Beschreibung: Current climate models systematically underestimate the strength of oceanic fronts associated with strong western boundary currents, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream Extensions, and have difficulty simulating their positions at the mid-latitude ocean’s western boundaries1. Even with an enhanced grid resolution to resolve ocean mesoscale eddies—energetic circulations with horizontal scales of about a hundred kilometres that strongly interact with the fronts and currents—the bias problem can still persist2; to improve climate models we need a better understanding of the dynamics governing these oceanic frontal regimes. Yet prevailing theories about the western boundary fronts are based on ocean internal dynamics without taking into consideration the intense air–sea feedbacks in these oceanic frontal regions. Here, by focusing on the Kuroshio Extension Jet east of Japan as the direct continuation of the Kuroshio, we show that feedback between ocean mesoscale eddies and the atmosphere (OME-A) is fundamental to the dynamics and control of these energetic currents. Suppressing OME-A feedback in eddy-resolving coupled climate model simulations results in a 20–40 per cent weakening in the Kuroshio Extension Jet. This is because OME-A feedback dominates eddy potential energy destruction, which dissipates more than 70 per cent of the eddy potential energy extracted from the Kuroshio Extension Jet. The absence of OME-A feedback inevitably leads to a reduction in eddy potential energy production in order to balance the energy budget, which results in a weakened mean current. The finding has important implications for improving climate models’ representation of major oceanic fronts, which are essential components in the simulation and prediction of extratropical storms and other extreme events3, 4, 5, 6, as well as in the projection of the effect on these events of climate change.

Beschreibung: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Beschreibung: Hepatic progenitor cells (HPC) play important roles in both liver regeneration and carcinogenesis. Combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (CHC), a malignant primary liver tumor with poor prognosis, is thought to be of HPC origin. However, the prognostic significance of this etiology is not well defined. Therefore, we retrospectively investigated the relationship of HPC-related pathological features and long-term outcome in patients with CHC in our department. In a cohort of 80 patients identified between 1997 and 2003, including 70 patients who underwent resection with curative intent, overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were correlated with the proliferative activity of non-tumor ductular reaction (DR) and the expression levels of HPC and biliary markers including α-fetoprotein (AFP), Keratin 7 (K7), Keratin 19 (K19), oval cell (OV)-6, epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) and c-Kit in both tumor and non-tumor liver. We found that non-tumor ductular reactions (DRs), specifically the proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) labeling index of the ductular reaction (PI-DR), a surrogate for transit-amplifying compartments, was an independent prognostic factor for both OS and DFS. By contrast, intratumoral expression of only one marker, absence of AFP, was associated with OS. PI-DR was also found independently associated with synchronous “multicentric occurrence” in hepatocellular carcinoma components, a feature of CHC may predispose to metachronous multifocal tumorigenesis. Conclusion: Proliferative ductular reaction related to HPC activation is associated with recurrence of CHC. Background HPC activation is strongly associated with multifocal occurrence and related tumor recurrence, highlighting the critical role of background liver disease, a “field effect”, in the recurrence of CHC. (H EPATOLOGY 2012.)