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  • 1
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    Understanding summer wind systems over the eastern Mediterranean in a high‐resolution climate simulation (2022)
    Latt, Melissa R. ; Hochman, Assaf ; Caldas‐Alvarez, Alberto ; [et al.]
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-12
    Description: Regional and local wind systems are often complex, particularly near coastal areas with a highly variable orography. Thus, the realistic representation of regional wind systems in weather and climate models is of strong relevance. Here, we evaluate the ability of a 13‐year convection‐permitting climate simulation in reproducing the interaction of several regional summer wind systems over the complex orography in the eastern Mediterranean region. The COSMO‐CLM simulations are driven by hourly ERA‐5 reanalysis and have a spatial resolution of 2.8 and 7.0 km. The simulated near‐surface wind fields are compared with unique very high‐resolution wind observations collected within the “Dead Sea Research Venue” project (DESERVE) and data from the Israel Meteorological Service synop network. The high‐resolution COSMO‐CLM simulations largely reproduce the main characteristics of the regional wind systems (Mediterranean and Dead Sea breeze, slope winds in the Judean Mountains and winds along the Jordan Rift valley), whereas ERA‐5 is only able to represent the Mediterranean Sea breeze. The high‐resolution simulations substantially improve the representation of regional winds, particularly over complex orography. Indeed, the 2.8 km simulation outperforms the 7.0 km run, on 88% of the days. Two mid‐July 2015 case studies show that only the 2.8 simulation can realistically simulate the penetration of the Mediterranean Sea Breeze into the Jordan Rift valley and complex interactions with other wind systems like the Dead Sea breeze. Our results may have profound implications for regional weather and climate prediction since very high‐resolution information seems to be necessary to reproduce the main summertime climatic features in this region. We envisage that such simulations may also be required at other regions with complex orography.
    Description: In this paper we show that COSMO‐CLM regional climate model simulations at 7.0 (CLM‐7.0) and 2.8km (CLM‐2.8) resolution can realistically reproduce near‐surface regional and local wind systems over the complex orography of the eastern Mediterranean as opposite to coarser resolutions (ERA‐5, 31 km). The Mediterranean and local Dead Sea breezes, slope winds over the Judean Mountains, and winds along the Jordan Rift valley are well represented both climatologically and on individual days. CLM‐2.8 captures the small‐scale variability of the wind field better than CLM‐7.0 particularly near the Dead Sea and on 88% of the days CLM‐2.8 represents wind speed even more realistically than CLM‐7.0. image
    Description: German Helmholtz Association (“Changing Earth” program)
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: Ministry of Science, Research and Arts
    Description: Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; complex orography ; convection permitting ; COSMO‐CLM ; Dead Sea ; eastern Mediterranean ; grid spacing ; regional climate modelling ; sea breeze
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 2
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    Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of historical European heat waves (1979–2019) (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Europe has been affected by record‐breaking heat waves in recent decades. Using station data and a gridded reanalysis as input, four commonly used heat wave indices, the heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId), excess heat factor (EHF), wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and universal thermal climate index (UTCI), are computed. The extremeness of historical European heat waves between 1979 and 2019 using the four indices and different metrics is ranked. A normalisation to enable the comparison between the four indices is introduced. Additionally, a method to quantify the influence of the input parameters on heat wave magnitude is introduced. The spatio‐temporal behaviour of heat waves is assessed by spatial–temporal tracking. The areal extent, large‐scale intensity and duration are visualized using bubble plots. As expected, temperature explains the largest variance in all indices, but humidity is nearly as important in WBGT and wind speed plays a substantial role in UTCI. While the 2010 Russian heat wave is by far the most extreme event in duration and intensity in all normalized indices, the 2018 heat wave was comparable in size for EHF, WBGT and UTCI. Interestingly, the well‐known 2003 central European heat wave was only the fifth and tenth strongest in cumulative intensity in WBGT and UTCI, respectively. The June and July 2019 heat waves were very intense, but short‐lived, thus not belonging to the top heat waves in Europe when duration and areal extent are taken into account. Overall, the proposed normalized indices and the multi‐metric assessment of large‐scale heat waves allow for a more robust description of their extremeness and will be helpful to assess heat waves worldwide and in climate projections.
    Description: Europe has been affected by record‐breaking heat waves in recent decades. Using station data and a gridded reanalysis, the extremeness of European heat waves between 1979 and 2019 is ranked using four indices: heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId), excess heat factor (EHF), wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and universal thermal climate index (UTCI). In order to assess heatwaves worldwide and in climate projections, the spatial extent, large‐scale intensity and duration of heatwaves are visualized using bubble plots.
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009133
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; duration ; heat wave ; indices ; intensity ; large‐scale ; spatial extent
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
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    Regionally coupled atmosphere - ocean - marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 2. Studying the climate change signal in the North Atlantic and Europe (2020)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Wiley, n/a(n/a), pp. e2019MS001646, ISSN: 1942-2466
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-06
    Description: Climate simulations for the North Atlantic and Europe for recent and future conditions simulated with the regionally coupled ROM model are analyzed and compared to the results from the MPI‐ESM. The ROM simulations also include a biogeochemistry and ocean tides. For recent climate conditions, ROM generally improves the simulations compared to the driving model MPI‐ESM. Reduced oceanic biases in the Northern Atlantic are found, as well as a better simulation of the atmospheric circulation, notably storm tracks and blocking. Regarding future climate projections for the 21st century following the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, MPI‐ESM and ROM largely agree qualitatively on the climate change signal over Europe. However, many important differences are identified. For example, ROM shows an SST cooling in the Subpolar Gyre which is not present in MPI‐ESM. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, ROM Arctic sea ice cover is thinner and reaches the seasonally ice‐free state by 2055, well before MPI‐ESM. This shows the decisive importance of higher ocean resolution and regional coupling for determining the regional responses to global warming trends. Regarding biogeochemistry, both ROM and MPI‐ESM simulate a widespread decline in winter nutrient concentration in the North Atlantic of up to ~35%. On the other hand, the phytoplankton spring bloom in the Arctic and in the North‐Western Atlantic starts earlier and the yearly primary production is enhanced in the Arctic in the late 21st century. These results clearly demonstrate the added value of ROM to determine more detailed and more reliable climate projections at the regional scale.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 4
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    Regionally coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐ sea ice‐marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. Description and validation. (2015)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Wiley, ISSN: 1942-2466
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-02-17
    Description: The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean – regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present day climate. A global ocean – sea ice – marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e. ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 5
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    The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Regional climate predictions for the next decade are gaining importance, as this period falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. The potential predictability of climate indices or extremes at the regional scale is of particular interest. The German MiKlip project (“mid‐term climate forecast”) developed the first regional decadal prediction system for Europe at 0.44° resolution, based on the regional model COSMO‐CLM using global MPI‐ESM simulations as boundary conditions. We analyse the skill of this regional system focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. The considered quantities are related to temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, wind impacts, and the agronomy sector. Variables related to temperature (e.g., frost days, heat wave days) show high predictive skill (anomaly correlation up to 0.9) with very little dependence on lead‐time, and the skill patterns are spatially robust. The skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables (e.g., heavy precipitation days) and wind‐based indices (like storm days) are less skilful and more heterogeneous, particularly for the latter. Quantities related to the agronomy sector (e.g., growing degree days) show high predictive skill, comparable to temperature. Overall, we provide evidence that decadal predictive skill can be generally found at the regional scale also for extremes and user‐oriented variables, demonstrating how the utility of decadal predictions can be substantially enhanced. This is a very promising first step towards impact‐related modelling at the regional scale and the development of individual user‐oriented products for stakeholders.
    Description: The skill of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is analysed focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. Variables related to temperature extremes and the agronomy sector show high predictive skill with very little dependence on lead‐time. Skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables and wind‐based indices are less skilful and more heterogeneous, especially for the latter.
    Description: The study was mainly funded by the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) under project FONA MiKlip‐II http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate services ; Europe ; extremes ; MiKlip ; regional decadal predictions ; user needs
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Perspectives of regional paleoclimate modeling (2019)
    Wiley
    In:  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1436 (1). pp. 54-69.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-01-02
    Description: Regional climate modeling bridges the gap between the coarse resolution of current global climate models and the regional-to-local scales, where the impacts of climate change are of primary interest. Here, we present a review of the added value of the regional climate modeling approach within the scope of paleoclimate research and discuss the current major challenges and perspectives. Two time periods serve as an example: the Holocene, including the Last Millennium, and the Last Glacial Maximum. Reviewing the existing literature reveals the benefits of regional paleo climate modeling, particularly over areas with complex terrain. However, this depends largely on the variable of interest, as the added value of regional modeling arises from a more realistic representation of physical processes and climate feedbacks compared to global climate models, and this affects different climate variables in various ways. In particular, hydrological processes have been shown to be better represented in regional models, and they can deliver more realistic meteorological data to drive ice sheet and glacier modeling. Thus, regional climate models provide a clear benefit to answer fundamental paleoclimate research questions and may be key to advance a meaningful joint interpretation of climate model and proxy data.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13865
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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