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A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era (2017)

Emile-Geay, Julien ; McKay, Nicholas P. ; Kaufman, Darrell S. ; [weitere]

Nature Publishing Group

In: EPIC3Scientific Data, Nature Publishing Group, 4(170088), pp. 1-33, ISSN: 2052-4463

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Publikationsdatum: 2017-07-21

Beschreibung: Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut

Materialart: Article , isiRev

Format: application/pdf

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Bayesian parameter estimation and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width (2013)

Tolwinski-Ward, S. E. ; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ; Evans, Michael N.

Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union

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Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25

Beschreibung: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Climate of the Past 9 (2013): 1481-1493, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1481-2013.

Beschreibung: We present a Bayesian model for estimating the parameters of the VS-Lite forward model of tree-ring width for a particular chronology and its local climatology. The scheme also provides information about the uncertainty of the parameter estimates, as well as the model error in representing the observed proxy time series. By inferring VS-Lite's parameters independently for synthetically generated ring-width series at several hundred sites across the United States, we show that the algorithm is skillful. We also infer optimal parameter values for modeling observed ring-width data at the same network of sites. The estimated parameter values covary in physical space, and their locations in multidimensional parameter space provide insight into the dominant climatic controls on modeled tree-ring growth at each site as well as the stability of those controls. The estimation procedure is useful for forward and inverse modeling studies using VS-Lite to quantify the full range of model uncertainty stemming from its parameterization.

Beschreibung: This work was supported in part by an American Association of University Women Dissertation Fellowship and grants NSF ATM-0724802, NSF ATM-0902715, NSF DMS- 1204892, and NOAA NA060OAR4310115.

Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

Materialart: Article

Format: application/zip