Beschreibung: Fisheries and marine ecosystem-based management requires a holistic understanding of the dynamics of fish communities and their responses to changes in environmental conditions. Environmental conditions can simultaneously shape the spatial distribution and the temporal dynamics of a population, which together can trigger changes in the functional structure of communities. Here, we developed a comprehensive framework based on complementary multivariate statistical methodologies to simultaneously investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the spatial, temporal and functional dynamics of species assemblages. The framework is tested using survey data collected during more than 4000 fisheries hauls over the Baltic Sea between 2001 and 2016. The approach revealed the Baltic fish community to be structured into three sub-assemblages along a strong and temporally stable salinity gradient decreasing from West to the East. Additionally, we highlight a mismatch between species and functional richness associated with a lower functional redundancy in the Baltic Proper compared with other sub-areas, suggesting an ecosystem more susceptible to external pressures. Based on a large dataset of community data analysed in an innovative and comprehensive way, we could disentangle the effects of environmental changes on the structure of biotic communities-key information for the management and conservation of ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Identification of essential fish habitats (EFH), such as spawning habitats, is important for nature conservation, sustainable fisheries management and marine spatial planning. Two sympatric flounder (Platichthys flesus) ecotypes are present in the Baltic Sea, pelagic and demersal spawning flounder, both displaying ecological and physiological adaptations to the low-salinity environment of this young inland sea. In this study we have addressed three main research questions: 1) What environmental conditions characterize the spatial distribution and abundance of adult flounder during the spawning season? 2) What are the main factors defining the habitats of the two flounder ecotypes during the spawning season? 3) Where are the potential spawning areas of flounder? We modelled catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of flounder from gillnet surveys conducted over the southern and central Baltic Sea in the spring of 2014 and 2015 using generalized additive models. A general model included all the stations fished during the survey while two other models, one for the demersal and one for the pelagic spawning flounder, included only the stations where each flounder ecotype should dominate. The general model captured distinct ecotype-specific signals as it identified dual salinity and water depth responses. The model for the demersal spawning flounder revealed a negative relation with the abundance of round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and a positive relation with Secchi depth and cod abundance. Vegetation and substrate did not play an important role in the choice of habitat for the demersal ecotype. The model for the pelagic spawning flounder showed a negative relation with temperature and bottom current and a positive relation with salinity. Spatial predictions of potential spawning areas of flounder showed a decrease in habitat availability for the pelagic spawning flounder over the last 20 years in the central part of the Baltic Sea, which may explain part of the observed changes in populations' biomass. We conclude that spatiotemporal modelling of habitat availability can improve our understanding of fish stock dynamics and may provide necessary biological knowledge for the development of marine spatial plans.

Beschreibung: Salinity and stratification in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea are linked to the occurrence of Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) of higher saline water of North Sea origin, which occur sporadically and transport higher saline and oxygenated water to deeper layers. Since the mid-1970s, the frequency and intensity of MBIs have decreased. They were completely absent between February 1983 and January 1993. However, in spite of the decreasing frequency of MBIs, there was no obvious decrease of larger Baltic Sea volume changes (LVCs). A LVC is defined by a total volume change of at least 100 km3. LVCs can be identified from the sea level changes at Landsort which is known to represent the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea very well. Strong inflows leading to LVCs are associated to a special sequence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Our analysis based on Jenkinson-Collison circulation (JCC) types confirms that most effective inflows occur if about a month before the main inflow period, eastern air flow with anticyclonic vorticity over the western Baltic prevails. These conditions reduce the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea and lead to an increased saline stratification in the Belt Sea area. An immediate period of strong to very strong westerly winds trigger the inflow and force LVCs/MBIs. The lack of MBIs coincide with a negative trend of eastern types and a parallel increase of western type JCCs

Beschreibung: Highlights: • Frequencies and pathways of deep cyclones forcing large volume changes (LVCs) and major Baltic inflows (MBIs) have been determined and analyzed. • Deep cyclones associated with LVCs and MBIs follow 4 main routes over the Baltic Sea area. • For the period 1950–2010, there is a positive trend of the number of deep cyclones associated with LVCs. Abstract: Large volume changes (LVCs) and major Baltic inflows (MBIs) are essential processes for the water exchange and renewal of the stagnant water in the Baltic Sea deep basins. These strong inflows are known to be forced by persistent westerly wind conditions. In this study, MBIs are considered as subset of LVCs transporting with the large water volume a big amount of highly saline and oxygenated water into the Baltic Sea. Since the early 1980s the frequency of MBIs has dropped drastically from 5 to 7 events to only one inflow per decade, and long lasting periods without MBIs became the usual state. Only in January 1993, 2003 and December 2014 MBIs occurred that were able to interrupt the stagnation periods in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. However, in spite of the decreasing frequency of MBIs, there is no obvious decrease of LVCs. The Landsort sea level is known to reflect the mean sea level of the Baltic Sea very well, and hence LVCs have been calculated for the period 1887–2015 filtering daily time series of Landsort sea surface elevation anomalies. The cases with local minimum and maximum difference resulting in at least 60 km3 of water volume change excluding the volume change due to runoff have been chosen for a closer study (1948–2013) of characteristic pathways of deep cyclones. The average duration of LVCs is about 40 days. During this time, 5–6 deep cyclones move along characteristic storm tracks. Furthermore, MBIs are characterized by even higher cyclonic activity compared to average LVCs. We obtained four main routes of deep cyclones which were associated with LVCs, but also with the climatology. One is approaching from the west at about 56–60°N, passing the northern North Sea, northern Denmark, Sweden and the Island of Gotland. A second broad corridor of frequent cyclone pathways enters the study area north of Scotland between 60 and 66°N turning north-eastwards along the northern coast of Scandinavia. This branch bifurcates into smaller routes. One at about 62°N passing Oslo, southern Sweden and entering the central Baltic Sea, and another less frequent one at about 65°N, crossing Scandinavia south-eastwards passing the Sea of Bothnia and entering Finland. The conditions for LVCs to happen are temporal clustering of deep cyclones in certain trajectory corridors. We also found an increasing linear trend of the number of deep cyclones for the period 1950–2010.

Beschreibung: This chapter describes recent change in the circulation and stratification of the Baltic Sea. A recent warming trend in sea-surface waters has been clearly demonstrated by in situ measurements, remote sensing data and numerical models. Trends in sea-surface temperature (SST) for the past three to four decades based on remote sensing data generally agree with trends determined from in situ observations. Models suggest the current warming within the Baltic Sea lies within the range experienced during the past 500 years. The salinity and stratification of the deep waters are strongly linked to the major inflows of North Sea water that occur sporadically and bring high-saline water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. The major inflows normally occur during winter and spring and bring cold oxygen-rich waters into the deep basins. Since 1996, large inflows have also occurred during summer, bringing in warm low-oxygen water.

Beschreibung: Aim: The interdependencies between trophic interactions, environmental factors and anthropogenic forcing determine how species distributions change over time. Large changes in species distributions have occurred as a result of climate change. The objective of this study was to analyse how the spatial distribution of cod and flounder has changed in the Baltic Sea during the past four decades characterized by large hydrological changes. Location: Baltic Sea. Taxon: Cod (Gadus morhua) and flounder (Platichthys flesus). Methods: Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) data for adult and juvenile cod and for adult flounder were modelled using Delta-Generalized additive models including environmental and geographical variables between 1979 and 2016. From the annual CPUE predictions for each species, yearly distribution maps and depth distribution curves were obtained. Mean depth and the depth range were estimated to provide an indication on preferred depth and habitat occupancy. Results: Adult and juvenile cod showed a contraction in their distribution in the southern areas of the Baltic Sea. Flounder, instead, showed an expansion in its distribution with an increase in abundance in the northern areas. The depth distributions showed a progressive shift of the mean depth of occurrence towards shallower waters for adult cod and flounder and towards deeper waters for juvenile cod, as well as a contraction of the species depth ranges, evident mainly from the late 1980s. Main conclusions: Our study illustrates large changes in the spatial distribution of cod and flounder in the Baltic Sea. The changes in depth distribution occurred from the late 1980s are probably due to a combination of expanded areas of hypoxia in deep waters and an increase in predation risk in shallow waters. The net effect of these changes is an increased spatial overlap between life stages and species, which may amplify cod cannibalism and the interaction strength between cod and flounder

Beschreibung: Highlights • Records of hard-bottom communities show regional differences in community dynamics. • Regionally, signs of regime shift were detected. • Shift can be explained by the decline of the foundation species Mytilus sp. • Modelling process revealed three environmental variables explaining the decline. • Regional differences in larval dispersal could explain contrary Mytilus recoveries. Abstract Ecological processes modulate ecosystem functioning and services. Foundation species are those exerting intense control on such processes as both their existence and loss have profound implications on the structure of ecological communities. For the distinction between random fluctuations and directional regime shifts in community composition, long-term records are of strategic need. In this study we present the monitoring of benthic hard-bottom communities over 11 years along seven stations in the SW Baltic Sea. Regional differences were found between the communities of Kiel and Lübeck bights, with the former area displaying signs of regime shift. The decline and near disappearance of the foundational species Mytilus edulis from settlement panels deployed in Kiel Bight correlated with three environmental variables: sea surface temperature, water current speed and chlorophyll a concentration. Thus, low spring temperatures, in some cases reinforced by local maxima of chlorophyll a, correlated with reduced recruitment of Mytilus. Moreover, regional differences of larval dispersal and population connectivity could explain the rapid recovery after disturbance of the mussel populations in Lübeck Bight in contrast to Kiel Bight. Our findings underscore the relevance of long-term monitoring programmes to detect the interactive impacts of global climatic and regional environmental drivers.

Beschreibung: Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Beschreibung: This study applied the Systems Approach Framework (SAF) to address the issue of declining Atlantic cod fishery in coastal areas. Interviews of 58 fishers from 26 harbours and meetings with national fisheries organisations and managers revealed the perception of an offshore movement of coastal cod. Numerical modelling based on fishing survey data did not substantiate these perceptions in the data-poor coastal waters. However, Data Storage Tag (DST) information combined with bottom sea water temperature data from the spatio-temporal hydrodynamic Baltic Sea Ice-Ocean Model showed changes in potential cod habitat distribution in the Skagerrak-Kattegat and western Baltic from 1979 to 2016. Subsequently, cod habitats were defined in three categories: (i) potentially suitable (T 〈= 12 degrees C); (ii) episodic (12 〈 T 〈= 16 degrees C); and (iii) unsuitable (T 〉 16 degrees C). The environmental changes were linked to the socio-economic component of cod fishery. Cod catches (weight and monetary value) were retrieved using logbook information and data from the Vessel Monitoring System (VMS, 2005-2016) and the Automatic Identification System (AIS, 2006-2016). General additive modelling significantly showed the largest proportion of catches took place in the potentially suitable habitat whereas catches were lower in the episodic habitat and rare in the unsuitable habitat. The results of this first large-scale SAF application are highly valuable for adapting existing fisheries management by: (i) providing information on habitat shrinkage for Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) based stock assessments; (ii) adding a spatio-temporal dimension for coastal productivity relative to the vessel-based Individual Transferable Quota (ITQ) system; and (iii) providing a predictive scenario simulation tool for sustainable management under changing environmental conditions.