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  • 1
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    Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea (2019)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-25
    Description: Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976–2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing green- house gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals e change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather to the individual model biases.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
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    Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport (2019)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-15
    Description: Arctic sea-ice area and volume have substantially decreased since the beginning of the satellite era. Concurrently, the pole-ward heat transport from the North Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic has increased, partly contributing to the loss of sea ice. Increasing the horizontal resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) improves their ability to represent the complex interplay of processes at high latitudes. Here, we investigate the impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and Atlantic Ocean heat transport (OHT) by using five different state-of-the-art coupled GCMs (12 model configurations in total) that include dynamic representations of the ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. The models participate in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Model results over the period 1950–2014 are compared to different observational datasets. In the models studied, a finer ocean resolution drives lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume and generally enhances Atlantic OHT. The representation of ocean surface characteristics, such as sea-surface temperature (SST) and velocity, is greatly improved by using a finer ocean reso-lution. This study highlights a clear anticorrelation at interannual time scales between Arctic sea ice (area and volume) and Atlantic OHT north of 60 ◦N in the models studied. However, the strength of this relationship is not systematically impacted by model resolution. The higher the latitude to compute OHT, the stronger the relationship between sea-ice area/volume and OHT. Sea ice in the Barents/Kara and Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas is more strongly connected to Atlantic OHT than other Arctic seas.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    Impacts of strong wind events on sea ice and water mass properties in Antarctic coastal polynyas (2021)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Strong offshore wind events (SOWEs) occur frequently near the Antarctic coast during austral winter. These wind events are typically associated with passage of synoptic- or meso-scale cyclones, which interact with the katabatic wind field and affect sea ice and oceanic processes in coastal polynyas. Based on numerical simulations from the coupled Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) driven by the CORE-II forcing, two coastal polynyas along the East Antarctica coast––the Prydz Bay Polynya and the Shackleton Polynya are selected to examine the response of sea ice and oceanic properties to SOWEs. In these polynyas, the southern or western flanks of cyclones play a crucial role in increasing the offshore winds depending on the local topography. Case studies for both polynyas show that during SOWEs, when the wind speed is 2–3 times higher than normal values, the offshore component of sea ice velocity can increase by 3–4 times. Sea ice concentration can decrease by 20–40%, and sea ice production can increase up to two to four folds. SOWEs increase surface salinity variability and mixed layer depth, and such effects may persist for 5–10 days. Formation of high salinity shelf water (HSSW) is detected in the coastal regions from surface to 800 m after 10–15 days of the SOWEs, while the HSSW features in deep layers exhibit weak response on the synoptic time scale. HSSW formation averaged over winter is notably greater in years with longer duration of SOWEs.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (2021)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-25
    Description: In this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    The present and future offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region (2021)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, 56(5-6), pp. 1371-1388, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-25
    Description: In the last decades, offshore wind harvesting has increased enormously, and is seen as a renewable energy resource with great potential in many regions of the world. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how this resource will evolve in a warming climate. In the present study, offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region is analysed for the present and future climates. A ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM) climate simulation in uncoupled and coupled atmosphere–ocean mode, at 25 km horizontal resolution, and a multi-model ensemble built with a set of regional climate models from the CORDEX-Africa experiment at 0.44° resolution were used. The projected changes of the offshore wind energy density throughout the twenty-first century are examined following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Characterised by strong coastal-parallel winds, the Southwestern African offshore region shows high values of wind energy density at 100 m, up to 1500 Wm⁻² near the coast, particularly offshore Namibia and west South Africa. Conversely, along Angola’s coast the available offshore wind energy density is lower. Throughout the twenty-first century, for the weaker climate mitigation scenario (RCP8.5), an increase of the offshore wind resource is projected to occur along Namibia and South African western coasts, more pronounced at the end of the century (+ 24%), while a decrease is projected along Angola’s coasts, reaching a negative anomaly of about − 32%. Smaller changes but with the same pattern are projected for the stronger climate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). The future deployment of offshore floating hub turbines placed at higher heights may allow higher production of energy in this region. Along offshore Namibia and west South Africa, the wind energy density at 250 m showed differences that range between 30 and 50% relative to wind energy density at 100 m.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    On the impact of atmospheric vs oceanic resolutions on the representation of the sea surface temperature in the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic (2020)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, 54(11-12), pp. 4733-4757, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-15
    Description: Despite the efforts of the modelling community to improve the representation of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic, warm biases still persist. In this work we use four different configurations of the fully-coupled AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM) which allow us to gain physics-based insight into the role of the oceanic and atmospheric resolutions of the model in the regional distribution of the SST. Our results show that a sole refinement of the oceanic resolution reduces warm biases further than a single increase of the atmospheric component. An increased oceanic resolution is required (i) to simulate properly the Agulhas Current and its associated rings; (ii) to reinforce the northward-flowing Benguela Current and (iii) to intensify coastal upwelling. The best results are obtained when both resolutions are refined. However, even in that case, warm biases persist, reflecting that some processes and feedbacks are still not optimally resolved. Our results indicate that overheating is not due to insufficient upwelling, but rather due to upwelling of waters which are warmer than observations as a result of an erroneous representation of the vertical distribution of temperature. Errors in the representation of the vertical temperature profile are the consequence of a warm bias in the simulated climate state.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    Impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on regional climate: the Iberian Peninsula case (2020)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, 54(9-10), pp. 4441-4467, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-15
    Description: Regional models used for downscaling the European climate usually include a relatively small area of the Atlantic Ocean and are uncoupled, with the SST used as lower boundary conditions much coarser than the mesh of the regional atmospheric model. Concerns thus arise about the proper representation of the oceanic influence and the role of air-sea coupling in such experiments. A complex orography and the exposure to different air and ocean masses make the Iberian Peninsula (IP) an ideal test case for exploring the impact of including explicitly the North Atlantic in the regional domain and the added value that coupling brings to regional climate modeling. To this end, the regionally-coupled model ROM and its atmospheric component, the regional atmospheric model REMO are used in a set of coupled and uncoupled experiments forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and by the global climate model MPI-ESM. The atmospheric domain is the same in all simulations and includes the North Atlantic and the ocean component is global and eddy permitting. Results show that the impact of air-sea coupling on the IP winter biases can be traced back to the features of the simulated North Atlantic Ocean circulation. In summer, it is the air-sea interactions in the Mediterranean that exert the largest influence on the regional biases. Despite improvements introduced by the eddy-permitting ocean, it is suggested that a higher resolution could be needed for a correct simulation of the features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation that impact the climate of the IP.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
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    Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations (2020)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-15
    Description: This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experi-ment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–Febru-ary (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 9
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    Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models (2021)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-25
    Description: Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) are analyzed to study deep ocean mixing in the Labrador Sea and the impact of increased horizontal resolution. The representation of convection varies strongly among models. Compared to observations from ARGO-floats and the EN4 data set, most models substantially overestimate deep convection in the Labrador Sea. In four out of five models, all four using the NEMO-ocean model, increasing the ocean resolution from 1° to 1/4° leads to increased deep mixing in the Labrador Sea. Increasing the atmospheric resolution has a smaller effect than increasing the ocean resolution. Simulated convection in the Labrador Sea is mainly governed by the release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and by the vertical stratification of the water masses in the Labrador Sea in late autumn. Models with stronger sub-polar gyre circulation have generally higher surface salinity in the Labrador Sea and a deeper convection. While the high-resolution models show more realistic ocean stratification in the Labrador Sea than the standard resolution models, they generally overestimate the convection. The results indicate that the representation of sub-grid scale mixing processes might be imperfect in the models and contribute to the biases in deep convection. Since in more than half of the models, the Labrador Sea convection is important for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this raises questions about the future behavior of the AMOC in the models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
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    Assessment of the Canary current upwelling system in a regionally coupled climate model (2021)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: The Canary current upwelling is one of the major eastern boundary coastal upwelling systems in the world, bearing a high productive ecosystem and commercially important fisheries. The Canary current upwelling system (CCUS) has a large latitudinal extension, usually divided into upwelling zones with different characteristics. Eddies, filaments and other mesoscale processes are known to have an impact in the upwelling productivity, thus for a proper representation of the CCUS and high horizontal resolution are required. Here we assess the CCUS present climate in the atmosphere–ocean regionally coupled model. The regional coupled model presents a global oceanic component with increased horizontal resolution along the northwestern African coast, and its performance over the CCUS is assessed against relevant reanalysis data sets and compared with an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and an ensemble of atmosphere-only regional climate models (RCMs) in order to assess the role of the horizontal resolution. The coupled system reproduces the larger scale pattern of the CCUS and its latitudinal and seasonal variability over the coastal band, improving the GCMs outputs. Moreover, it shows a performance comparable to the ensemble of RCMs in representing the coastal wind stress and near-surface air temperature fields, showing the impact of the higher resolution and coupling for CCUS climate modelling. The model is able of properly reproducing mesoscale structures, being able to simulate the upwelling filaments events off Cape Ghir, which are not well represented in most of GCMs. Our results stress the ability of the regionally coupled model to reproduce the larger scale as well as mesoscale processes over the CCUS, opening the possibility to evaluate the climate change signal there with increased confidence.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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