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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C08S02, doi:10.1029/2003JC002256.
    Description: GasEx-2001, a 15-day air-sea carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange study conducted in the equatorial Pacific, used a combination of ships, buoys, and drifters equipped with ocean and atmospheric sensors to assess variability and surface mechanisms controlling air-sea CO2 fluxes. Direct covariance and profile method air-sea CO2 fluxes were measured together with the surface ocean and marine boundary layer processes. The study took place in February 2001 near 125°W, 3°S in a region of high CO2. The diurnal variation in the air-sea CO2 difference was 2.5%, driven predominantly by temperature effects on surface solubility. The wind speed was 6.0 ± 1.3 m s−1, and the atmospheric boundary layer was unstable with conditions over the range −1 〈 z/L 〈 0. Diurnal heat fluxes generated daytime surface ocean stratification and subsequent large nighttime buoyancy fluxes. The average CO2 flux from the ocean to the atmosphere was determined to be 3.9 mol m−2 yr−1, with nighttime CO2 fluxes increasing by 40% over daytime values because of a strong nighttime increase in (vertical) convective velocities. The 15 days of air-sea flux measurements taken during GasEx-2001 demonstrate some of the systematic environmental trends of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The fact that other physical processes, in addition to wind, were observed to control the rate of CO2 transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere indicates that these processes need to be taken into account in local and global biogeochemical models. These local processes can vary on regional and global scales. The GasEx-2001 results show a weak wind dependence but a strong variability in processes governed by the diurnal heating cycle. This implies that any changes in the incident radiation, including atmospheric cloud dynamics, phytoplankton biomass, and surface ocean stratification may have significant feedbacks on the amount and variability of air-sea gas exchange. This is in sharp contrast with previous field studies of air-sea gas exchange, which showed that wind was the dominating forcing function. The results suggest that gas transfer parameterizations that rely solely on wind will be insufficient for regions with low to intermediate winds and strong insolation.
    Description: This work was performed with the support of the National Science Foundation Grant OCE-9986724 and the NOAA Global Carbon Cycle Program Grants NA06GP048, NA17RJ1223, and NA87RJ0445 in the Office of Global Programs.
    Keywords: Air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes ; Equatorial Pacific ; Direct covariance technique ; Profile flux technique ; Diurnal surface layer
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22 (2008): GB4027, doi:10.1029/2007GB003167.
    Description: Observational studies report a rapid decline of ocean CO2 uptake in the temperate North Atlantic during the last decade. We analyze these findings using ocean physical-biological numerical simulations forced with interannually varying atmospheric conditions for the period 1979–2004. In the simulations, surface ocean water mass properties and CO2 system variables exhibit substantial multiannual variability on sub-basin scales in response to wind-driven reorganization in ocean circulation and surface warming/cooling. The simulated temporal evolution of the ocean CO2 system is broadly consistent with reported observational trends and is influenced substantially by the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Many of the observational estimates cover a period after 1995 of mostly negative or weakly positive NAO conditions, which are characterized in the simulations by reduced North Atlantic Current transport of subtropical waters into the eastern basin and by a decline in CO2 uptake. We suggest therefore that air-sea CO2 uptake may rebound in the eastern temperate North Atlantic during future periods of more positive NAO, similar to the patterns found in our model for the sustained positive NAO period in the early 1990s. Thus, our analysis indicates that the recent rapid shifts in CO2 flux reflect decadal perturbations superimposed on more gradual secular trends. The simulations highlight the need for long-term ocean carbon observations and modeling to fully resolve multiannual variability, which can obscure detection of the long-term changes associated with anthropogenic CO2 uptake and climate change.
    Description: S. C. Doney and I. D. Lima were supported by NASA grant NNG05GG30G.
    Keywords: North Atlantic ; CO2 uptake ; NAO
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C08S11, doi:10.1029/2003JC001831.
    Description: During the two recent GasEx field experiments, direct covariance measurements of air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes were obtained over the open ocean. Concurrently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Coupled-Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment air-sea gas transfer parameterization was developed to predict gas transfer velocities from measurements of the bulk state of the sea surface and atmosphere. The model output is combined with measurements of the mean air and sea surface carbon dioxide fugacities to provide estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux, and the model is then tuned to the GasEx-1998 data set. Because of differences in the local environment and possibly because of weaknesses in the model, some discrepancies are observed between the predicted fluxes from the GasEx-1998 and GasEx-2001 cases. To provide an estimate of the contribution to the air-sea flux of gas due to wave-breaking processes, the whitecap and bubble parameterizations are removed from the model output. These results show that moderate (approximately 15 m s−1) wind speed breaking wave gas transfer processes account for a fourfold increase in the flux over the modeled interfacial processes.
    Description: This work was supported by the NOAA Office of Global Programs, under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Dilling. WHOI was supported by the National Science Foundation grant OCE-9711218.
    Keywords: Air-sea interaction ; Air-sea flux ; Air-gas transfer
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): C08S08, doi:10.1029/2003JC001800.
    Description: The difference in the fugacities of CO2 across the diffusive sublayer at the ocean surface is the driving force behind the air-sea flux of CO2. Bulk seawater fugacity is normally measured several meters below the surface, while the fugacity at the water surface, assumed to be in equilibrium with the atmosphere, is measured several meters above the surface. Implied in these measurements is that the fugacity values are the same as those across the diffusive boundary layer. However, temperature gradients exist at the interface due to molecular transfer processes, resulting in a cool surface temperature, known as the skin effect. A warm layer from solar radiation can also result in a heterogeneous temperature profile within the upper few meters of the ocean. Here we describe measurements carried out during a 14-day study in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (GasEx-2001) aimed at estimating the gradients of CO2 near the surface and resulting flux anomalies. The fugacity measurements were corrected for temperature effects using data from the ship's thermosalinograph, a high-resolution profiler (SkinDeEP), an infrared radiometer (CIRIMS), and several point measurements at different depths on various platforms. Results from SkinDeEP show that the largest cool skin and warm layer biases occur at low winds, with maximum biases of −4% and +4%, respectively. Time series ship data show an average CO2 flux cool skin retardation of about 2%. Ship and drifter data show significant CO2 flux enhancement due to the warm layer, with maximums occurring in the afternoon. Temperature measurements were compared to predictions based on available cool skin parameterizations to predict the skin-bulk temperature difference, along with a warm layer model.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the NSF under grant OCE-9986724, and by NOAA/OGP grant GC00-226.
    Keywords: Air-sea CO2 flux ; Warm layer ; Cool skin
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): C12099, doi:10.1029/2009JC005835.
    Keywords: Modeling ; Climate ; Carbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3023, doi:10.1029/2010GB004009.
    Description: A common approach for estimating the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (Canthro) depends on the linear approximation of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from a suite of physical and biological ocean parameters. The extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method assumes that baseline correlations and the resulting residual fields will remain constant with time even under the influence of secular climate changes. The validity of these assumptions over the 21st century is tested using a coupled carbon-climate model. Findings demonstrate that the influence of both changing climate and changing chemistry beyond 2–4 decades invalidates the assumption that the residual fields will remain constant resulting in significant errors in the eMLR estimate of Canthro. This study determines that the eMLR method is unable to describe Canthro uptake for a sampling interval of greater than 30 years if the error is to remain below 20% for many regions in the Southern Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and western Pacific Ocean. These results suggest that, for many regions of the ocean basins, hydrographic field investigations have to be repeated at approximately decadal timescales in order to accurately predict the uptake of Canthro by the ocean if the eMLR method is used.
    Description: This work was supported by NOAA grant NA07OAR4310098 (SCD and RW) and funding from the University of Hong Kong (NFG).
    Keywords: Anthropogenic carbon detection ; Global ocean model ; Impact of global change ; Ocean carbon sink
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Carter, B. R., Feely, R. A., Wanninkhof, R., Kouketsu, S., Sonnerup, R. E., Pardo, P. C., Sabine, C. L., Johnson, G. C., Sloyan, B. M., Murata, A., Mecking, S., Tilbrook, B., Speer, K., Talley, L. D., Millero, F. J., Wijffels, S. E., Macdonald, A. M., Gruber, N., & Bullister, J. L. Pacific anthropogenic carbon between 1991 and 2017. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33(5), (2019):597-617, doi:10.1029/2018GB006154.
    Description: We estimate anthropogenic carbon (Canth) accumulation rates in the Pacific Ocean between 1991 and 2017 from 14 hydrographic sections that have been occupied two to four times over the past few decades, with most sections having been recently measured as part of the Global Ocean Ship‐based Hydrographic Investigations Program. The rate of change of Canth is estimated using a new method that combines the extended multiple linear regression method with improvements to address the challenges of analyzing multiple occupations of sections spaced irregularly in time. The Canth accumulation rate over the top 1,500 m of the Pacific increased from 8.8 (±1.1, 1σ) Pg of carbon per decade between 1995 and 2005 to 11.7 (±1.1) PgC per decade between 2005 and 2015. For the entire Pacific, about half of this decadal increase in the accumulation rate is attributable to the increase in atmospheric CO2, while in the South Pacific subtropical gyre this fraction is closer to one fifth. This suggests a substantial enhancement of the accumulation of Canth in the South Pacific by circulation variability and implies that a meaningful portion of the reinvigoration of the global CO2 sink that occurred between ~2000 and ~2010 could be driven by enhanced ocean Canth uptake and advection into this gyre. Our assessment suggests that the accuracy of Canth accumulation rate reconstructions along survey lines is limited by the accuracy of the full suite of hydrographic data and that a continuation of repeated surveys is a critical component of future carbon cycle monitoring.
    Description: The data we use can be accessed at CCHDO website (https://cchdo.ucsd.edu/) and GLODAP website (https://www.glodap.info/). This research would not be possible without the hard work of the scientists and crew aboard the many repeated hydrographic cruises coordinated by GO‐SHIP, which is funded by NSF OCE and NOAA OAR. We thank funding agencies and program managers as follows: U.S., Australian, Japanese national science funding agencies that support data collection, data QA/QC, and data centers. Contributions from B. R. C., R. A. F., and R. W. are supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (Data Management and Synthesis Grant: N8R3CEA‐PDM managed by Kathy Tedesco and David Legler). G. C. J. is supported by the Climate Observation Division, Climate Program Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce and NOAA Research (fund reference 100007298), grant (N8R1SE3‐PGC). B. M. S was supported by the Australian Government Department of the Environment and CSIRO through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme and by the National Environmental Science Program. N. G. acknowledges support by ETH Zurich. This is JISAO contribution 2018‐0149 and PMEL contribution 4786. We fondly remember John Bullister as a treasured friend, valued colleague, and dedicated mentor, and we thank him for sharing his days with us. He is and will be dearly missed.
    Keywords: Anthropogenic carbon ; Pacific ; Decadal variability ; EMLR ; Ocean acidification ; Repeat hydrography
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): C09013, doi:10.1029/2008JC005183.
    Description: Here we use observations and ocean models to identify mechanisms driving large seasonal to interannual variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved oxygen (O2) in the upper ocean. We begin with observations linking variations in upper ocean DIC and O2 inventories with changes in the physical state of the ocean. Models are subsequently used to address the extent to which the relationships derived from short-timescale (6 months to 2 years) repeat measurements are representative of variations over larger spatial and temporal scales. The main new result is that convergence and divergence (column stretching) attributed to baroclinic Rossby waves can make a first-order contribution to DIC and O2 variability in the upper ocean. This results in a close correspondence between natural variations in DIC and O2 column inventory variations and sea surface height (SSH) variations over much of the ocean. Oceanic Rossby wave activity is an intrinsic part of the natural variability in the climate system and is elevated even in the absence of significant interannual variability in climate mode indices. The close correspondence between SSH and both DIC and O2 column inventories for many regions suggests that SSH changes (inferred from satellite altimetry) may prove useful in reducing uncertainty in separating natural and anthropogenic DIC signals (using measurements from Climate Variability and Predictability's CO2/Repeat Hydrography program).
    Description: This report was prepared by K.B.R. under awards NA17RJ2612 and NA08OAR4320752, which includes support through the NOAA Office of Climate Observations (OCO). The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce. Support for K.B.R. was also provided by the Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) through the support of BP, Amaco, and Ford. R.M.K. was supported by NOAA grants NA17RJ2612, NA08OAR4320752, and NA08OAR4310820. F.F.P. was supported by the European Union FP6 CARBOOCEAN Integrated project (contract 51176), the French OVIDE project, and the Spanish Salvador de Madariaga program (PR2006– 0523). This work was also supported by the European NOCES project (EVK2-CT201-00134). Y.Y. and A.I. are partly supported by CREST, JST of Japan. The long-term OISO observational program in the South Indian Ocean is supported by the following three French institutes: INSU (Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers), IPSL (Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace), and IPEV (Institut Paul-Emile Victor).
    Keywords: Modeling ; Climate ; Carbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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