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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 50(4), ISSN: 0094-8276
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-23
    Beschreibung: Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 128(3), ISSN: 2169-9275
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-23
    Beschreibung: The Arctic is warming much faster than the global average. This is known as Arctic Amplification and is caused by feedbacks in the local climate system. In this study, we explore a previously proposed hypothesis that an associated wind feedback in the Barents Sea could play an important role by increasing the warm water inflow into the Barents Sea. We find that the strong recent decrease in Barents Sea winter sea ice cover causes enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux and a local air temperature increase, thus a reduction in sea level pressure and a local cyclonic wind anomaly with eastward winds in the Barents Sea Opening. By investigating various reanalysis products and performing high-resolution perturbation experiments with the ocean and sea ice model FESOM2.1, we studied the impact of cyclonic atmospheric circulation changes on the warm Atlantic Water import into the Arctic via the Barents Sea and Fram Strait. We found that the observed wind changes do not significantly affect the warm water transport into the Barents Sea, which rejects the wind-feedback hypothesis. At the same time, the cyclonic wind anomalies in the Barents Sea increase the amount of Atlantic Water recirculating westwards in Fram Strait by a downslope shift of the West Spitsbergen Current, and thus reduce Atlantic Water reaching the Arctic basin via Fram Strait. The resulting warm-water anomaly in the Greenland Sea Gyre drives a local anticyclonic circulation anomaly.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 13(10), ISSN: 1942-2466
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-21
    Beschreibung: We propose to make the damping time scale, which governs the decay of pseudo-elastic waves in the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) sea-ice solvers, independent of the external time step and large enough to warrant numerical stability for a moderate number of internal time steps. A necessary condition is that the forcing on sea ice varies slowly on the damping time scale, in which case an EVP solution may still approach a Viscous Plastic one, but on a time scale longer than a single external time step. In this case, the EVP method becomes very close to the recently proposed modified EVP (mEVP) method in terms of stability and simulated behavior. In a simple test case dealing with sea ice breaking under the forcing of a moving cyclone, the EVP method with an enlarged damping time scale can simulate linear kinematic features which are very similar to those from the traditional EVP implementation, although a much smaller number of internal time steps is used. There is more difference in sea-ice thickness and linear kinematic features simulated in a realistic Arctic configuration between using the traditional and our suggested choices of EVP damping time scales, but it is minor considering model uncertainties associated with choices of many other parameters in sea-ice models.
    Repository-Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Materialart: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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