Beschreibung: Author Posting. © Oceanography Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 22 no. 4 (2009): 16-25.

Beschreibung: Over a period of less than a decade, ocean acidification—the change in seawater chemistry due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and subsequent impacts on marine life—has become one of the most critical and pressing issues facing the ocean research community and marine resource managers alike. The objective of this special issue of Oceanography is to provide an overview of the current scientific understanding of ocean acidification as well as to indicate the substantial gaps in our present knowledge. Papers in the special issue discuss the past, current, and future trends in seawater chemistry; highlight potential vulnerabilities to marine species, ecosystems, and marine resources to elevated CO2; and outline a roadmap toward future research directions. In this introductory article, we present a brief introduction on ocean acidification and some historical context for how it emerged so quickly and recently as a key research topic.

Beschreibung: We thank the National Science Foundation (NSF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for research support on ocean acidification. We specifically acknowledge grants supporting the OCB Project Office (NSF OCE-0622984, NSF OCE-0927287, and NASA NNX08AX01G). Richard A. Feely was supported by the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations (Grant No. GC04-314 and the Global Carbon Cycle Program (Grant No. GC05-288).

Beschreibung: Author Posting. © Oceanography Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 22 no. 4 (2009): 36-47.

Beschreibung: The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the global ocean induces fundamental changes in seawater chemistry that could have dramatic impacts on biological ecosystems in the upper ocean. Estimates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business-as-usual emission scenarios suggest that atmospheric CO2 levels could approach 800 ppm near the end of the century. Corresponding biogeochemical models for the ocean indicate that surface water pH will drop from a pre-industrial value of about 8.2 to about 7.8 in the IPCC A2 scenario by the end of this century, increasing the ocean’s acidity by about 150% relative to the beginning of the industrial era. In contemporary ocean water, elevated CO2 will also cause substantial reductions in surface water carbonate ion concentrations, in terms of either absolute changes or fractional changes relative to pre-industrial levels. For most open-ocean surface waters, aragonite undersaturation occurs when carbonate ion concentrations drop below approximately 66 μmol kg-1. The model projections indicate that aragonite undersaturation will start to occur by about 2020 in the Arctic Ocean and 2050 in the Southern Ocean. By 2050, all of the Arctic will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite, and by 2095, all of the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Pacific will be undersaturated. For calcite, undersaturation occurs when carbonate ion concentration drops below 42 μmol kg-1. By 2095, most of the Arctic and some parts of the Bering and Chukchi seas will be undersaturated with respect to calcite. However, in most of the other ocean basins, the surface waters will still be saturated with respect to calcite, but at a level greatly reduced from the present.

Beschreibung: S. Cooley and S. Doney acknowledge support from NSF ATM-0628582. Richard A. Feely was supported by the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations (Grant No. GC04-314 and the Global Carbon Cycle Program (Grant No. GC05-288).

Beschreibung: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1% relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.9±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9±0.8GtCyr-1 (40.0±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.5±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.9GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.6GtCyr-1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0% (0.1% to 1.9%) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2ppm, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels (around 278ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2021, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).