Description: Observational estimates and numerical models both indicate a significant overall decline in marine oxygen levels over the past few decades. Spatial patterns of oxygen change, however, differ considerably between observed and modelled estimates. Particularly in the tropical thermocline that hosts open-ocean oxygen minimum zones, observations indicate a general oxygen decline, whereas most of the state-of-the-art models simulate increasing oxygen levels. Possible reasons for the apparent model-data discrepancies are examined. In order to attribute observed historical variations in oxygen levels, we here study mechanisms of changes in oxygen supply and consumption with sensitivity model simulations. Specifically, the role of equatorial jets, of lateral and diapycnal mixing processes, of changes in the wind-driven circulation and atmospheric nutrient supply, and of some poorly constrained biogeochemical processes are investigated. Predominantly wind-driven changes in the low-latitude oceanic ventilation are identified as a possible factor contributing to observed oxygen changes in the low-latitude thermocline during the past decades, while the potential role of biogeochemical processes remains difficult to constrain. We discuss implications for the attribution of observed oxygen changes to anthropogenic impacts and research priorities that may help to improve our mechanistic understanding of oxygen changes and the quality of projections into a changing future.

Description: Direct observations indicate that the global ocean oxygen inventory is decreasing. Climate models consistently confirm this decline and predict continuing and accelerating ocean deoxygenation. However, current models (1) do not reproduce observed patterns for oxygen changes in the ocean’s thermocline; (2) underestimate the temporal variability of oxygen concentrations and air–sea fluxes inferred from time-series observations; and (3) generally simulate only about half the oceanic oxygen loss inferred from observations. We here review current knowledge about the mechanisms and drivers of oxygen changes and their variation with region and depth over the world’s oceans. Warming is considered a major driver: in part directly, via solubility effects, and in part indirectly, via changes in circulation, mixing and oxygen respiration. While solubility effects have been quantified and found to dominate deoxygenation near the surface, a quantitative understanding of contributions from other mechanisms is still lacking. Current models may underestimate deoxygenation because of unresolved transport processes, unaccounted for variations in respiratory oxygen demand, or missing biogeochemical feedbacks. Dedicated observational programmes are required to better constrain biological and physical processes and their representation in models to improve our understanding and predictions of patterns and intensity of future oxygen change.

Description: Ocean observations carried out in the framework of the Collaborative Research Center 754 (SFB 754) "Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean" are used to study (1) the structure of tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), (2) the processes that contribute to the oxygen budget, and (3) long-term changes in the oxygen distribution. The OMZ of the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA), located between the well-ventilated subtropical gyre and the equatorial oxygen maximum, is composed of a deep OMZ at about 400 m depth with its core region centred at about 20° W, 10° N and a shallow OMZ at about 100 m depth with lowest oxygen concentrations in proximity to the coastal upwelling region off Mauritania and Senegal. The oxygen budget of the deep OMZ is given by oxygen consumption mainly balanced by the oxygen supply due to meridional eddy fluxes (about 60%) and vertical mixing (about 20%, locally up to 30%). Advection by zonal jets is crucial for the establishment of the equatorial oxygen maximum. In the latitude range of the deep OMZ, it dominates the oxygen supply in the upper 300 to 400 m and generates the intermediate oxygen maximum between deep and shallow OMZs. Water mass ages from transient tracers indicate substantially older water masses in the core of the deep OMZ (about 120–180 years) compared to regions north and south of it. The deoxygenation of the ETNA OMZ during recent decades suggests a substantial imbalance in the oxygen budget: about 10% of the oxygen consumption during that period was not balanced by ventilation. Long-term oxygen observations show variability on interannual, decadal and multidecadal time scales that can partly be attributed to circulation changes. In comparison to the ETNA OMZ the eastern tropical South Pacific OMZ shows a similar structure including an equatorial oxygen maximum driven by zonal advection, but overall much lower oxygen concentrations approaching zero in extended regions. As the shape of the OMZs is set by ocean circulation, the widespread misrepresentation of the intermediate circulation in ocean circulation models substantially contributes to their oxygen bias, which might have significant impacts on predictions of future oxygen levels.

Description: The Antarctic continental shelves and slopes occupy relatively small areas, but, nevertheless, are important for global climate, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem functioning. Processes of water mass transformation through sea ice formation/melting and ocean–atmosphere interaction are key to the formation of deep and bottom waters as well as determining the heat flux beneath ice shelves. Climate models, however, struggle to capture these physical processes and are unable to reproduce water mass properties of the region. Dynamics at the continental slope are key for correctly modelling climate, yet their small spatial scale presents challenges both for ocean modelling and for observational studies. Cross-slope exchange processes are also vital for the flux of nutrients such as iron from the continental shelf into the mixed layer of the Southern Ocean. An iron-cycling model embedded in an eddy-permitting ocean model reveals the importance of sedimentary iron in fertilizing parts of the Southern Ocean. Ocean gliders play a key role in improving our ability to observe and understand these small-scale processes at the continental shelf break. The Gliders: Excellent New Tools for Observing the Ocean (GENTOO) project deployed three Seagliders for up to two months in early 2012 to sample the water to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula in unprecedented temporal and spatial detail. The glider data resolve small-scale exchange processes across the shelf-break front (the Antarctic Slope Front) and the front's biogeochemical signature. GENTOO demonstrated the capability of ocean gliders to play a key role in a future multi-disciplinary Southern Ocean observing system.

Description: Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO) associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 yr. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 yr, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is –0.066 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO2-induced climate change. However, the pattern correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 yr. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO2-induced enhancement of the C : N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.027 to –0.047 μmol kg−1 yr−1 for climatological wind forcing, with a much larger range of –0.083 to +0.027 μmol kg−1 yr−1 for different initializations of sensitivity runs with reanalysis wind forcing. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to some extent, magnitude of observed ocean deoxygenation, this degree of realism does not necessarily apply to simulated regional patterns and the representation of processes involved in their generation. Further analysis of the processes that can explain the discrepancies between observed and modeled DO trends is required to better understand the climate sensitivity of oceanic oxygen fields and predict potential DO changes in the future.

Description: A surface diurnal warm layer is diagnosed from Seaglider observations, and develops on half the days in the CINDY/DYNAMO Indian Ocean experiment. The diurnal warm layer occurs on days of high solar radiation flux (〉 80 W m−2) and low wind speed (〈 6 m s−1), and preferentially in the inactive stage of the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Its diurnal harmonic has an exponential vertical structure with a depth scale of 4–5 m (dependent on chlorophyll concentration), consistent with forcing by absorption of solar radiation. The effective sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly due to the diurnal warm layer often reaches 0.8°C in the afternoon, with a daily mean of 0.2°C, rectifying the diurnal cycle onto longer time scales. This SST anomaly drives an anomalous flux of 4 W m−2 that cools the ocean. Alternatively, in a climate model where this process is unresolved, this represents an erroneous flux that warms the ocean. A simple model predicts a diurnal warm layer to occur on 30–50% of days across the tropical warm pool. On the remaining days, with low solar radiation and high wind speeds, a residual diurnal cycle is observed by the Seaglider, with a diurnal harmonic of temperature that decreases linearly with depth. As wind speed increases, this already weak temperature gradient decreases further, tending towards isothermal conditions.

Description: The exchange of water masses across the Antarctic continental shelf break regulates the export of dense shelf waters to depth as well as the transport of warm, mid-depth waters towards ice shelves and glacial grounding lines1. The penetration of the warmer mid-depth waters past the shelf break has been implicated in the pronounced loss of ice shelf mass over much of west Antarctica2, 3, 4. In high-resolution, regional circulation models, the Antarctic shelf break hosts an energetic mesoscale eddy field5, 6, but observations that capture this mesoscale variability have been limited. Here we show, using hydrographic data collected from ocean gliders, that eddy-induced transport is a primary contributor to mass and property fluxes across the slope. Measurements along ten cross-shelf hydrographic sections show a complex velocity structure and a stratification consistent with an onshore eddy mass flux. We show that the eddy transport and the surface wind-driven transport make comparable contributions to the total overturning circulation. Eddy-induced transport is concentrated in the warm, intermediate layers away from frictional boundaries. We conclude that understanding mesoscale dynamics will be critical for constraining circumpolar heat fluxes and future rates of retreat of Antarctic ice shelves.

Description: The supply of oxygen-rich water to the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) of the eastern North and South Pacific via zonal tropical currents is investigated using shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler and hydrographic section data. Near the equator, the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), Northern and Southern Subsurface Countercurrents (SCCs), and the Northern and Southern Intermediate Countercurrents (ICCs) all carry water that is oxygen richer than adjacent westward flows, thereby providing a net oxygen supply to the eastern Pacific OMZs. The synoptic velocity-weighted oxygen concentration difference between eastward and westward flows is typically 10–50 μmol kg−1. Subthermocline zonal oxygen fluxes reflect decreasing oxygen concentrations of the EUC, the SCCs, and the ICCs as they flow eastward. Approximately 30 year time series in well-sampled regions of the equatorial Pacific show oxygen content decreasing as rapidly as −0.55 μmol kg−1 yr−1 in the major oxygen supply paths of the OMZs for a 200–700 m layer and similar trends for a density layer spanning roughly these depths. This finding is in gross agreement with climate models, which generally predict expanding OMZs.

Description: During the CINDY–DYNAMO field campaign of September 2011–January 2012, a Seaglider was deployed at 80°E and completed 10 north-south sections between 3 and 4°S, measuring temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen concentration, and chlorophyll fluorescence. These high-resolution subsurface observations provide insight into equatorial ocean Rossby wave activity forced by three Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events during this time period. These Rossby waves generate variability in temperature O(1°C), salinity O(0.2 g kg−1), density O(0.2 kg m−3), and oxygen concentration O(10 μmol kg−1), associated with 10 m vertical displacements of the thermocline. The variability extends down to 1000 m, the greatest depth of the Seaglider observations, highlighting the importance of surface forcing for the deep equatorial ocean. The temperature variability observed by the Seaglider is greater than that simulated in the ECCO-JPL reanalysis, especially at depth. There is also marked variability in chlorophyll fluorescence at the surface and at the depth of the chlorophyll maximum. Upwelling from Rossby waves and local wind stress curl leads to an enhanced shoaling of the chlorophyll maximum by 10–25 m in response to the increased availability of nutrients and light. This influence of the MJO on primary production via equatorial ocean Rossby waves has not previously been recognized.