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  • 1
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    Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Ecology Letters, Wiley, 25(5), pp. 1075-1093, ISSN: 1461-023X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-27
    Description: While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be detrimental to this cause. Locked-in debates are often unnecessarily polarised and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked-in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social-ecological systems in general. We identified four features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked-in debates: (1) The strongly context-dependent behaviour of ecological systems. (2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. (3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. (4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 2
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    Integrating Data Science and Earth Science Challenges and Solutions (2022)
    Springer International Publishing AG
    In:  SpringerBriefs in Earth System Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-09
    Description: This open access book presents the results of three years collaboration between earth scientists and data scientist, in developing and applying data science methods for scientific discovery. The book will be highly beneficial for other researchers at senior and graduate level, interested in applying visual data exploration, computational approaches and scientifc workflows.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
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  • 3
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    IUGG Electronic Journal Vol. 22 (2022)
    IUGG Secretariat, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-27
    Description: These short, informal newsletters, issued every month on approximately the first day of the month, are intended to keep IUGG Member National Committees informed about the activities of the IUGG Associations and actions of the IUGG Secretariat. Special issues are sometimes distributed mid-month as deemed appropriate. The content usually includes a synopsis of scientific meetings during the following three months in order to illustrate the disciplinary and geographical diversity of IUGG interests. E-Journals may be forwarded to those who will benefit from the information.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 4
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    Modeling drivers of biodiversity change emphasizes the need for multivariate assessments and rescaled targeting for management (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Conservation Science and Practice, Wiley, 4(10), ISSN: 2578-4854
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-04
    Description: The current policy and goals aimed to conserve biodiversity and manage biodiversity change are often formulated at the global scale. At smaller scales however, biodiversity change is more nuanced leading to a plethora of trends in different metrics of alpha diversity and temporal turnover. Therefore, large-scale policy targets do not translate easily into local to regional management decisions for biodiversity. Using long-term monitoring data from the Wadden Sea (Southern North Sea), joining structural equation models and general dissimilarity models enabled a better overview of the drivers of biodiversity change. Few commonalities emerged as birds, fish, macroinvertebrates, and phytoplankton differed in their response to certain drivers of change. These differences were additionally dependent upon the biodiversity aspect in question and which environmental data were recorded in each monitoring program. No single biodiversity metric or model sufficed to capture all ongoing change, which requires an explicitly multivariate approaches to biodiversity assessment in local ecosystem management.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    Global Distribution of Zooplankton Biomass Estimated by In Situ Imaging and Machine Learning (2022)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers, 9, pp. 894372-894372, ISSN: 2296-7745
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-01
    Description: Zooplankton plays a major role in ocean food webs and biogeochemical cycles, and provides major ecosystem services as a main driver of the biological carbon pump and in sustaining fish communities. Zooplankton is also sensitive to its environment and reacts to its changes. To better understand the importance of zooplankton, and to inform prognostic models that try to represent them, spatially-resolved biomass estimates of key plankton taxa are desirable. In this study we predict, for the first time, the global biomass distribution of 19 zooplankton taxa (1-50 mm Equivalent Spherical Diameter) using observations with the Underwater Vision Profiler 5, a quantitative in situ imaging instrument. After classification of 466,872 organisms from more than 3,549 profiles (0-500 m) obtained between 2008 and 2019 throughout the globe, we estimated their individual biovolumes and converted them to biomass using taxa-specific conversion factors. We then associated these biomass estimates with climatologies of environmental variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen, etc.), to build habitat models using boosted regression trees. The results reveal maximal zooplankton biomass values around 60°N and 55°S as well as minimal values around the oceanic gyres. An increased zooplankton biomass is also predicted for the equator. Global integrated biomass (0-500 m) was estimated at 0.403 PgC. It was largely dominated by Copepoda (35.7%, mostly in polar regions), followed by Eumalacostraca (26.6%) Rhizaria (16.4%, mostly in the intertropical convergence zone). The machine learning approach used here is sensitive to the size of the training set and generates reliable predictions for abundant groups such as Copepoda (R2 ≈ 20-66%) but not for rare ones (Ctenophora, Cnidaria, R2 〈 5%). Still, this study offers a first protocol to estimate global, spatially resolved zooplankton biomass and community composition from in situ imaging observations of individual organisms. The underlying dataset covers a period of 10 years while approaches that rely on net samples utilized datasets gathered since the 1960s. Increased use of digital imaging approaches should enable us to obtain zooplankton biomass distribution estimates at basin to global scales in shorter time frames in the future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 6
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    Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean (2022)
    Copernicus GmbH
    In:  EPIC3Biogeosciences, Copernicus GmbH, 19(22), pp. 5313-5342, ISSN: 1810-6277
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-29
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Systematic long-term studies on ecosystem dynamics are largely lacking from the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, although it is well recognized that they are indispensable to identify the ecological impacts and risks of environmental change. Here, we present a framework for establishing a long-term cross-disciplinary study on decadal timescales. We argue that the eastern Weddell Sea and the adjacent sea to the east, off Dronning Maud Land, is a particularly well suited area for such a study, since it is based on findings from previous expeditions to this region. Moreover, since climate and environmental change have so far been comparatively muted in this area, as in the eastern Antarctic in general, a systematic long-term study of its environmental and ecological state can provide a baseline of the current situation, which will be important for an assessment of future changes from their very onset, with consistent and comparable time series data underpinning and testing models and their projections. By establishing an Integrated East Antarctic Marine Research (IEAMaR) observatory, long-term changes in ocean dynamics, geochemistry, biodiversity, and ecosystem functions and services will be systematically explored and mapped through regular autonomous and ship-based synoptic surveys. An associated long-term ecological research (LTER) programme, including experimental and modelling work, will allow for studying climate-driven ecosystem changes and interactions with impacts arising from other anthropogenic activities. This integrative approach will provide a level of long-term data availability and ecosystem understanding that are imperative to determine, understand, and project the consequences of climate change and support a sound science-informed management of future conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    Global And Arctic Climate Engineering: Numerical Model Studies (2022)
    University of Bremen
    In:  EPIC3University of Bremen, 59 p.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-21
    Description: Climate engineering is an intentional large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system to counteract the anthropogenic warming. It has been proposed and recently gained attention as a potential option for tackling global warming. To evaluate the feasibility and impacts of geoengineering, we performed idealized climate simulations using solar geoengineering scheme by artificially reducing the incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) either globally or over the polar regions. Four simulations were conducted, i.e. pre-industrial control simulation, global warming simulation with 4xCO2, global uniform solar reduction and reduction of solar radiation regionally over both poles. Our results indicate that the 4xCO2 induced a 6.7 K global mean surface temperature raise, amplified over both poles primarily during the hemisphere winter. Besides, the warming also cause intensification and poleward shift of the global precipitation pattern. A 4.2% globally uniform solar reduction can largely compensate the global mean warming caused by 4xCO2. We find that solar reduction is efficient to reduce the warming at the region where the background sunshine is strong, such as the low-latitude summer warming. However, the CO2 induced warming over high latitudes during winter are less sensitive to solar reduction. The solar reduction leads to more residual warming over land than over the ocean. Therefore, it could result in hemisphere asymmetric residual warming due to the hemisphere asymmetric land-sea distribution. This will eventually cause northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the associated low-latitude precipitation pattern. Moreover, we notice that solar reduction could lead to an overall weakening of the global hydrological cycle, suggesting that over reduction of solar radiation may result in large-scale drought. The CO2 forcing introduces more warming over the poles than low-latitudes. The ice sheets around both poles are critical for further sea level rise. Our experiments indicate that 16% solar reduction over both poles (higher than 60 ◦N/S) is able to restore the summer temperature and sea ice extent. However, such polar regional geoengineering leads to stronger and more frequent high-latitude storms. Our simulation results show that Solar Radiation Management is an effective way to offset global mean temperature raise. Nevertheless, climate engineering by reducing insolation at the TOA, either globally or regionally, have strong impact on the hydrological cycle and the regional climate. In spite of the fact that our climate simulations are being highly idealised, these simulations can provide useful information about the climate respond to scenarios with more realistic GHG forcing.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Thesis , notRev
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  • 8
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    Low statistical power and overestimated anthropogenic impacts, exacerbated by publication bias, dominate field studies in global change biology (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Global Change Biology, Wiley, 28(3), pp. 969-989, ISSN: 1354-1013
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-27
    Description: Field studies are essential to reliably quantify ecological responses to global change because they are exposed to realistic climate manipulations. Yet such studies are limited in replicates, resulting in less power and, therefore, potentially unreliable effect estimates. Furthermore, while manipulative field experiments are assumed to be more powerful than non-manipulative observations, it has rarely been scrutinized using extensive data. Here, using 3847 field experiments that were designed to estimate the effect of environmental stressors on ecosystems, we systematically quantified their statistical power and magnitude (Type M) and sign (Type S) errors. Our investigations focused upon the reliability of field experiments to assess the effect of stressors on both ecosystem's response magnitude and variability. When controlling for publication bias, single experiments were underpowered to detect response magnitude (median power: 18%–38% depending on effect sizes). Single experiments also had much lower power to detect response variability (6%–12% depending on effect sizes) than response magnitude. Such underpowered studies could exaggerate estimates of response magnitude by 2–3 times (Type M errors) and variability by 4–10 times. Type S errors were comparatively rare. These observations indicate that low power, coupled with publication bias, inflates the estimates of anthropogenic impacts. Importantly, we found that meta-analyses largely mitigated the issues of low power and exaggerated effect size estimates. Rather surprisingly, manipulative experiments and non-manipulative observations had very similar results in terms of their power, Type M and S errors. Therefore, the previous assumption about the superiority of manipulative experiments in terms of power is overstated. These results call for highly powered field studies to reliably inform theory building and policymaking, via more collaboration and team science, and large-scale ecosystem facilities. Future studies also require transparent reporting and open science practices to approach reproducible and reliable empirical work and evidence synthesis.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 9
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    Drivers of global pre‐industrial patterns of species turnover in planktonic foraminifera (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Ecography, Wiley, 2022(1), ISSN: 0906-7590
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-27
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Anthropogenic climate change is altering global biogeographical patterns. However, it remains difficult to quantify how bioregions are changing because pre‐industrial records of species distributions are rare. Marine microfossils, such as planktonic foraminifera, are preserved in seafloor sediments and allow the quantification of bioregions in the past. Using a recently compiled data set of pre‐industrial species composition of planktonic foraminifera in 3802 worldwide seafloor sediments, we employed multivariate and statistical model‐based approaches to study spatial turnover in order to 1) quantify planktonic foraminifera bioregions and 2) understand the environmental drivers of species turnover. Four latitudinally banded bioregions emerge from the global assemblage data. The polar and temperate bioregions are bi‐hemispheric, supporting the idea that planktonic foraminifera species are not limited by dispersal. The equatorial bioregion shows complex longitudinal patterns and overlaps in sea surface temperature (SST) range with the tropical bioregion. Compositional‐turnover models (Bayesian bootstrap generalised dissimilarity models) identify SST as the strongest driver of species turnover. The turnover rate is constant across most of the SST gradient, showing no SST threshold values with rapid shifts in species composition, but decelerates above 25°C, suggesting SST is less predictive of species composition in warmer waters. Other environmental predictors affect species turnover non‐linearly, and their importance differs across regions. In the Pacific ocean, net primary productivity below 500 mgC m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 day〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉 drives fast compositional change. Water depth values below 3000 m (which affect calcareous microfossil preservation) increasingly drive changes in species composition among death assemblages in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Together, our results suggest that the dynamics of planktonic foraminifera bioregions are expected to be highly responsive to climate change; however, at lower latitudes, environmental drivers other than SST may affect these dynamics.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 10
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    The EPOS Multi-Scale Laboratories: A FAIR Framework for stimulating Open Science practice across European Earth Sciences Laboratories. (2022)
    In:  Annals of Geophysics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-12
    Description: The Multi-scale Laboratories (MSL) are a network of European laboratories bringing together the scientific fields of analogue modeling, paleomagnetism, experimental rock and melt physics, geo-chemistry and microscopy. MSL is one of nine (see below) Thematic Core Services (TCS) of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS). The overarching goal of EPOS is to establish a compre-hensive multidisciplinary research platform for the Earth sciences in Europe. It aims at facilitating the integrated use of data, models, and facilities, from both existing and new distributed pan European Research Infrastructures, allowing open access and transparent use of data.The TCS MSL network allows researchers to collaborate with other labs and scientists. By becoming part of the rapidly growing TCS MSL network, new laboratories are offered a platform to showcase their research data output, laboratory equipment and information, and the opportunity to open laboratories to guest researchers through the Transnational Access (TNA) program.The EPOS Multi-scale laboratories offer researchers a fully operational data publication chain tailored to the specific needs of laboratory research, from a bespoke metadata editor, through dedi­cated, (domain­specific) data repositories, to the MSL Portal showcasing these citable data publica-tions. During this process the data publications are assigned with digital object identidiers (DOI), published with open licenses (e.g. CC BY 4.0) and described with standardized and machine-read-able rich metadata (following the FAIR Principles to make research data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable. The TCS MSL is currently working on linking these data publications to the EPOS Central Portal1, the main discovery and access point for European multi-disciplinary data, and on increasing the number of connected data repositories.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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