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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: The adjoint method is used to calibrate the medium complexity climate model "Planet Simulator" through parameter estimation. Identical twin experiments demonstrate that this method can retrieve default values of the control parameters when using a long assimilation window of the order of 2 months. Chaos synchronization through nudging, required to overcome limits in the temporal assimilation window in the adjoint method, is employed successfully to reach this assimilation window length. When assimilating ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the observations of air temperature and the radiative fluxes are the most important data for adjusting the control parameters. The global mean net longwave fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere are significantly improved by tuning two model parameters controlling the absorption of clouds and water vapor. The global mean net shortwave radiation at the surface is improved by optimizing three model parameters controlling cloud optical properties. The optimized parameters improve the free model (without nudging terms) simulation in a way similar to that in the assimilation experiments. Results suggest a promising way for tuning uncertain parameters in non-linear coupled climate models.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 1015.4 kBytes
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.
    Description: Published
    Description: 891–907
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Intercomparison and evaluation of the global ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) fields estimated from a suite of major ocean syntheses are conducted. Compared with the reference MLDs calculated from individual profiles, MLDs calculated from monthly mean and gridded profiles show negative biases of 10–20 m in early spring related to the re-stratification process of relatively deep mixed layers. Vertical resolution of profiles also influences the MLD estimation. MLDs are underestimated by approximately 5–7 (14–16) m with the vertical resolution of 25 (50) m when the criterion of potential density exceeding the 10-m value by 0.03 kg m−3 is used for the MLD estimation. Using the larger criterion (0.125 kg m−3) generally reduces the underestimations. In addition, positive biases greater than 100 m are found in wintertime subpolar regions when MLD criteria based on temperature are used. Biases of the reanalyses are due to both model errors and errors related to differences between the assimilation methods. The result shows that these errors are partially cancelled out through the ensemble averaging. Moreover, the bias in the ensemble mean field of the reanalyses is smaller than in the observation-only analyses. This is largely attributed to comparably higher resolutions of the reanalyses. The robust reproduction of both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by the ensemble mean of the reanalyses indicates a great potential of the ensemble mean MLD field for investigating and monitoring upper ocean processes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 753–773
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 14
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    COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
    In:  EPIC3Cryosphere, COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 11, pp. 2265-2281, ISSN: 1994-0416
    Publication Date: 2017-11-06
    Description: Satellite sea ice concentrations (SICs), together with several ocean parameters, are assimilated into a regional Arctic coupled ocean–sea ice model covering the period of 2000–2008 using the adjoint method. There is substantial improvement in the representation of the SIC spatial distribution, in particular with respect to the position of the ice edge and to the concentrations in the central parts of the Arctic Ocean during summer months. Seasonal cycles of total Arctic sea ice area show an overall improvement. During summer months, values of sea ice extent (SIE) integrated over the model domain become underestimated compared to observations, but absolute differences of mean SIE to the data are reduced in nearly all months and years. Along with the SICs, the sea ice thickness fields also become closer to observations, providing added value by the assimilation. Very sparse ocean data in the Arctic, corresponding to a very small contribution to the cost function, prevent sizable improvements of assimilated ocean variables, with the exception of the sea surface temperature.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: We present an Arctic ocean–sea ice reanalysis covering the period 2007–2016 based on the adjoint approach of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium. The spatiotemporal variation of Arctic sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration (SIC), and sea ice thickness (SIT) is substantially improved after the assimilation of ocean and sea ice observations. By assimilating additional World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18) hydrographic data, the freshwater content of the Canadian Basin becomes closer to the observations and translates into changes of the ocean circulation and of transports through the Fram and Davis straits. This new reanalysis compares well with previous filter‐based (TOPAZ4) and nudging‐based (PIOMAS) reanalyses regarding SIC and SST. Benefiting from using the adjoint of the sea ice model, our reanalysis is superior to the ECCOv4r4 product considering sea ice parameters. However, the mean state and variability of the freshwater content and the transport properties of our reanalysis remain different from TOPAZ4 and ECCOv4r4, likely because of a lack of hydrographic observations.
    Description: Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly and reached a record minimum in September, 2012. Arctic ocean–sea ice reanalyses are invaluable sources for understanding the Arctic sea ice changes. We produce an Arctic ocean–sea ice reanalysis of the years 2007–2016 using the adjoint method. The reanalysis is dynamically consistent without introducing unphysical mass and energy discontinuities as in filter‐based data assimilation methods.
    Keywords: 551 ; adjoint method ; data assimilation ; ocean–sea ice reanalysis
    Type: article
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2017-07-10
    Description: We investigate sea level trends and variability as reconstructed from tide gauge data and ocean data assimilations (ODA) over the last 60 years. Tide gauge reconstructions (TGR) are mostly based on statistical approaches using selected EOFs, or trained from variability patterns, from altimetric sea level and tide gauge data to extrapolate regional sea level evolution backward in time. Reconstructions also exist from dynamical ocean modeling approaches with and without data assimilation. We intercompare all results and provide ensemble mean and ensemble spreads to describe estimates of past regional sea level changes and their uncertainties.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: The paper describes an update of the GECCO (German contribution to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project) ocean synthesis, now in its version 3, and provides an evaluation of the results with assimilated and independent data. GECCO3 covers the 71-year period 1948–2018 and differs from its predecessor by returning to a single assimilation window instead of partitioning the period in 5-year-long overlapping windows which was previously necessary to yield convergence. A solution to the convergence problem is presented. GECCO3 is intended to be used for the initialization of coupled climate models and is configured for the higher-resolution version of the earth system model (MPI-ESM) developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. It uses the bathymetry and grid of the MPI-ESM with quasi-uniform resolution of 0.4°, thereby providing the first global eddy-permitting synthesis based on the adjoint method. The synthesis additionally features the estimation of various mixing parameters and can regionally choose between explicit or parametrized eddy fluxes. Except for the altimeter data in tropical regions, GECCO3 is in better agreement with the assimilated data than GECCO2. The improvements relative to the in situ data partly result from the much larger amount of Argo data, which show lower model–data differences. Global heat content changes are in good agreement with recent estimates, but show uptake almost exclusively in the top 700 m. An alternative version of GECCO3, created by starting from different first-guess control parameters, was used to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and state due to lack of convergence. This estimate suggests a large uncertainty related to the uptake of heat into the lower layers, while estimates of mean meridional transport of heat and freshwater are not affected.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; 551.46 ; climate model initialization ; eddy-permitting ocean synthesis ; heat content change ; ocean transports
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Regional freshwater content (FWC) changes are studied over the period 1961–2018 using the GECCO3 ocean synthesis. In four dynamically distinct regions of the Atlantic, the study identifies causes for FWC variability with a focus on interannual and decadal time‐scale changes. Results show that in each region, it is a combination of the surface freshwater flux and the net freshwater transport across the region's boundaries that act jointly in changing the respective FWC. Surface flux mainly contributes to the FWC variability on multi‐decadal time scales. The impact of surface flux also increases toward the tropics. On shorter time scales, it is especially horizontal transport fluctuations, leading to FWC changes in mid and high latitudes. Going from north to the south, the transport across a single meridional boundary becomes less correlated with the FWC changes but the net transport across both boundaries plays an increasingly important role. Moreover, the subpolar box is mainly gyre driven, which differs from the other two, essentially overturning driven, North Atlantic boxes. In the tropical Atlantic, the shallow overturning cell and the deep overturning contribute about equal amounts to the freshwater variations.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Causes for freshwater content (FWC) variability in the Atlantic Ocean are analyzed for four study areas over the period 1961–2018 based on a model simulation (GECCO3 ocean synthesis). Targeting relatively long time scales, interannual, decadal to multi‐decadal FWC changes are separated into the contributions from variations of the freshwater input/output through the ocean surface and from freshwater transport (FWT) variations related to the ocean circulation changes. Surface freshwater flux is more influential on multi‐decadal time scales, and its impact increases toward the tropics. On shorter time scales, the oceanic FWT across the boundaries of the region dominates the FWC changes in mid and high latitudes. The transport variability in the subpolar region is mainly driven by the horizontal circulation, while transports resulting from vertical salinity differences are more important at lower latitudes. Moreover, in the tropics transports related to shallow salinity differences are not negligible on interannual time scales.
    Description: Key Points: The net freshwater transport across the meridional boundaries dominates the freshwater content variations in mid and high latitudes. The importance of surface freshwater flux variations increases toward the tropics and on multi‐decadal time scales. Subpolar changes are mainly gyre driven, while overturning and especially the shallow overturning cells contribute more at lower latitudes.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/gecco3.html
    Description: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download-en4-2-2.html
    Description: https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/icdc/data/atmosphere/hoaps.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.46 ; Atlantic Ocean ; freshwater content (FWC) ; regional changes ; GECCO3
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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