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  • DeepMIP  (1)
  • equilibrium climate sensitivity  (1)
  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-06
    Beschreibung: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the early Eocene climatic optimum, a geological time period with high CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations, analog to the upper range of end‐of‐century CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations, at a range of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 levels are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and non‐CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, while oceanic poleward heat transport decreases. The non‐CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 boundary conditions cause more MHT toward the South Pole, mainly through an increase in the southward oceanic heat transport. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the northern mid‐latitudes in the Eocene. The Eocene Hadley cells do not transport more heat poleward, but due to the warmer atmosphere, especially the northern cell, circulate more heat in the tropics, than today. The monsoon systems' poleward latent heat transport increases with rising CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations, but this change is counterweighted by the globally smaller Eocene monsoon area. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems' latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.〈/p〉
    Beschreibung: Plain Language Summary: In the Earth's climate system both the atmosphere and the ocean are transporting heat through different processes from the tropics toward the poles. We investigate the transport of the atmosphere in several climate model set ups, which aim to simulate the very warm climate of the early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago). This period is relevant, because the atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration was close to our pessimistic projection of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration for the end of the century. In our study we separate the results into transport changes due to the different set up of the Eocene, and transport changes due to larger CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration values. We found that with rising CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 values the atmosphere transports more heat from the tropics to the poles. The different location of the continents and seas is influencing the heat transport of the midlatitude cyclones. The Eocene tropical meridional overturning circulation's poleward heat transport does not increase, but it circulates more heat than today. The monsoon systems seem to be affecting a globally smaller area in the Eocene, but they are also more effective in transporting heat. This conclusion is in line with the observation, that current day monsoon systems' precipitation increases, as our CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration rises.〈/p〉
    Beschreibung: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The latent heat transport of the monsoon increases through the Eocene higher CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration, but it is reduced by the Eocene topography〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The poleward heat transport of midlatitude cyclones is higher in the Northern Hemisphere in the Eocene, due to the different topography〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The Eocene northern Hadley cell circulates more heat, than in the present, while its net poleward heat transport is even less than today〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Beschreibung: Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003495
    Beschreibung: National Science Fundation
    Beschreibung: Swedish Research Council
    Beschreibung: NERC SWEET
    Beschreibung: Kakenhi
    Beschreibung: National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Beschreibung: Australian Research Council
    Beschreibung: https://www.deepmip.org/data-eocene/
    Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573
    Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7
    Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7958397
    Beschreibung: 551.6
    Schlagwort(e): meridional heat transport ; early Eocene climatic optimum ; paleoclimate ; monsoon ; CO2 effect ; DeepMIP
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: doc-type:article
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-10-12
    Beschreibung: The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.
    Schlagwort(e): 551.6 ; equilibrium climate sensitivity ; climate models
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: map
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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