Description: This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates – internally consistently – the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

Description: The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013)

Description: In climate reanalyses for multi-decadal or longer scales with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation models (CGCMs) it can be assumed that the growth of prediction errors arises chiefly from imprecisely known model parameters, which have a nonlinear relationship with the climate observations (paleoclimate proxies). Also, high-resolution CGCMs for climate analysis are extremely expensive to run, which constrains the applicability of assimilation schemes. In a model framework where we assume that model dynamic parameters account for (nearly) all forecast errors at observation times, we compare two computationally efficient iterative schemes for approximate nonlinear model parameter estimation and joint flux estimation (taking the specific shape of freshwater from melting in the Greenland ice sheet), and its physically consistent state. First, a trivial adaptation of the strong constraint incremental 4D-Var formulation leads to what we refer to as the parameter space iterative extended Kalman smoother (pIKS); a Gauss-Newton scheme. Second, a so-called parameter space fractional Kalman smoother (pFKS) is an alternative controlled-step line search, which can potentially be a more stable approach. While these iterative schemes have been used in data assimilation, we revisit them together within the context of parameter estimation in climate reanalysis, as compared to the more general 4D-Var formulation. Then, the two schemes are evaluated in numerical experiments with a simple 1D energy balance model (Ebm1D) and with a fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.2). Firstly, with Ebm1D the pFKS obtains a cost function similar to the adjoint method with highly reduced computational cost, while an ensemble transform Kalman filter with an m = 60 ensemble size (ETKF60) behaves slightly worse. The pIKS behaves worse than the ETKF60, but an ETKF10 (m = 10) is even worst. Accordingly, with CESM we evaluate the pKFS and the ETKF60 along with an ETKF with Gaussian Anamorphosis (ETKF-GA60). From all the options, the pFKS has the lowest cost function and seems the favored overall option under heavy computational restrictions, but the ETKF obtains better estimates of the flux term.

Description: In this study, high-resolution bathymetric multibeam and optical image data, both obtained within the Belgian manganese (Mn) nodule mining license area by the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Abyss, were combined in order to create a predictive random forests (RF) machine learning model. AUV bathymetry reveals small-scale terrain variations, allowing slope estimations and calculation of bathymetric derivatives such as slope, curvature, and ruggedness. Optical AUV imagery provides quantitative information regarding the distribution (number and median size) of Mn nodules. Within the area considered in this study, Mn nodules show a heterogeneous and spatially clustered pattern, and their number per square meter is negatively correlated with their median size. A prediction of the number of Mn nodules was achieved by combining information derived from the acoustic and optical data using a RF model. This model was tuned by examining the influence of the training set size, the number of growing trees (ntree), and the number of predictor variables to be randomly selected at each node (mtry) on the RF prediction accuracy. The use of larger training data sets with higher ntree and mtry values increases the accuracy. To estimate the Mn-nodule abundance, these predictions were linked to ground-truth data acquired by box coring. Linking optical and hydroacoustic data revealed a nonlinear relationship between the Mn-nodule distribution and topographic characteristics. This highlights the importance of a detailed terrain reconstruction for a predictive modeling of Mn-nodule abundance. In addition, this study underlines the necessity of a sufficient spatial distribution of the optical data to provide reliable modeling input for the RF.

Description: Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970–1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.