Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html. Key Points: - This study presents the evolution of 10 ocean acidification (OA) indicators in the global surface ocean from 1750 to 2100 - By leveraging 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) and the latest observational data, it represents a significant advancement in OA projections - This inter-model comparison effort showcases the overall agreements among different ESMs in projecting surface ocean carbon variables

Description: In nature, insects concurrently face multiple environmental stressors, a scenario likely increasing with climate change. Integrated stress resistance (ISR) thus often improves fitness and could drive invasiveness, but how physiological mechanisms influence invasion has lacked examination. Here, we investigated cross tolerance to abiotic stress factors which may influence range limits in the South American tomato pinworm – a global invader that is an ecologically and socially damaging crop pest. Specifically, we tested the effects of prior rapid cold- and heat-hardening (RCH and RHH), fasting and desiccation on cold and heat tolerance traits, as well as starvation and desiccation survivability between T. absoluta life stages. Acclimation effects on critical thermal minima (CTmin) and maxima (CTmax) were inconsistent, showing significantly deleterious effects of RCH on adult CTmax and CTmin and, conversely, beneficial acclimation effects of RCH on larval CTmin. While no beneficial effects of desiccation acclimation were recorded for desiccation tolerance, fasted individuals had significantly higher survival in adults, whereas fasting negatively affected larval tolerances. Furthermore, fasted and desiccation acclimated adults had significantly higher starvation tolerance, showing strong evidence for cross-tolerance. Our results show context-dependent ISR traits that may promote T. absoluta fitness and competitiveness. Given the frequent overlapping occurrence of these divergent stressors, ISR reported here may thus partly elucidate the observed rapid global spread of T. absoluta into more stressful environments than expected. This information is vital in determining the underpinnings of multi-stressor responses, which are fundamental in forecasting species responses to changing environments and management responses.

Description: Coastal oceans are particularly affected by rapid and extreme environmental changes with dramatic consequences for the entire ecosystem. Seagrasses are key ecosystem engineering or foundation species supporting diverse and productive ecosystems along the coastline that are particularly susceptible to fast environmental changes. In this context, the analysis of phenotypic plasticity could reveal important insights into seagrasses persistence, as it represents an individual property that allows species’ phenotypes to accommodate and react to fast environmental changes and stress. Many studies have provided different definitions of plasticity and related processes (acclimation and adaptation) resulting in a variety of associated terminology. Here, we review different ways to define phenotypic plasticity with particular reference to seagrass responses to single and multiple stressors. We relate plasticity to the shape of reaction norms, resulting from genotype by environment interactions, and examine its role in the presence of environmental shifts. The potential role of genetic and epigenetic changes in underlying seagrasses plasticity in face of environmental changes is also discussed. Different approaches aimed to assess local acclimation and adaptation in seagrasses are explored, explaining strengths and weaknesses based on the main results obtained from the most recent literature. We conclude that the implemented experimental approaches, whether performed with controlled or field experiments, provide new insights to explore the basis of plasticity in seagrasses. However, an improvement of molecular analysis and the application of multi‐factorial experiments are required to better explore genetic and epigenetic adjustments to rapid environmental shifts. These considerations revealed the potential for selecting the best phenotypes to promote assisted evolution with fundamental implications on restoration and preservation efforts.

Description: Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science - a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline - the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. 'non-native', 'alien', 'invasive' or 'invader', 'exotic', 'non-indigenous', 'naturalised', 'pest') to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms (i) 'non-native', denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, (ii) 'established non-native', i.e. those non-native species that have established self-sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and (iii) 'invasive non-native' - populations of established non-native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising 'spread' for classifying invasiveness and 'impact' for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on (i) dispersal mechanism, (ii) species origin, (iii) population status, and (iv) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non-native species.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: Gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora, and Urochordata, namely, Thaliacea) are ubiquitous members of plankton communities linking primary production to higher trophic levels and the deep ocean by serving as food and transferring “jelly‐carbon” (jelly‐C) upon bloom collapse. Global biomass within the upper 200 m reaches 0.038 Pg C, which, with a 2–12 months life span, serves as the lower limit for annual jelly‐C production. Using over 90,000 data points from 1934 to 2011 from the Jellyfish Database Initiative as an indication of global biomass (JeDI: http://jedi.nceas.ucsb.edu, http://www.bco‐dmo.org/dataset/526852), upper ocean jelly‐C biomass and production estimates, organism vertical migration, jelly‐C sinking rates, and water column temperature profiles from GLODAPv2, we quantitatively estimate jelly‐C transfer efficiency based on Longhurst Provinces. From the upper 200 m production estimate of 0.038 Pg C year−1, 59–72% reaches 500 m, 46–54% reaches 1,000 m, 43–48% reaches 2,000 m, 32–40% reaches 3,000 m, and 25–33% reaches 4,500 m. This translates into ~0.03, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.01 Pg C year−1, transferred down to 500, 1,000, 2,000, and 4,500 m, respectively. Jelly‐C fluxes and transfer efficiencies can occasionally exceed phytodetrital‐based sediment trap estimates in localized open ocean and continental shelves areas under large gelatinous blooms or jelly‐C mass deposition events, but this remains ephemeral and transient in nature. This transfer of fast and permanently exported carbon reaching the ocean interior via jelly‐C constitutes an important component of the global biological soft‐tissue pump, and should be addressed in ocean biogeochemical models, in particular, at the local and regional scale.

Description: 1. Biological invasions, especially invasive alien aquatic plants, are a major and growing ecological and socioeconomic problem worldwide. Freshwater systems are particularly vulnerable to invasion, where impacts of invasive alien species can damage ecological structure and function. Identifying abiotic and biotic factors that mediate successful invasions is a management priority. Our aim was to determine the environmental correlates of Elodea nuttallii; a globally significant invasive aquatic species. 2. Elodea nuttallii presence/absence (occurrence), extent (patch area) and percentage cover (density) was visually assessed from a boat throughout Lough Erne (approximately 144 km2), County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland during the active summer growth season (July–September). In addition, substrate type and zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha occurrence was recorded. Fourteen water chemistry variables were collected monthly from 12 recording stations throughout the lake during the 9 years before the survey to spatially interpolate values and establish temporal trajectories in their change. Shoreline land use was derived from CORINE land cover maps. Environmental associations between E. nuttallii, substrate, D. polymorpha, water chemistry and land use were assessed. 3. Elodea nuttallii occurrence was positively associated with water conductivity, alkalinity, suspended solids, phosphorus (both total and soluble) and chlorophyll-a concentrations, but negatively associated with pH and total oxidised nitrogen. E. nuttallii patch extent and proportional cover were positively associated, to varying degrees, with the presence of D. polymorpha, biological oxygen demand, water clarity and soft substrate, but negatively associated with urban development and ammonium. 4. Elodea nuttallii displayed high levels of phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental variation, allowing it to adapt to a wide range of conditions and potentially gain competitive advantage over native or other invasive macrophytes. 5. It is evident that multiple abiotic and biotic factors, including facilitation by co-occurring invasive dreissenid mussels, interact to influence the distribution and abundance of E. nuttallii. Thus, it is necessary to consider a more comprehensive environmental context when planning Elodea management strategies.

Description: Introduced Marine Pests (IMP, = non-indigenous marine species) prevention, early detection and risk-based management strategies have become the priority for biosecurity operations worldwide, in recognition of the fact that, once established, the effective management of marine pests can rapidly become cost prohibitive or impractical. In Western Australia (WA), biosecurity management is guided by the " Western Australian Prevention List for Introduced Marine Pests " which is a policy tool that details species or genera as being of high risk to the region. This list forms the basis of management efforts to prevent introduction of these species, monitoring efforts to detect them at an early stage, and rapid response should they be detected. It is therefore essential that the species listed can be rapid and confidently identified and discriminated from native species by a range of government and industry stakeholders. Recognising that identification of these species requires very specialist expertise which may be in short supply and not readily accessible in a regulatory environment, and the fact that much publicly available data is not verifiable or suitable for regulatory enforcement, the WA government commissioned the current project to collate a reference collection of these marine pest specimens. In this work, we thus established collaboration with researchers worldwide in order to source representative specimens of the species listed. Our main objective was to build a reference collection of taxonomically vouchered specimens and subsequently to generate species-specific DNA barcodes suited to supporting their future identification. To date, we were able to obtain specimens of 75 species (representative of all but four of the pests listed) which have been identified by experts and placed with the WA Government Department of Fisheries and, where possible, in accessible museums and institutions in Australasia. The reference collection supports the fast and reliable taxonomic and molecular identification of marine pests in WA and constitutes a valuable resource for training of stakeholders with interest in IMP recognition in Australia. The reference collection is also useful in supporting the development of a variety of DNA-based detection strategies such as real-time PCR and metabarcoding of complex environmental samples (e.g. biofouling communities). The Prevention List is under regular review to ensure its continued relevance and that it remains evidence and risk-based. Similarly, its associated reference collection also remains to some extent a work in progress. In recognition of this fact, this report seeks to provide details of this continually evolving information repository publicly available to the biosecurity management community worldwide

Description: Polar marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Warming temperatures, freshening seawater, and disruption to sea-ice formation potentially all have cascading effects on food webs. New approaches are needed to better understand spatiotemporal interactions among biogeochemical processes at the base of Southern Ocean food webs. In marine systems, isoscapes (models of the spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition) of carbon and nitrogen have proven useful in identifying spatial variation in a range of biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient utilization by phytoplankton. Isoscapes provide a baseline for interpreting stable isotope compositions of higher trophic level animals in movement, migration, and diet research. Here, we produce carbon and nitrogen isoscapes across the entire Southern Ocean (〉40°S) using surface particulate organic matter isotope data, collected over the past 50 years. We use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-based approaches to predict mean annual isoscapes and four seasonal isoscapes using a suite of environmental data as predictor variables. Clear spatial gradients in δ13C and δ15N values were predicted across the Southern Ocean, consistent with previous statistical and mechanistic views of isotopic variability in this region. We identify strong seasonal variability in both carbon and nitrogen isoscapes, with key implications for the use of static or annual average isoscape baselines in animal studies attempting to document seasonal migratory or foraging behaviors.