Description: The linear relation between the strength of the Agulhas Current at nominal latitude 34°S and the gradient in sea level height anomaly across the current is investigated in a 1/10° resolution regional numerical ocean model. Our results show that the strength of the current can be estimated with reasonable accuracy using altimeter data, once it has been calibrated using in-situ transport measurements. Three years of transport measurements provide a calibration with worst-case correlation R = 0.78. In that case the errors in proxy transport have a standard deviation of 9.8 Sv, compared to a 20.2 Sv standard deviation of the transport time series itself. From these results we conclude that the design of the Agulhas Current Timeseries (ACT) experiment, a three-year deployment of moorings across the Agulhas Current and along a TOPEX/Jason altimeter ground track, will likely produce a good quality multi-decadal time series of Agulhas Current strength.

Description: Key Points: - New observations show westward propagating salinity anomalies in S.Atlantic AAIW - They are the dominant form of variability on subdecadal timescales in a model - They have a speed close to the speed of second baroclinic mode Rossby waves Variability of Antarctic Intermediate Water salinity in the South Atlantic is investigated on interannual and intradecadal timescales. Novel observations of slow, westward propagating salinity anomalies in Argo data are presented. The features have no corresponding signal in temperature and are anomalous in density. Analysis of 40 years of model output supports the existence of these westward propagating salinity anomalies and indicates that they are typical occurrences in time. The features are intensified in a latitude band around 30°S associated with the propagation of Agulhas rings. However, the features are much larger than Agulhas rings and occur on decadal timescales in the model. They propagate westward with speeds of 2.3 cm/s in observations, and 1.7 cm/s in model data. They are more consistent with planetary waves than with the advection of large-scale salinity anomalies. The observation of these features has implications for the interpretation of salinity anomalies, such as the linking of hydrological cycle changes to salinity changes.

Description: The response of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) to the strengthening of Southern Hemisphere winds occurring since the 1950s is investigated with a global ocean model having a resolution of 1/12° in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current domain. The simulations expose regional differences in the relative importance of stochastic and wind-related contributions to inter-annual EKE changes. In the Pacific and Indian sectors the model captures the EKE variability observed since 1993 and confirms previous hypotheses of a lagged response to regional wind stress anomalies. Here, the multi-decadal trend in wind stress is reflected in an increase in EKE typically exceeding 5 cm2 sec-2 decade-1. In the western Atlantic EKE variability is mostly stochastic, is weakly correlated with wind fluctuations, and its multi-decadal trends are close to zero. The non-uniform distribution of wind-related changes in the eddy activity could affect the regional patterns of ocean circulation and biogeochemical responses to future climate change.

Description: If unstructured meshes are refined to locally represent eddy dynamics in ocean circulation models, a practical question arises on how to vary the resolution and where to deploy the refinement. We propose to use the observed sea surface height variability as the refinement criterion. We explore the utility of this method (i) in a suite of idealized experiments simulating a wind-driven double gyre flow in a stratified circular basin and (ii) in simulations of global ocean circulation performed with FESOM. Two practical approaches of mesh refinement are compared. In the first approach the uniform refinement is confined within the areas where the observed variability exceeds a given threshold. In the second one the refinement varies linearly following the observed variability. The resolution is fixed in time. For the double gyre case it is shown that the variability obtained in a high-resolution reference run can be well captured on variable-resolution meshes if they are refined where the variability is high and additionally upstream the jet separation point. The second approach of mesh refinement proves to be more beneficial in terms of improvement downstream the midlatitude jet. Similarly, in global ocean simulations the mesh refinement based on the observed variability helps the model to simulate high variability at correct locations. The refinement also leads to a reduced bias in the upper-ocean temperature

Description: An eddy-permitting circulation model of the Atlantic Ocean was used to study the effect of mesoscale processes on the uptake and spreading of anthropogenic CO2 and CFC-11. A comparison with a coarser-resolution model version shows anthropogenic tracer distributions with qualitatively similar patterns, but much more structure (e.g., stronger longitudinal gradients) in the eddy-permitting model, improving the agreement with observations. The better representation of the formation of water masses such as subpolar-mode water in the eddy-permitting model has an influence on the distribution of anthropogenic CO2 over density classes, but no influence on the total inventory taken up. In the subpolar Atlantic, the air-sea flux of CFC-11 is dominated by deep-water formation, while the air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO2 extends over a larger part of the subpolar gyre and has a clear association with North Atlantic surface currents. An in-depth analysis of the mechanisms shaping this distribution showed that the entrainment of water from below into the mixed layer determines the structure in the subpolar North Atlantic, whereas the temporal correlation between surface heat fluxes and mixed-layer depth is more important in the subtropical gyre. The northward, integrated heat and anthropogenic CO2 transports in midlatitudes are closely correlated on seasonal to interannual timescales. This has implications for using the ongoing monitoring arrays of the thermohaline circulation for estimation of the transport of anthropogenic CO2.

Description: Time series of transports in the Agulhas region have been constructed by simulating Lagrangian drifter trajectories in a 1/10 degree two-way nested ocean model. Using these 34 year long time series it is shown that smaller (larger) Agulhas Current transport leads to larger (smaller) Indian-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange. When transport is low, the Agulhas Current detaches farther downstream from the African continental slope. Moreover, the lower inertia suppresses generation of anti-cyclonic vorticity. These two effects cause the Agulhas retroflection to move westward and enhance Agulhas leakage. In the model a 1 Sv decrease in Agulhas Current transport at 32 degrees S results in a 0.7 +/- 0.2 Sv increase in Agulhas leakage

Description: AGU Chapman Conference: The Agulhas System and Its Role in Changing Ocean Circulation, Climate, and Marine Ecosystems; Stellenbosch, South Africa, 8–12 October 2012

Description: Multi-decadal weakening trend of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds since 1960 has reversed after 1993. The trend reversal has induced cooling (shallow thermocline) trend in the equatorial western Pacific before 1993, followed by a warming (deep thermocline) trend from 1993 to the present. All available atmospheric reanalysis products corroborate the trend reversal during the two multi-decadal periods. The magnitudes of the multi-decadal trends of the easterly winds, however, differ among the reanalysis products. The trend reversals of regional ocean circulations are assessed using linear regressions between wind and transport anomalies in an eddy-permitting numerical model, suggesting that since 1993 the Indonesian Throughflow and the Leeuwin Current transports have also reversed their multi-decadal weakening trends. Key Points: - There have been reversals of the multi-decadal weakening trends of trade winds - Different reanalysis products capture different trends in trade winds

Description: The temporal variability of the greater Agulhas Current system has important climatological consequences. Some recent results have suggested that this variability contains a large seasonal component, due to changes in the circulation at latitudes poleward of Madagascar only. A model simulation shows that the contribution of Tropical Surface Water to Agulhas Current waters, via the Mozambique Channel, also has a distinct seasonal characteristic that is brought about by the seasonal wind stress over the tropical Indian Ocean. This simulated flow through the Channel contributes substantially to the seasonality of the Agulhas Current. This model result is shown to be not inconsistent with available hydrographic observations.

Description: Interocean exchange of heat and salt around South Africa is thought to be a key link in the maintenance of the global overturning circulation of the ocean. It takes place at the Agulhas Retroflection, largely by the intermittent shedding of enormous rings that penetrate into the South Atlantic Ocean. This makes it extremely hard to estimate the inter ocean fluxes. Estimates of direct Agulhas leakage from hydrographic and tracer data range between 2 and 10 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The average ring shedding frequency, determined from satellite information, is approximately six rings per year. Their associated interocean volume transport is between 0.5 and 1.5 Sv per ring. A number of Agulhas rings have been observed to cross the South Atlantic. They decay exponentially to less than half their initial size (measured by their available potential energy) within 1000 km from the shedding region. Consequently, most of their properties mix into the surroundings of the Benguela region, probably feeding directly into the upper (warm) limb of the global thermohaline circulation. The most recent observations suggest that in the present situation Agulhas water and Antarctic Intermediate Water are about equally important sources for the Benguela Current. Variations in the strength of these may lead to anomalous stratification and stability of the Atlantic at decadal and longer timescales. Modeling studies suggest that the Indian-Atlantic interocean exchange is strongly related to the structure of the wind field over the South Indian Ocean. This leads in the mean to a subtropical supergyre wrapping around the subtropical gyres of the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, local dynamical processes in the highly nonlinear regime around South Africa play a crucial role in inhibiting the connection between the two oceans. The regional bottom topography also seems to play an important role in locking the Agulhas Currents' retroflection. State-of-the-art global and regional “eddy-permitting” models show a reasonably realistic representation of the mean Agulhas system; but the mesoscale variability and the local geometrical and topographic features that determine largely the interocean fluxes still need considerable improvement. In this article we present a review of the above mentioned aspects of the interocean exchange around South Africa: the estimation of the fluxes into the South Atlantic from different types of observations, our present level of understanding of the exchanges dynamics and forcing, its representation in state-of-the-art models, and, finally, the impact of the Indian-Atlantic fluxes on regional and global scale both within the Atlantic Ocean and in interaction with the overlying atmosphere.