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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2018-03-15
    Beschreibung: The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO 2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.
    Digitale ISSN: 2375-2548
    Thema: Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Science Reviews 121 (2015): 89-97, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.020.
    Beschreibung: Warming over Mongolia and adjacent Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, to local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and the significance of major features of the past millennium such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) both of which can vary globally. Here we use an extensive collection of living and subfossil wood samples from temperature-sensitive trees to produce a millennial-length, validated reconstruction of summer temperatures for Mongolia and Central Asia from 931 to 2005 CE. This tree-ring reconstruction shows general agreement with the MCA (warming) and LIA (cooling) trends, a significant volcanic signature, and warming in the 20th and 21st Century. Recent warming (2000-2005) exceeds that from any other time and is concurrent with, and likely exacerbated, the impact of extreme drought (1999-2002) that resulted in massive livestock loss across Mongolia.
    Beschreibung: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants AGS-PRF #1137729, ATM0117442, and AGS0402474.
    Schlagwort(e): Mongolia ; Temperature ; Tree-ring ; Dendrochronology ; Reconstruction ; Global warming
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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