Description: Forests worldwide are threatened by various environmental and anthropogenic hazards, especially tropical forests. Knowledge on the impacts of these hazards on forest structure and dynamics has been compiled in empirical studies. However, the results of these studies are often not sufficient for long-term projections and extrapolations to large spatial scales especially for unprecedented environmental conditions, which require both the identification and understanding of key underlying processes. Forest models bridge this gap by incorporating multiple ecological processes in a dynamic framework (i.e. including a realistic model structure) and addressing the complexity of forest ecosystems. Here, we describe the evolution of the individual-based and process-based forest gap model FORMIND and its application to tropical forests. At its core, the model includes physiological processes on tree level (photosynthesis, respiration, tree growth, mortality, regeneration, competition). During the past two decades, FORMIND has been used to address various scientific questions arising from different forest types by continuously extending the model structure. The model applications thus provided understanding in three main aspects: (1) the grouping of single tree species into plant functional types is a successful approach to reduce complexity in vegetation models, (2) structural realism was necessary to analyze impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances such as logging, fragmentation, or drought, and (3) complex ecological processes such as carbon fluxes in tropical forests – starting from the individual tree level up to the entire forest ecosystem – can be explored as a function of forest structure, species composition and disturbance regime. Overall, this review shows how the evolution of long-term modelling projects not only provides scientific understanding of forest ecosystems, but also provides benefits for ecological theory and empirical study design.

Description: Reliable statements about variability and change in marine ecosystems and their underlying causes are needed to report on their status and to guide management. Here we use the Framework on Ocean Observing (FOO) to begin developing ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables (eEOVs) for the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). An eEOV is a defined biological or ecological quantity, which is derived from field observations, and which contributes significantly to assessments of Southern Ocean ecosystems. Here, assessments are concerned with estimating status and trends in ecosystem properties, attribution of trends to causes, and predicting future trajectories. eEOVs should be feasible to collect at appropriate spatial and temporal scales and are useful to the extent that they contribute to direct estimation of trends and/or attribution, and/or development of ecological (statistical or simulation) models to support assessments. In this paper we outline the rationale, including establishing a set of criteria, for selecting eEOVs for the SOOS and develop a list of candidate eEOVs for further evaluation. Other than habitat variables, nine types of eEOVs for Southern Ocean taxa are identified within three classes: state (magnitude, genetic/species, size spectrum), predator–prey (diet, foraging range), and autecology (phenology, reproductive rate, individual growth rate, detritus). Most candidates for the suite of Southern Ocean taxa relate to state or diet. Candidate autecological eEOVs have not been developed other than for marine mammals and birds.Wec onsider some of the spatial and temporal issues that will influence the adoption and use of eEOVs in an observing system in the Southern Ocean, noting that existing operations and platforms potentially provide coverage of the four main sectors of the region—the East and West Pacific, Atlantic and Indian. Lastly, we discuss the importance of simulation modelling in helping with the design of the observing system in the long term. Regional boundary: south of 30°S.

Description: We compare and contrast the ecological impacts of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on polar and sub-polar marine ecosystems. Circulation patterns differ strikingly between the north and south. Meridional circulation in the north provides connections between the sub-Arctic and Arctic despite the presence of encircling continental landmasses, whereas annular circulation patterns in the south tend to isolate Antarctic surface waters from those in the north. These differences influence fundamental aspects of the polar ecosystems from the amount, thickness and duration of sea ice, to the types of organisms, and the ecology of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Meridional flows in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans transport heat, nutrients, and plankton northward into the Chukchi Sea, the Barents Sea, and the seas off the west coast of Greenland. In the North Atlantic, the advected heat warms the waters of the southern Barents Sea and, with advected nutrients and plankton, supports immense biomasses of fish, seabirds and marine mammals. On the Pacific side of the Arctic, cold waters flowing northward across the northern Bering and Chukchi seas during winter and spring limit the ability of boreal fish species to take advantage of high seasonal production there. Southward flow of cold Arctic waters into sub-Arctic regions of the North Atlantic occurs mainly through Fram Strait with less through the Barents Sea and the Canadian Archipelago. In the Pacific, the transport of Arctic waters and plankton southward through Bering Strait is minimal. In the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its associated fronts are barriers to the southward dispersal of plankton and pelagic fishes from sub-Antarctic waters, with the consequent evolution of Antarctic zooplankton and fish species largely occurring in isolation from those to the north. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current also disperses biota throughout the Southern Ocean, and as a result, the biota tends to be similar within a given broad latitudinal band. South of the Southern Boundary of the ACC, there is a large-scale divergence that brings nutrient-rich water to the surface. This divergence, along with more localized upwelling regions and deep vertical convection in winter, generates elevated nutrient levels throughout the Antarctic at the end of austral winter. However, such elevated nutrient levels do not support elevated phytoplankton productivity through the entire Southern Ocean, as iron concentrations are rapidly removed to limiting levels by spring blooms in deep waters. However, coastal regions, with the upward mixing of iron, maintain greatly enhanced rates of production, especially in coastal polynyas. In these coastal areas, elevated primary production supports large biomasses of zooplankton, fish, seabirds, and mammals. As climate warming affects these advective processes and their heat content, there will likely be major changes in the distribution and abundance of polar biota, in particular the biota dependent on sea ice.