Description: In order to examine the effects of warming and diversity changes on primary productivity, we conducted a meta-analysis on six independent indoor mesocosm experiments with a natural plankton community from the Baltic Sea. Temperature effects on primary productivity changed with light intensity and zooplankton density and analysed pathways between temperature, diversity and productivity, elucidating direct and indirect effects of warming on primary productivity during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Our findings indicate that warming directly increased carbon specific primary productivity, which was more pronounced under low grazing pressure. On the other hand, primary productivity per unit water volume did not respond to increased temperature, because of a negative temperature effect on phytoplankton biomass. Moreover, primary productivity response to temperature changes depended on light limitation. Using path analysis, we tested whether temperature effects were direct or mediated by warming effects on phytoplankton diversity. Although phytoplankton species richness had a positive impact on both net primary productivity and carbon specific primary productivity – and evenness had a negative effect on net primary productivity – both richness and evenness were not affected by temperature. Thus, we suggest that diversity effects on primary productivity depended mainly on other factors than temperature like grazing, sinking or nutrient limitation, which themselves are temperature dependent. Highlights ► Impact of warming on primary productivity and diversity–productivity relationship. ► Meta-analysis on indoor mesocosm experiments with a natural plankton community. ► Temperature has a direct impact on specific productivity, not on net productivity. ► Species richness increases and evenness decreases net primary productivity. ► Temperature does not directly affect diversity–productivity relationship.