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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Climate ( 2021-08-27), p. 1-49
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, ( 2021-08-27), p. 1-49
    Abstract: Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 6 ( 2015-06-01), p. 921-938
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 6 ( 2015-06-01), p. 921-938
    Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography Vol. 35, No. 8 ( 2005-08-01), p. 1403-1420
    In: Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 35, No. 8 ( 2005-08-01), p. 1403-1420
    Abstract: The output from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) driven by observed surface forcing is used in conjunction with simpler dynamical models to examine the physical mechanisms responsible for interannual to interdecadal pycnocline variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 1958–97, a period that includes the 1976–77 climate shift. After 1977 the pycnocline deepened in a broad band along the coast and shoaled in the central part of the Gulf of Alaska. The changes in pycnocline depth diagnosed from the model are in agreement with the pycnocline depth changes observed at two ocean stations in different areas of the Gulf of Alaska. A simple Ekman pumping model with linear damping explains a large fraction of pycnocline variability in the OGCM. The fit of the simple model to the OGCM is maximized in the central part of the Gulf of Alaska, where the pycnocline variability produced by the simple model can account for ∼70%–90% of the pycnocline depth variance in the OGCM. Evidence of westward-propagating Rossby waves is found in the OGCM, but they are not the dominant signal. On the contrary, large-scale pycnocline depth anomalies have primarily a standing character, thus explaining the success of the local Ekman pumping model. The agreement between the Ekman pumping model and OGCM deteriorates in a large band along the coast, where propagating disturbances within the pycnocline, due to either mean flow advection or boundary waves, appear to play an important role in pycnocline variability. Coastal propagation of pycnocline depth anomalies is especially relevant in the western part of the Gulf of Alaska, where local Ekman pumping-induced changes are anticorrelated with the OGCM pycnocline depth variations. The pycnocline depth changes associated with the 1976–77 climate regime shift do not seem to be consistent with Sverdrup dynamics, raising questions about the nature of the adjustment of the Alaska Gyre to low-frequency wind stress variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0485 , 0022-3670
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042184-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 184162-2
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  • 4
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 374, No. 6563 ( 2021-10)
    Abstract: Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
    SSG: 11
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  • 5
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, No. 3 ( 2020-03), p. E253-E258
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 18, No. 18 ( 2005-09-15), p. 3739-3758
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, No. 18 ( 2005-09-15), p. 3739-3758
    Abstract: The output from an ocean general circulation model driven by observed surface forcing (1958–97) is used to examine the evolution and relative timing of the different branches of the Pacific Subtropical–Tropical Cells (STCs) at both interannual and decadal time scales, with emphasis on the 1976–77 climate shift. The STCs consist of equatorward pycnocline transports in the ocean interior and in the western boundary current, equatorial upwelling, and poleward flow in the surface Ekman layer. The interior pycnocline transports exhibit a decreasing trend after the mid-1970s, in agreement with observational transport estimates, and are largely anticorrelated with both the Ekman transports and the boundary current transports at the same latitudes. The boundary current changes tend to compensate for the interior changes at both interannual and decadal time scales. The meridional transport convergence across 9°S and 9°N as well as the equatorial upwelling are strongly correlated with the changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. However, meridional transport variations do not occur simultaneously at each longitude, so that to understand the phase relationship between transport and SST variations it is important to consider the baroclinic ocean adjustment through westward-propagating Rossby waves. The anticorrelation between boundary current changes and interior transport changes can also be understood in terms of the baroclinic adjustment process. In this simulation, the pycnocline transport variations appear to be primarily confined within the Tropics, with maxima around 10°S and 13°N, and related to the local wind forcing; a somewhat different perspective from previous studies that have emphasized the role of wind variations in the subtropics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 11 ( 2006-06-01), p. 2496-2525
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 11 ( 2006-06-01), p. 2496-2525
    Abstract: Extratropical atmosphere–ocean variability over the Northern Hemisphere of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is examined and compared to observations. Results are presented for an extended control integration with a horizontal resolution of T85 (1.4°) for the atmosphere and land and ∼1° for the ocean and sea ice. Several atmospheric phenomena are investigated including storms, clouds, and patterns of variability, and their relationship to both tropical and extratropical SST anomalies. The mean storm track, the leading modes of storm track variability, and the relationship of the latter to tropical and midlatitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are fairly well simulated in CCSM3. The positive correlations between extratropical SST and low-cloud anomalies in summer are reproduced by the model, but there are clear biases in the relationship between clouds and the near-surface meridional wind. The model accurately represents the circulation anomalies associated with the jet stream waveguide, the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, and fluctuations associated with the Aleutian low, including how the latter two features are influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). CCSM3 has a reasonable depiction of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), but it is not strongly connected to tropical Pacific SSTs as found in nature. There are biases in the position of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and other Atlantic regimes, as the mean Icelandic low in CCSM3 is stronger and displaced southeastward relative to observations. Extratropical ocean processes in CCSM3, including upper-ocean mixing, thermocline variability, and extratropical to tropical flow within the thermocline, also influence climate variability. As in observations, the model includes the “reemergence mechanism” where seasonal variability in mixed layer depth (MLD) allows SST anomalies to recur in consecutive winters without persisting through the intervening summer. Remote wind stress curl anomalies drive thermocline variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region, which influences SST, surface heat flux anomalies, and the local wind field. The interior ocean pathways connecting the subtropics to the equator in both the Pacific and Atlantic are less pronounced in CCSM3 than in nature or in ocean-only simulations forced by observed atmospheric conditions, and the flow from the subtropical North Atlantic does not appear to reach the equator through either the western boundary or interior pathways.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 11 ( 2010-06-01), p. 2941-2958
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 11 ( 2010-06-01), p. 2941-2958
    Abstract: Multicentury preindustrial control simulations from six of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are used to examine the relationship between low-frequency precipitation variations in the Great Plains (GP) region of the United States and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study builds on previous work performed with atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs during the twentieth century and extends it to a coupled model context and longer time series. The climate models used in this study reproduce the precipitation climatology over the United States reasonably well, with maximum precipitation occurring in early summer, as observed. The modeled precipitation time series exhibit negative “decadal” anomalies, identified using a 5-yr running mean, of amplitude comparable to that of the twentieth-century droughts. It is found that low-frequency anomalies over the GP are part of a large-scale pattern of precipitation variations, characterized by anomalies of the same sign as in the GP region over Europe and southern South America and anomalies of opposite sign over northern South America, India, and Australia. The large-scale pattern of the precipitation anomalies is associated with global-scale atmospheric circulation changes; during wet periods in the GP, geopotential heights are raised in the tropics and high latitudes and lowered in the midlatitudes in most models, with the midlatitude jets displaced toward the equator in both hemispheres. Statistically significant correlations are found between the decadal precipitation anomalies in the GP region and tropical Pacific SSTs in all the models. The influence of other oceans (Indian and tropical and North Atlantic), which previous studies have identified as potentially important, appears to be model dependent.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
    In: Atmosphere-Ocean, Informa UK Limited, Vol. 43, No. 3 ( 2005-09), p. 231-240
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0705-5900 , 1480-9214
    Language: English
    Publisher: Informa UK Limited
    Publication Date: 2005
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 443534-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025886-0
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 10
    In: Progress in Oceanography, Elsevier BV, Vol. 183 ( 2020-04), p. 102307-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0079-6611
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1497436-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 4062-9
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 14
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