Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: The highly populated coasts of the Bay of Bengal are particularly vulnerable to water-borne diseases, pollution and climatic extremes. The environmental factors behind bacterial community composition and Vibrio distribution were investigated in an estuarine system of a cholera-endemic region in the coastline of Bangladesh. Higher temperatures and sewage pollution were important drivers of the abundance of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae. A closer relation between non-culturable Vibrio and particulate organic matter (POM) was inferred during the post-monsoon. The distribution of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of Vibrio genus was likely driven by salinity and temperature. The resuspension of sediments increased Vibrio abundance and organic nutrient concentrations. The δ13C dynamic in POM followed an increasing gradient from freshwater to marine stations; nevertheless, it was not a marker of sewage pollution. Bacteroidales and culturable coliforms were reliable indicators of untreated wastewater during pre and post-monsoon seasons. The presumptive incorporation of depleted-ammonium derived from ammonification processes under the hypoxic conditions, by some microorganisms such as Cloacibacterium and particularly by Arcobacter nearby the sewage discharge, contributed to the drastic 15N depletion in the POM. The likely capacity of extracellular polymeric substances production of these taxa may facilitate the colonization of POM from anthropogenic origin and may signify important properties for wastewater bioremediation. Genera of potential pathogens other than Vibrio associated with sewage pollution were Acinetobacter, Aeromonas, Arcobacter, and Bergeyella. The changing environmental conditions of the estuary favored the abundance of early colonizers and the island biogeography theory explained the distribution of some bacterial groups. This multidisciplinary study evidenced clearly the eutrophic conditions of the Karnaphuli estuary and assessed comprehensively its current bacterial baseline and potential risks. The prevailing conditions together with human overpopulation and frequent natural disasters, transform the region in one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Adaptive management strategies are urgently needed to enhance ecosystem health.

Description: A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river‐influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and ~25‐50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle‐reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 ± 0.4 Sv (106 m3 s‐1). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean.

Description: This study proposes a new process‐based framework to characterize and classify runoff events of various magnitudes occurring in a wide range of catchments. The framework uses dimensionless indicators that characterize space–time dynamics of precipitation events and their spatial interaction with antecedent catchment states, described as snow cover, distribution of frozen soils, and soil moisture content. A rigorous uncertainty analysis showed that the developed indicators are robust and regionally consistent. Relying on covariance‐ and ratio‐based indicators leads to reduced classification uncertainty compared to commonly used (event‐based) indicators based on absolute values of metrics such as duration, volume, and intensity of precipitation events. The event typology derived from the proposed framework is able to stratify events that exhibit distinct hydrograph dynamics even if streamflow is not directly used for classification. The derived typology is therefore able to capture first‐order controls of event runoff response in a wide variety of catchments. Application of this typology to about 180,000 runoff events observed in 392 German catchments revealed six distinct regions with homogeneous event type frequency that match well regions with similar behavior in terms of runoff response identified in Germany. The detected seasonal pattern of event type occurrence is regionally consistent and agrees well with the seasonality of hydroclimatic conditions. The proposed framework can be a useful tool for comparative analyses of regional differences and similarities of runoff generation processes at catchment scale and their possible spatial and temporal evolution.

Description: The Svalbard margin represents one of the northernmost gas hydrate provinces worldwide. Vestnesa Ridge (VR) and Svyatogor Ridge (SR) west of Svalbard are two prominent sediment drifts showing abundant pockmarks and sites of seismic chimney structures. Some of these sites at VR are associated with active gas venting and were the focus of drilling and coring with the seafloor‐deployed MARUM‐MeBo70 rig. Understanding the nature of fluid migration and gas hydrate distribution requires (amongst other parameters) knowledge of the thermal regime and in situ gas and pore‐fluid composition. In situ temperature data were obtained downhole at a reference site at VR defining a geothermal gradient of ~78 mK m‐1 (heat flow ~95 mW m‐2). Additional heat‐probe data were obtained to describe the thermal regime of the pockmarks. The highest heat flow values were systematically seen within pockmark depressions and were uncorrelated to gas venting occurrences. Heat flow within pockmarks is typically ~20 mW m‐2 higher than outside pockmarks. Using the downhole temperature data and gas compositions from drilling we model the regional base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ). Thermal modeling including topographic effects suggest a BGHSZ up to 40 m deeper than estimated from seismic data. Uncertainties in sediment properties (velocity and thermal conductivity) are only partially explaining the mismatch. Capillary effects due to small sediment grain sizes may shift the free gas occurrence above the equilibrium BGHSZ. Changes in gas composition or pore fluid salinity at greater depth may also explain the discrepancy in observed and modeled BGHSZ.

Description: The 1888 Ritter Island volcanic sector collapse triggered a regionally damaging tsunami. Historic eyewitness accounts allow the reconstruction of the arrival time, phase and height of the tsunami wave at multiple locations around the coast of New Guinea and New Britain. 3D seismic interpretations and sedimentological analyses indicate that the catastrophic collapse of Ritter Island was preceded by a phase of deep-seated gradual spreading within the volcanic edifice and accompanied by a submarine explosive eruption, as the volcanic conduit was cut beneath sea level. However, the potential impact of the deep-seated deformation and the explosive eruption on tsunami genesis is unclear. For the first time, it is possible to parameterise the different components of the Ritter Island collapse with 3D seismic data, and thereby test their relative contributions to the tsunami. The modelled tsunami arrival times and heights are in good agreement with the historic eyewitness accounts. Our simulations reveal that the tsunami was primarily controlled by the displacement of the water column by the collapsing cone at the subaerial-submarine boundary and that the submerged fraction of the slide mass and its mobility had only a minor effect on tsunami genesis. This indicates that the total slide volume, when incorporating the deep-seated deforming mass, is not directly scalable for the resulting tsunami height. Furthermore, the simulations show that the tsunamigenic impact of the explosive eruption energy during the Ritter Island collapse was only minor. However, this relationship may be different for other volcanogenic tsunami events with smaller slide volumes or larger magnitude eruptions, and should not be neglected in tsunami simulations and hazard assessment.

Description: Climate engineering (CE) measures are increasingly discussed when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change. While much research has focused on individual methods, few studies attempt to compare and rank the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, model uncertainties are seldom acknowledged and lesser still, estimated when CE scenarios are assessed. In this work, we quantify the variance in outcomes due to poorly constrained model parameters under several idealized CE scenarios. The four scenarios considered are (1) warming under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 without CE applied and the same emission scenario with (2) afforestation,(3) solar radiation management, and (4) artificial ocean alkalinization. By considering the parametric uncertainty in model outputs, we demonstrate the problems with comparing these scenarios using a single parameter setting. Using statistical emulation, we estimate the probability distributions of several model outcomes. Based on such distributions, we suggest an approach to ranking the effectiveness of the scenarios considered according to their probability of avoiding climate thresholds.

Description: Establishment of adequate conservation areas represents a challenging but crucial task in the conservation of genetic diversity and biological variability. Anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems and organisms are steadily increasing. Whether and to what extent these pressures influence marine genetic biodiversity is only starting to be revealed. Using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, we analysed the microbial community structure of 33 individuals of the habitat-forming glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii, as well as reference seawater, sediment, and biofilm samples. We assessed how two anthropogenic impacts, i.e. habitat destruction by trawling and artificial substrate provision (moorings made of composite plastic), correspond with in situ V. pourtalesii microbiome variability. In addition, we evaluated the role of two bottom fishery closures in preserving sponge-associated microbial diversity on the Scotian Shelf, Canada. Our results illustrate that V. pourtalesii sponges collected from pristine sites within fishery closures contained distinct and taxonomically largely novel microbial communities. At the trawled site we recorded significant quantitative differences in distinct microbial phyla, such as a reduction in Nitrospinae in sponges and environmental references. Individuals of V. pourtalesii growing on the mooring were significantly enriched in Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia and Cyanobacteria in comparison to sponge individuals growing on the natural seabed. Due to a concomitant enrichment of these taxa in the mooring biofilm, we propose that biofilms on artificial substrates may ‘prime’ sponge-associated microbial communities when small sponges settle on such substrates. These observations likely have relevant management implications when considering the increase of artificial substrates in the marine environment, e.g., marine litter, off-shore wind parks, and petroleum platforms.

Description: Key Points: - Fluid flow is focused along Nootka Fault traces resulting in shallow bright spots - Two seafloor mounds are the result of basaltic intrusions in the Nootka Fault zone - Gas hydrates occur at the Nootka Slope and are imaged seismically as bottom- simulating reflectors suggesting a regional heat-flow of ~80 mW/m2 along the slope Abstract Geophysical and geochemical data indicate there is abundant fluid expulsion in the Nootka fault zone (NFZ) between the Juan de Fuca and Explorer plates and the Nootka continental slope. Here we combine observations from 〉 20 years of investigations to demonstrate the nature of fluid‐flow along the NFZ, which is the seismically most active region off Vancouver Island. Seismicity reaching down to the upper mantle is linked to near‐seafloor manifestation of fluid flow through a network of faults. Along the two main fault traces, seismic reflection data imaged bright spots 100 – 300 m below seafloor that lie above changes in basement topography. The bright spots are conformable to sediment layering, show opposite‐to‐seafloor reflection polarity, and are associated with frequency‐reduction and velocity push‐down indicating the presence of gas in the sediments. Two seafloor mounds ~15 km seaward of the Nootka slope are underlain by deep, non‐conformable high amplitude reflective zones. Measurements in the water column above one mound revealed a plume of warm water, and bottom‐video observations imaged hydrothermal vent system biota. Pore fluids from a core at this mound contain predominately microbial methane (C1) with a high proportion of ethane (C2) yielding C1/C2 ratios 〈 500 indicating a possible slight contribution from a deep source. We infer the reflective zones beneath the two mounds are basaltic intrusions that create hydrothermal circulation within the overlying sediments. Across the Nootka continental slope, gas hydrate related bottom‐simulating reflectors are widespread and occur at depths indicating heat‐flow values of 80 – 90 mW/m2.