria. Methods: From a global data set of 2500 vertical profiles making use of the Underwater Vision Profiler 5 (UVP5), an in situ imaging instrument, we studied the global distribu-tion of large (〉600 μm) mesoplanktonic organisms. Among the 6.8 million imaged ob-jects, 330,000 were large zooplanktonic organisms and phytoplankton colonies, the rest consisting of marine snow particles. Multivariate ordination (PCA) and clustering were used to describe patterns in community composition, while comparison with existing regionalizations was performed with regression methods (RDA). Results: Within the observed size range, epipelagic plankton communities were Trichodesmium- enriched in the intertropical Atlantic, Copepoda- enriched at high latitudes and in upwelling areas, and Rhizaria-enriched in oligotrophic areas. In the mesopelagic layer, Copepoda-enriched communities were also found at high lati-tudes and in the Atlantic Ocean, while Rhizaria-enriched communities prevailed in the Peruvian upwelling system and a few mixed communities were found elsewhere. The comparison between the distribution of these communities and a set of existing regionalizations of the ocean suggested that the structure of plankton communities described above is mostly driven by basin- level environmental conditions. Main Conclusions: In both layers, three types of plankton communities emerged and seemed to be mostly driven by regional environmental conditions. This work sheds light on the role not only of metazoans, but also of unexpected large protists and cy-anobacteria in structuring large mesoplankton communities.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 14
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    3D morphological variability in foraminifera unravel environmental changes in the Baltic Sea entrance over the last 200 years (2023)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Earth Science, Frontiers, 11, pp. 1120170-1120170, ISSN: 2296-6463
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-19
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Human activities in coastal areas have intensified over the last 200 years, impacting also high-latitude regions such as the Baltic Sea. Benthic foraminifera, protists often with calcite shells (tests), are typically well preserved in marine sediments and known to record past bottom-water conditions. Morphological analyses of marine shells acquired by microcomputed tomography (µCT) have made significant progress toward a better understanding of recent environmental changes. However, limited access to data processing and a lack of guidelines persist when using open-source software adaptable to different microfossil shapes. This study provides a post-data routine to analyze the entire test parameters: average thickness, calcite volume, calcite surface area, number of pores, pore density, and calcite surface area/volume ratio. A case study was used to illustrate this method: 3D time series (i.e., 4D) of 〈jats:italic〉Elphidium clavatum〈/jats:italic〉 specimens recording environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea entrance from the period early industrial (the 1800s) to present-day (the 2010 s). Long-term morphological trends in the foraminiferal record revealed that modern specimens have ∼28% thinner tests and ∼91% more pores than their historic counterparts. However, morphological variability between specimens and the BFAR (specimens cm〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 yr〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉) in 〈jats:italic〉E. clavatum〈/jats:italic〉 were not always synchronous. While the BFAR remained unchanged, morphological variability was linked to natural environmental fluctuations in the early industrial period and the consequences of anthropogenic climate change in the 21st century. During the period 1940–2000 s, the variations in BFAR were synchronous with morphological variability, revealing both the effects of the increase in human activities and major hydrographic changes. Finally, our interpretations, based on 〈jats:italic〉E. clavatum〈/jats:italic〉 morphological variations, highlight environmental changes in the Baltic Sea area, supporting those documented by the foraminiferal assemblages.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 15
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    Citizen scientists reveal small but concentrated amounts of fragmented microplastic on Arctic beaches (2023)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Environmental Science, Frontiers, 11, pp. 1210019-1210019, ISSN: 2296-665X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: Plastic production and plastic waste have increased to such an extent that it has become globally ubiquitous. Recent research has highlighted that it has also invaded remote Polar Regions including the Arctic, where it is expected to accumulate over time due to transport from distant sources, rising local anthropogenic activities and increasing fragmentation of existing ocean plastics to microplastics (plastic items 〈5 mm). While a growing body of research has documented microplastics in the atmosphere, cryosphere, sea surface, water column, sediments and biota, contamination levels on Arctic beaches are poorly known. To fill this knowledge gap, we engaged citizen scientists participating in tourist cruises to sample beach sediments during shore visits on Svalbard, Norway. Following drying, sieving, and visual inspection of samples under a binocular microscope, putative plastic particles ≥1 mm were analysed by attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. Plastic particles ≥1 mm were found in two out of 53 samples from 23 beaches (mean: 196.3 particles kg−1 and 147.4 particles L−1). These pollution levels could be due to our focus on plastic particles ≥1 mm as well as the relatively small sample sizes used during this initial phase of the project. In addition, the coarse substrate on most beaches might retain fewer plastic particles. The two samples with plastic particles ≥1 mm contained six polyester-epoxide particles and 4920 polypropylene fibres. The latter likely originated from a fishing net and points to possibly accelerated plastic fragmentation processes on Arctic beaches. Since fisheries-related debris is an important source of plastic on Svalbard, a build-up of microplastic quantities can be expected to burden Arctic ecosystems in addition to climate change unless efficient upstream action is taken to combat plastic pollution.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 16
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    Making the UN Ocean Decade work? The potential for, and challenges of, transdisciplinary research and real‐world laboratories for building towards ocean solutions (2023)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3People and Nature, Wiley, 5(1), pp. 21-33, ISSN: 2575-8314
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-12
    Description: Due to the strong interconnectedness between the ocean and our societies worldwide, improved ocean governance is essential for sustainable development in the context of the UN Ocean Decade. However, a multitude of different perspectives—ecological, societal, political, economic—and relations between these have to be understood and taken into consideration to foster transformative pathways towards marine sustainability. A core challenge that we are facing is that the ‘right’ response to complex societal issues cannot be known beforehand as abilities to predict complex systems are limited. Consequently, societal transformation is necessarily a journey towards the unknown and therefore requires experimental approaches that must enable the involvement of everyone with stakes in the future of our marine environment and its resources. A promising transdisciplinary research method that fulfils both criteria—being participatory and experimental—are real-world laboratories. Here, we discuss how real-world labs can serve as an operational framework in the context of the Ocean Decade by facilitating and guiding successful knowledge exchange at the interface of science and society. The core element of real-world labs is transdisciplinary experimentation to jointly develop potential strategies leading to targeted real-world interventions, essential for achieving the proposed ‘Decade Outcomes’. The authors specifically illustrate how deploying the concept of real-world labs can be advantageous when having to deal with multiple, overlapping challenges in the context of ocean governance and the blue economy. Altogether, we offer a first major contribution to synthesizing knowledge on the potentials of marine real-world labs, considering how they act as a way of exploring options for sustainable ocean futures. Indeed, in the marine context, real-world labs are still under-explored but are a tangible way for addressing the societal challenges of working towards sustainability transformations over the coming UN Ocean Decade and beyond. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 17
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    Emergent interactive effects of climate change and contaminants in coastal and ocean ecosystems (2022)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers, 9, pp. 936109-936109, ISSN: 2296-7745
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-03
    Description: The effects of climate change (CC) on contaminants and their potential consequences to marine ecosystem services and human wellbeing are of paramount importance, as they pose overlapping risks. Here, we discuss how the interaction between CC and contaminants leads to poorly constrained impacts that affects the sensitivity of organisms to contamination leading to impaired ecosystem function, services and risk assessment evaluations. Climate drivers, such as ocean warming, ocean deoxygenation, changes in circulation, ocean acidification, and extreme events interact with trace metals, organic pollutants, excess nutrients, and radionuclides in a complex manner. Overall, the holistic consideration of the pollutants-climate change nexus has significant knowledge gaps, but will be important in understanding the fate, transport, speciation, bioavailability, toxicity, and inventories of contaminants. Greater focus on these uncertainties would facilitate improved predictions of future changes in the global biogeochemical cycling of contaminants and both human health and marine ecosystems.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 18
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    Improving satellite-based monitoring of the polar regions: Identification of research and capacity gaps (2023)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Remote Sensing, Frontiers, 4, pp. 952091-952091, ISSN: 2673-6187
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-12
    Description: We present a comprehensive review of the current status of remotely sensed and in situ sea ice, ocean, and land parameters acquired over the Arctic and Antarctic and identify current data gaps through comparison with the portfolio of products provided by Copernicus services. While we include several land parameters, the focus of our review is on the marine sector. The analysis is facilitated by the outputs of the KEPLER H2020 project. This project developed a road map for Copernicus to deliver an improved European capacity for monitoring and forecasting of the Polar Regions, including recommendations and lessons learnt, and the role citizen science can play in supporting Copernicus’ capabilities and giving users ownership in the system. In addition to summarising this information we also provide an assessment of future satellite missions (in particular the Copernicus Sentinel Expansion Missions), in terms of the potential enhancements they can provide for environmental monitoring and integration/assimilation into modelling/forecast products. We identify possible synergies between parameters obtained from different satellite missions to increase the information content and the robustness of specific data products considering the end-users requirements, in particular maritime safety. We analyse the potential of new variables and new techniques relevant for assimilation into simulations and forecasts of environmental conditions and changes in the Polar Regions at various spatial and temporal scales. This work concludes with several specific recommendations to the EU for improving the satellite-based monitoring of the Polar Regions.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 19
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    Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities (2024)
    Wiley
    In:  Journal of Biogeography vol. 2024 no. 14816
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-31
    Description: Aim: Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location: Amazonia. Taxon: Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods: Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results: In the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R2= 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R2= 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion: Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (〉66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions.
    Keywords: community assembly ; dispersal limitation ; environmental selection ; evolutionary principal ; component analysis ; indicator lineage analysis ; Moran's eigenvector maps ; neotropics ; Niche ; conservatism ; tropical rain forests
    Repository Name: National Museum of Natural History, Netherlands
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 20
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    The Underwater Vision Profiler 6: an imaging sensor of particle size spectra and plankton, for autonomous and cabled platforms (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Limnology and Oceanography Methods, Wiley, 20(2), pp. 115-129, ISSN: 1541-5856
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-01
    Description: Autonomous and cabled platforms are revolutionizing our understanding of ocean systems by providing 4D monitoring of the water column, thus going beyond the reach of ship-based surveys and increasing the depth of remotely sensed observations. However, very few commercially available sensors for such platforms are capable of monitoring large particulate matter (100–2000 μm) and plankton despite their important roles in the biological carbon pump and as trophic links from phytoplankton to fish. Here, we provide details of a new, commercially available scientific camera-based particle counter, specifically designed to be deployed on autonomous and cabled platforms: the Underwater Vision Profiler 6 (UVP6). Indeed, the UVP6 camera-and-lighting and processing system, while small in size and requiring low power, provides data of quality comparable to that of previous much larger UVPs deployed from ships. We detail the UVP6 camera settings, its performance when acquiring data on aquatic particles and plankton, their quality control, analysis of its recordings, and streaming from in situ acquisition to users. In addition, we explain how the UVP6 has already been integrated into platforms such as BGC-Argo floats, gliders and long-term mooring systems (autonomous platforms). Finally, we use results from actual deployments to illustrate how UVP6 data can contribute to addressing longstanding questions in marine science, and also suggest new avenues that can be explored using UVP6-equipped autonomous platforms.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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