Description: Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modeling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.

Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: Marine organisms produce a vast diversity of metabolites with biological activities useful for humans, e.g., cytotoxic, antioxidant, anti-microbial, insecticidal, herbicidal, anticancer, pro-osteogenic and pro-regenerative, analgesic, anti-inflammatory, anticoagulant, cholesterol-lowering, nutritional, photoprotective, horticultural or other beneficial properties. These metabolites could help satisfy the increasing demand for alternative sources of nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, cosmeceuticals, food, feed, and novel bio-based products. In addition, marine biomass itself can serve as the source material for the production of various bulk commodities (e.g., biofuels, bioplastics, biomaterials). The sustainable exploitation of marine bio-resources and the development of biomolecules and polymers are also known as the growing field of marine biotechnology. Up to now, over 35,000 natural products have been characterized from marine organisms, but many more are yet to be uncovered, as the vast diversity of biota in the marine systems remains largely unexplored. Since marine biotechnology is still in its infancy, there is a need to create effective, operational, inclusive, sustainable, transnational and transdisciplinary networks with a serious and ambitious commitment for knowledge transfer, training provision, dissemination of best practices and identification of the emerging technological trends through science communication activities. A collaborative (net)work is today compelling to provide innovative solutions and products that can be commercialized to contribute to the circular bioeconomy. This perspective article highlights the importance of establishing such collaborative frameworks using the example of Ocean4Biotech, an Action within the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) that connects all and any stakeholders with an interest in marine biotechnology in Europe and beyond.

Description: The temperate seagrass species eelgrass Zostera marina can be infected by the wasting disease pathogen Labyrinthula zosterae, which is believed to have killed about 90% of the seagrass in the Atlantic Ocean in the 1930s. It is not known why this opportunistic pathogen sometimes becomes virulent, but the recurrent outbreaks may be due to a weakening of the Z. marina plants from adverse environmental changes. This study investigated the individual and interactive effects of multiple extrinsic factors (temperature, light, and tissue damage) on the host-pathogen interaction between Z. marina and L. zosterae in a fully crossed infection experiment. The degree of infection was measured as both lesion coverage and L. zosterae cell concentration. We also investigated if the treatment factors affect the chemical defense of the host, measured as the inhibitory capacity of seagrass extracts in bioassays with L. zosterae. Finally, gene expression of a set of targeted genes was quantified in order to investigate how the treatments change Z. marina’s response to infection. Light had a pronounced effect on L. zosterae infection measured as lesion coverage, where reduced light conditions increased lesions by 35%. The response to light on L. zosterae cell concentration was more complex and showed significant interaction with the temperature treatment. Cell concentration was also significantly affected by physical damage, where damage surprisingly resulted in a reduced cell concentration of the pathogen. No treatment factor caused detectable decrease in the inhibitory capacity of the seagrass extracts. There were several interactive effects between L. zosterae infection and the treatment factors on Z. marina growth, and on the expression of genes associated with immune defense, phenol synthesis and primary metabolism, showing that the molecular reaction toward L. zosterae infection depends on prevailing environmental conditions. Our study shows that individual or interactive effects of light, temperature and tissue damage can affect multiple aspects of host-pathogen interactions in seagrasses. These results highlight the complexity of marine host-pathogen systems, showing that more multi-factorial investigations are needed to gain a better understanding of disease in marine plants under different environmental conditions.

Description: A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river‐influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and ~25‐50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle‐reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 ± 0.4 Sv (106 m3 s‐1). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean.

Description: This study proposes a new process‐based framework to characterize and classify runoff events of various magnitudes occurring in a wide range of catchments. The framework uses dimensionless indicators that characterize space–time dynamics of precipitation events and their spatial interaction with antecedent catchment states, described as snow cover, distribution of frozen soils, and soil moisture content. A rigorous uncertainty analysis showed that the developed indicators are robust and regionally consistent. Relying on covariance‐ and ratio‐based indicators leads to reduced classification uncertainty compared to commonly used (event‐based) indicators based on absolute values of metrics such as duration, volume, and intensity of precipitation events. The event typology derived from the proposed framework is able to stratify events that exhibit distinct hydrograph dynamics even if streamflow is not directly used for classification. The derived typology is therefore able to capture first‐order controls of event runoff response in a wide variety of catchments. Application of this typology to about 180,000 runoff events observed in 392 German catchments revealed six distinct regions with homogeneous event type frequency that match well regions with similar behavior in terms of runoff response identified in Germany. The detected seasonal pattern of event type occurrence is regionally consistent and agrees well with the seasonality of hydroclimatic conditions. The proposed framework can be a useful tool for comparative analyses of regional differences and similarities of runoff generation processes at catchment scale and their possible spatial and temporal evolution.

Description: The Svalbard margin represents one of the northernmost gas hydrate provinces worldwide. Vestnesa Ridge (VR) and Svyatogor Ridge (SR) west of Svalbard are two prominent sediment drifts showing abundant pockmarks and sites of seismic chimney structures. Some of these sites at VR are associated with active gas venting and were the focus of drilling and coring with the seafloor‐deployed MARUM‐MeBo70 rig. Understanding the nature of fluid migration and gas hydrate distribution requires (amongst other parameters) knowledge of the thermal regime and in situ gas and pore‐fluid composition. In situ temperature data were obtained downhole at a reference site at VR defining a geothermal gradient of ~78 mK m‐1 (heat flow ~95 mW m‐2). Additional heat‐probe data were obtained to describe the thermal regime of the pockmarks. The highest heat flow values were systematically seen within pockmark depressions and were uncorrelated to gas venting occurrences. Heat flow within pockmarks is typically ~20 mW m‐2 higher than outside pockmarks. Using the downhole temperature data and gas compositions from drilling we model the regional base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ). Thermal modeling including topographic effects suggest a BGHSZ up to 40 m deeper than estimated from seismic data. Uncertainties in sediment properties (velocity and thermal conductivity) are only partially explaining the mismatch. Capillary effects due to small sediment grain sizes may shift the free gas occurrence above the equilibrium BGHSZ. Changes in gas composition or pore fluid salinity at greater depth may also explain the discrepancy in observed and modeled BGHSZ.

Description: The establishment of epibacterial communities is fundamental to seaweed health and fitness, in modulating ecological interactions and may also facilitate adaptation to new environments. Abiotic factors like salinity can determine bacterial abundance, growth and community composition. However, influence of salinity as a driver of epibacterial community composition (until species level) has not been investigated for seaweeds and especially under long time scales. We also do not know how abiotic stressors may influence the ‘core’ bacterial species of seaweeds. Following an initial (immediately after field collection) sampling of epibacterial community of an invasive red seaweed Agarophyton vermicullophylum, we conducted a long term mesocosm experiment for 5 months, to examine the influence of three different salinities (low, medium and high) at two different time points (3 months after start of experiment and 5 months, i.e., at the end of experiment) on the epibacterial community richness and composition of Agarophyton. Metagenomic sequencing showed that epibacterial communities changed significantly according to salinity and time points sampled. Epibacterial richness was significantly different between low and high salinities at both time points. Epibacterial richness also varied significantly between 3 months (after start of experiment) and 5 months (end of experiment) within low, medium and high salinity level. Irrespective of salinity levels and time points sampled 727 taxa consistently appeared in all Agarophyton samples hinting at the presence of core bacterial species on the surface of the alga. Our results indicate that both salinity and time can be major driving forces in structuring epibacterial communities of seaweeds with respect to richness and β-diversity. We highlight the necessity of conducting long term experiments allowing us to detect and understand epibacterial succession over time on seaweeds.

Description: Continental slopes – steep regions between the shelf break and abyssal ocean – play key roles in the climatology and ecology of the Arctic Ocean. Here, through review and synthesis, we find that the narrow slope regions contribute to ecosystem functioning disproportionately to the size of the habitat area (∼6% of total Arctic Ocean area). Driven by inflows of sub-Arctic waters and steered by topography, boundary currents transport boreal properties and particle loads from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans along-slope, thus creating both along and cross-slope connectivity gradients in water mass properties and biomass. Drainage of dense, saline shelf water and material within these, and contributions of river and meltwater also shape the characteristics of the slope domain. These and other properties led us to distinguish upper and lower slope domains; the upper slope (shelf break to ∼800 m) is characterized by stronger currents, warmer sub-surface temperatures, and higher biomass across several trophic levels (especially near inflow areas). In contrast, the lower slope has slower-moving currents, is cooler, and exhibits lower vertical carbon flux and biomass. Distinct zonation of zooplankton, benthic and fish communities result from these differences. Slopes display varying levels of system connectivity: (1) along-slope through property and material transport in boundary currents, (2) cross-slope through upwelling of warm and nutrient rich water and down-welling of dense water and organic rich matter, and (3) vertically through shear and mixing. Slope dynamics also generate separating functions through (1) along-slope and across-slope fronts concentrating biological activity, and (2) vertical gradients in the water column and at the seafloor that maintain distinct physical structure and community turnover. At the upper slope, climatic change is manifested in sea-ice retreat, increased heat and mass transport by sub-Arctic inflows, surface warming, and altered vertical stratification, while the lower slope has yet to display evidence of change. Model projections suggest that ongoing physical changes will enhance primary production at the upper slope, with suspected enhancing effects for consumers. We recommend Pan-Arctic monitoring efforts of slopes given that many signals of climate change appear there first and are then transmitted along the slope domain.