Note: Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Series Editor's introduction -- Ministers' page: Towards forecasting a changing ocean: An African Perspective -- Sponsorship page -- Foreword -- List of contributors -- PART I: BY WAY OF INTRODUCTION -- Chapter 1. A plan comes together -- UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT -- TEN YEARS OF CLOSE REGIONAL COLLABORATION -- OBSERVING AND PREDICTING IN THE BCLME WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT -- FAST-TRACKING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL OBSERVING SYSTEM AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY -- ABOUT THIS BOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 2. Forecasting within the context of Large Marine Ecosystem Programs -- LME DEFINITION: DELINEATION AND MAJOR STRESSORS -- LME INDICATOR MODULES -- APPLICATION OF INDICATOR MODULES TO LME MANAGEMENT SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY (GEF) -- SCIENCE-BASED ASSESSMENTS OF LME BIOMASS YIELDS -- RECOVERING FISHERIES BIOMASS -- LME MODELING AND DRIVING FORCES OF CHANGE -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 3. The Global Ocean Observing System for Africa (GOOS Africa): Monitoring and Predicting in Large Marine Ecosystems -- INTRODUCTION -- THE LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM (LME) CONCEPT AND STRATEGY -- THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM IN AFRICA (GOOS-AFRICA) -- GOOS-AFRICA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS -- THE AFRICAN LMES ARE CORE AND VITAL STRATEGIC PARTNERS FOR GOOS-AFRICA -- GOOS-AFRICA CONTRIBUTION TO INTEGRATED MONITORING AND PREDICTING OF LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUDING REMARKS: SUCCESS STORIES -- GOOS-AFRICA FORWARD LOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- PART II: SETTING THE SCENE -- Chapter 4. Large scale physical variability of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) -- INTRODUCTION -- MAJOR PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN THE BCLME -- ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OF THE BCLME -- LARGE SCALE MODES OF VARIABILITY -- WATER MASSES AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE BCLME. , NUMERICAL OCEAN MODELLING IN THE BCLME -- SCHEMATIC CIRCULATION DEDUCED FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL -- NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN THE BCLME -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 5. Low oxygen water (LOW) variability in the Benguela system: Key processes and forcing scales relevant to forecasting -- INTRODUCTION -- SYNTHESIS OF SYSTEM PROCESSES AND VARIABILITY -- REMOTE FORCING: EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC (ETSA - BENGUELA LINKAGE) -- BENGUELA SHELF VARIABILITY -- PROCESSES REQUIRING DIAGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT -- PROCESSES WITH FORECASTING POTENTIAL -- WHAT ARE THE GAPS? -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 7. The variability and potential for prediction of harmful algal blooms in the southern Benguela ecosystem -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- THE SPATIAL [GEOGRAPHIC] DISTRIBUTION OF HABS -- SEASONAL INCIDENCE OF HABS -- THE TIMING OF HABS: ACROSS-SHELF AND ALONGSHORE TRANSPORT -- CONCLUSION: THE POTENTIAL FOR PREDICTION -- Chapter 8. Resource and ecosystem variability, including regime shifts, in the Benguela Current system -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- RESOURCE VARIABILITY -- ECOSYSTEM VARIABILITY -- PREDICTING VARIABILITY -- MAKING PREDICTIONS -- A WAY FORWARD -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 6. Variability of plankton with reference to fish variability in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem - An overview -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- EVENT-SCALE VARIABILITY -- SEASONAL CHANGES -- INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL CHANGES -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 9. Modelling, forecasting and scenarios in comparable upwelling ecosystems --California, Canary, Humboldt -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICS -- ECOLOGY -- TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER GENERAL THOUGHTS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART III: HOPES, DREAMS AND REALITY. , Chapter 10. Influences of large scale climate modes and Agulhas system variability on the BCLME region -- INTRODUCTION -- ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY OF THE BCLME REGION -- BENGUELA NIÑOS AND SST VARIABILITY IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN -- INFLUENCE OF VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN AGULHAS SYSTEM ON THE BCLME REGION -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 11. Developing a basis for detecting and predicting long-term ecosystem changes -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- ECOSYSTEM CHANGES TO BE MONITORED -- APPROPRIATE ECOSYSTEM INDICATORS AND MODELS -- DESIRED END PRODUCTS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS -- SCHEDULE FOR IMPLEMENTATION -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 12. The requirements for forecasting harmful algal blooms in the Benguela -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICAL-BIOLOGICAL COUPLINGS UNDERLYING HABS -- IDENTIFICATION OF THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IMPORTANT TO BLOOM CONCENTRATION AND TRANSPORT -- REAL-TIME OBSERVATION OF HABS -- NUMERICAL MODELLING AND PREDICTION OF HAB DYNAMICS -- CONCLUSIONS -- Chapter 13. Low oxygen water (LOW) forcing scales amenable to forecasting in the Benguela ecosystem -- INTRODUCTION -- SCALES OF LOW VARIABILITY AMENABLE TO FORECASTING -- REMOTE EQUATORIAL FORCING: 2 MONTH FORECASTING SCALE -- SHELF SCALE FORCING: 7 DAY FORECASTING SCALE -- IMPORTANCE OF COUPLED MECHANISMS -- OBSERVATIONAL PROGRAMME -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 14. Forecasting shelf processes of relevance to living marine resources in the BCLME -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- LOW OXYGEN WATER EVENTS -- MESOSCALE PROCESSES -- BOUNDARY PROCESSES -- OTHER SHELF PROCESSES -- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 15. Environmental data requirements of maritime operations in the Benguela coastal ocean -- INTRODUCTION -- OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION NEEDS -- DIAMOND MINING -- SHIPPING -- PORTS. , FISHING -- SOVEREIGNTY AND RESOURCE PROTECTION -- MARITIME FORECASTING IN SUPPORT OF RISK MANAGEMENT -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- PART IV: THE WAY AHEAD -- Chapter 16. Towards a future integrated forecast system -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- CANDIDATE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES FOR THE BCLME -- SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS FOR THE CANDIDATE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- Chapter 17. Forecasting a large marine ecosystem -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- MODELLING PRACTICE IN THE 21ST CENTURY -- SHORT-TERM LME FORECASTING -- MEDIUM-TERM LME FORECASTING -- LONG-TERM LME FORECASTING -- WHAT-IF? PREDICTION -- A VISION OF THE FUTURE -- Index -- Large Marine Ecosystems Series.

Note: Front Cover -- Philosophy of Ecology -- Copyright Page -- General Preface -- Preface -- Contributors -- Contents -- Introduction -- Philosophy of Ecology Today -- Introduction -- Part 1: Philosophical Issues in the History and Science of Ecology -- Part 2: Philosophical Issues in Applied Ecology and Conservation Science -- Part 1: Philosophical Issues in the History and Science of Ecology -- Origins and Development of Ecology -- Introduction -- 1 What were the Novel Abductions or Hypotheses that Set Ecology Apart? -- 2 What were the Origins or Inspirations of these Defining Hypotheses? -- 3 How much have these Initial Hypotheses Affected the Subsequent Development of Ecology? -- 4 Who exactly Constituted the Community of Pioneer Ecologists? -- 5 How much Convergence Towards a Consistent set of Hypotheses has Occurred? -- 6 Summary and Conclusions -- Bibliography -- The Legend of Order and Chaos: Communities and Early Community Ecology -- 1 Clements, Gleason, and Preservability -- 2 The Prospect of Scientific Ecology -- 3 Order and Chaos -- 4 Clements's and Gleason's Ontologies -- 5 Polarizing Narratives -- 6 Multiple Communities -- 7 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- Philosophical Themes in the Work of Robert H. Macarthur -- 1 Introduction -- 2 A Biographical Sketch and Sketch of Macarthur's Research Program -- 3 A Tale of Two Models -- 4 Did Macarthur Unify Population Biology? -- 5 Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Embodied Realism and Invasive Species -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Image Schemata of Invasion Biology -- 3 Discussion -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- A Case Study in Concept Determination: Ecological Diversity -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Adequacy Criteria for the Concept of Ecological Diversity -- 3 Simpson's Index -- 4 Shannon's Index -- 5 The Role of the Diversity Concept within Ecology -- Acknowledgements. , Bibliography -- The Biodiversity-ecosystem Function Debate in Ecology -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Background: The Diversity-Stability Debate -- 3 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functions: Key Concepts -- 4 The Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function Debate -- 5 Conclusion -- Bibliography -- A Dynamical Approach to Ecosystem Identity -- Introduction -- 1 The Practical Significance of Ecosystem Individuation -- 2 Identity and Individuation of Dynamical Systems -- 3 Ecosystem Individuation and Change -- 4 Ecosystem Meta-Models -- 5 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- Symbiosis in Ecology and Evolution -- 1 Symbiosis-The Neglected Link Between Ecology and Evolution -- 2 History of the Concept -- 3 What, Precisely, Is Symbiosis? -- 4 Symbiosis and Evolution -- 5 Symbiosis and Cancer -- 6 Symbiosis and Human Ecology -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- Ecology as Historical Science -- 1 History in Science and Historical Sciences -- 2 Status and Authority among the Sciences -- 3 Aims of Explanation -- 4 The Role of Prediction -- 5 A Case in Point -- 6 Reduction and Supervenience -- 7 Models and Evidence -- 8 The Standing of Ecological Models -- 9 Epistemic Remarks -- 10 Conclusion: Ecology as a Historical Science -- Bibliography -- Part 2: Philosophical Issues in Applied Ecology and Conservation Science -- Environmental Ethics and Decision Theory: Fellow Travellers or Bitter Enemies? -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Case for Triage and Carbon Trading -- 3 Some Arguments Against Triage and Carbon Trading -- 4 A Decision-Theoretic Case Against Triage and Carbon Trading -- 5 Concluding Remarks -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- Postmodern Ecological Restoration: Choosing Appropriate Temporal and Spatial Scales -- Introduction: Classic Ecological Restoration -- The Wilderness Myth and the Equilibrium-Ecology Myth. , The Myth of Clementsian Equilibrium Ecology Debunked -- The Colonial Wilderness Myth Debunked -- Pleistocene Parks? -- A Question of Scale -- Temporal Scale and the Problem of Selecting a Reference System for Ecological Restoration -- The Classic Norms of Ecological Restoration Scientifically Justified -- A Scalar Distinction Between Pre- and Post-Industrial Human Disturbance -- Is Ecological Restoration Hubristic? -- Summary and Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Habitat Reconstruction: Moving Beyond Historical Fidelity -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Balcones Canyonlands -- 3 Defining Ecological Restoration -- 4 Doubts About Integrity -- 5 Problems with Fidelity -- 6 Natural Values -- 7 The Reconstructionist Agenda -- 8 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- Modeling Sustainability in Economics and Ecology -- 1 Introduction: The Challenge -- 2 Accounting and Reversibility and Substitutability: Still Controversial -- 3 Scale Determination: The Greater Challenge Today -- 4 Reforming or Replacing Economics: What is Needed? -- 5 Reflexive Philosophy of Science: Models, Metaphors, and the Discernment of Social Values -- 6 Conclusion: Prospects for a Truly Ecological Approach to Sustainability -- Bibliography -- Diversity and the Good -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Species Richness and Biological Productivity -- 3 Economic Inequality and Biodiversity Loss -- 4 The Intrinsic Value of Diversity and Equality -- 5 Other Potential Applications -- 6 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- Bibliography -- Index.