Description: The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea

Description: Fisheries and marine ecosystem-based management requires a holistic understanding of the dynamics of fish communities and their responses to changes in environmental conditions. Environmental conditions can simultaneously shape the spatial distribution and the temporal dynamics of a population, which together can trigger changes in the functional structure of communities. Here, we developed a comprehensive framework based on complementary multivariate statistical methodologies to simultaneously investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the spatial, temporal and functional dynamics of species assemblages. The framework is tested using survey data collected during more than 4000 fisheries hauls over the Baltic Sea between 2001 and 2016. The approach revealed the Baltic fish community to be structured into three sub-assemblages along a strong and temporally stable salinity gradient decreasing from West to the East. Additionally, we highlight a mismatch between species and functional richness associated with a lower functional redundancy in the Baltic Proper compared with other sub-areas, suggesting an ecosystem more susceptible to external pressures. Based on a large dataset of community data analysed in an innovative and comprehensive way, we could disentangle the effects of environmental changes on the structure of biotic communities-key information for the management and conservation of ecosystems.

Description: Identification of essential fish habitats (EFH), such as spawning habitats, is important for nature conservation, sustainable fisheries management and marine spatial planning. Two sympatric flounder (Platichthys flesus) ecotypes are present in the Baltic Sea, pelagic and demersal spawning flounder, both displaying ecological and physiological adaptations to the low-salinity environment of this young inland sea. In this study we have addressed three main research questions: 1) What environmental conditions characterize the spatial distribution and abundance of adult flounder during the spawning season? 2) What are the main factors defining the habitats of the two flounder ecotypes during the spawning season? 3) Where are the potential spawning areas of flounder? We modelled catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of flounder from gillnet surveys conducted over the southern and central Baltic Sea in the spring of 2014 and 2015 using generalized additive models. A general model included all the stations fished during the survey while two other models, one for the demersal and one for the pelagic spawning flounder, included only the stations where each flounder ecotype should dominate. The general model captured distinct ecotype-specific signals as it identified dual salinity and water depth responses. The model for the demersal spawning flounder revealed a negative relation with the abundance of round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and a positive relation with Secchi depth and cod abundance. Vegetation and substrate did not play an important role in the choice of habitat for the demersal ecotype. The model for the pelagic spawning flounder showed a negative relation with temperature and bottom current and a positive relation with salinity. Spatial predictions of potential spawning areas of flounder showed a decrease in habitat availability for the pelagic spawning flounder over the last 20 years in the central part of the Baltic Sea, which may explain part of the observed changes in populations' biomass. We conclude that spatiotemporal modelling of habitat availability can improve our understanding of fish stock dynamics and may provide necessary biological knowledge for the development of marine spatial plans.

Description: Data from the space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) aboard the Envisat satellite and MODIS spectroradiometers on board the Terra/Aqua satellites, and the high resolution Sea Ice-Ocean Model of the Baltic Sea (BSIOM) have been used to investigate two upwelling events in the SE Baltic Sea. The combined analysis was applied to the upwelling events in July 2006 along the coasts of the Baltic States, and in June 2008 along the Polish coast and Hel Peninsula. Comparisons indicated good agreement between the sea surface temperatures and roughness signatures detected in satellite imagery and model results. It is shown that BSIOM can simulate upwelling events realistically. The utilization of modelled hydrodynamics and wind stress data together with SAR and SST information provides an extended analysis and deeper understanding of the upwelling processes in the Baltic Sea. During the active phase of upwelling when the wind is strong, the resulting coastal jet is controlled by vorticity dynamics related to depth variations in the direction of the flow. Typical upwelling patterns are related to the meandering coastal jet and thus associated with topographic features. The longshore transport of the coastal jet is of the order of 10(4) m s(-1), and the offshore transport at the surface is of the order of 10(3) m s(-1), which respectively correspond to the total and largest river runoff to the Baltic Sea.

Description: This paper is devoted to a study on the effects of different parameterisations of vertical turbulence – with a 3D hydrodynamic model COHERENS – on the accuracy of calculated temperature and salinity fields in a hydrodynamically complex test area – the Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland. Two algebraic parameterisations and k–ε and k-models were used. For k-model four different sets of stability functions were used. Calculated vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were compared against CTD-profiles collected during a measurement campaign in the Gulf of Finland in summer 1996. The dataset has an outstanding spatial and temporal coverage including over 300 measured CTD profiles. The thermocline depth was underestimated throughout summer by all the vertical turbulence schemes. The selection of stability functions had significant effect on the accuracy of the k-model. Generally k-model performed better when the limiting conditions for mixing length were not applied. The k-model with stability functions based on the Munk–Anderson relation without limiting condition for mixing length showed best accuracy in the calculated profiles of temperature and in the thermocline depth. The improvement of the meteorological forcing had an impact on the exactness of the calculated thermocline depth. However, sensitivity tests showed that this impact was relatively small. Generally, calculated salinity was overestimated in the surface layer and underestimated in the bottom layers. Algebraic parameterisations had highest accuracy in the vertical salinity profiles. In the eastern Gulf of Finland the calculated values of salinity were overestimated. The accuracy of initial conditions, river runoff and bathymetry had significant effect on the accuracy of calculated salinity fields. Highlights: We studied the performance of the vertical turbulence parameterisations in the modeling of hydrodynamics in the Baltic Sea. ► We compared the calculated temperature and salinity fields against dataset having outstanding temporal and spatial coverage. ► The vertical turbulence parameterisations showed considerable differences in the accuracy of the calculated temperature. ► The mixed layer depth was underestimated by all vertical turbulence schemes used in this study. ► Selection of stability functions had significant effect on the accuracy of the turbulence closure schemes.

Description: The Boknis Eck (BE) time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM). Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

Description: We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere–land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003–2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: • Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. • In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. • Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. • The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. • The importance of surface waves in air–sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. • We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. • The Baltic Sea’s various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. • There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. • Modelling of the Baltic Sea–North Sea system, including the development of coupled land–sea–atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water–sediment interactions are needed. There is also a need for new climate projections and simulations with improved atmospheric and oceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context.

Description: The Baltic Sea Science Congress was held at Rostock University, Germany, from 19 to 22 March 2007. In the session entitled"Upwelling events, coastal offshore exchange, links to biogeochemical processes" 20 presentations were given,including 7 talks and 13 posters related to the theme of the session.This paper summarises new findings of the upwelling-related studies reported in the session. It deals with investigationsbased on the use of in situ and remote sensing measurements as well as numerical modelling tools. The biogeochemicalimplications of upwelling are also discussed.Our knowledge of the fine structure and dynamic considerations of upwelling has increased in recent decades with the advent ofhigh-resolution modern measurement techniques and modelling studies. The forcing and the overall structure, duration and intensity ofupwelling events are understood quite well. However, the quantification of related transports and the contribution to the overall mixingof upwelling requires further research. Furthermore, our knowledge of the links between upwelling and biogeochemical processes is stillincomplete. Numerical modelling has advanced to the extent that horizontal resolutions of c. 0.5 nautical miles can now be applied,which allows the complete spectrum of meso-scale features to be described. Even the development of filaments can be describedrealistically in comparison with high-resolution satellite data.But the effect of upwelling at a basin scale and possible changes under changing climatic conditions remain open questions.

Description: Throughout the last decades there has been a world-wide, general warming trend. In this study, we use the example of the Baltic Sea to resolve the overall estimated temperature trend into smaller, meso-scale spatial units. Afterwards, we investigate the spatially resolved potential impact of the temperature trend on larval survival for two important fish species, cod and sprat. We used two different sets of hydrographic data: (i) long-term temporally and depth-resolved data measured in situ originating from one geographic position and (ii) long-term horizontally resolved data, originating from a circulation model. In contrast to basin-wide integrated results, our modelling approach revealed different results related to smaller spatial scales. In shallow and coastal areas non-significant long-term temperature trends were observed. In some cases even decreasing temperature trends were found. Average distribution maps (1973–2010) of cod and sprat eggs and larvae confirmed the higher importance of central, deep basins as nursery grounds. Applying the temperature trends when calculating cod larval window of opportunity values, resulted in decreased durations of 1–3 days (~ 3–13%) in most areas. Sprat larval window of opportunity values mainly increased up to 4 days (~ 45%), indicating a potential reproduction advantage of sprat over cod under anticipated future temperature increase. Highlights ► We resolve the overall positive temperature trend in the Baltic into meso-scale spatial units and investigate the impact on larval survival for two important fish species, cod and sprat. ► In shallow and coastal areas non-significant or even negative temperature trends occurred. ► Cod larval window of opportunity values decreased by 1–3 days (~ 3–13%). ► Sprat larval window of opportunity values increased up to 4 days (~ 45%). ► Sprat will have a reproduction advantage over cod under anticipated future temperature change.

Description: A statistical analysis of Baltic Sea upwelling has been carried out to cover, for the first time, the entire sea area for the period 1990-2009. Weekly composite SST maps based on NOAA/AVHRR satellite data were used to evaluate the location and frequency of upwelling. The results obtained were analysed and compared with earlier studies with excellent agreement. Our study enables the most intense upwelling areas in the entire Baltic Sea to be evaluated. According to the analysis of 443 SST maps, the most common upwelling regions are found off the Swedish south and east coasts (frequency 10-25%), the Swedish coast of the Bothnian Bay (16%), the southern tip of Gotland (up to 15%), and the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland (up to 15%). Pronounced upwelling also occurs off the Estonian coast and the Baltic east coast (up to 15%), the Polish coast and the west coast of Rügen (10-15%); otherwise the upwelling frequency was between 5 and 10%. Additionally, simulated SST distributions derived from a Baltic Sea numerical model were analysed for the same period. Furthermore, at specific positions close to the coastline, surface winds based on the SMHI meteorological data base were analysed for the same 20-year period. Wind components parallel to the coast were discriminated into favourable and unfavourable winds forcing upwelling. The obtained frequencies of upwelling-favourable winds fit very well the observed upwelling frequencies derived from satellite SST maps. A positive trend of upwelling frequencies along the Swedish east coast and the Finnish coast of the Gulf of Finland was calculated for the period 1990-2009.