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  • American Geophysical Union  (2)
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  • 1
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    Discrimination between induced, triggered and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbon reservoirs: A probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters. (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions (pdf). The probability that events have been human-triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived, seismological information on the event location, source mechanism and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main-shock events: (1) the Mw 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field, the 2004 Mw 4.4 Rotenburg, Northern Germany earthquake in the vicinity of the Söhlingen gas field, and the Mw 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly “human-induced”, “not even human-triggered” and a third case in-between both extremes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2491–2509
    Description: 6T. Sismicità indotta e caratterizzazione sismica dei sistemi naturali
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Induced seismicity ; probabilistic discrimination ; hydrocarbon field ; triggered earthquake ; seismic hazard ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 2
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    New insights on volcanic and tectonic structures of the southern Tyrrhenian (Italy) from marine and land seismic data (2013)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present results from the first crustal seismic tomography for the southern Tyrrhenian area, which includes ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) data and a bathymetry correction. This area comprises Mt. Etna, the Aeolian Islands, and many volcanic seamounts, including the Marsili Seamount. The seismicity distribution in the area depends on the complex interaction between tectonics and volcanism. The 3-D velocity model presented in this study is obtained by the inversion of P wave arrival times from crustal earthquakes. We integrate travel time data recorded by an OBS network (Tyrrhenian Deep Sea Experiment), the SN-1 seafloor observatory, and the land network. Our model shows a high correlation between the P wave anomaly distribution and seismic and volcanic structures. Two main low-velocity anomalies underlie the central Aeolian Islands and Mt. Etna. The two volumes, which are related to the well-known active volcanism, are separated and located at different depths. This finding, in agreement with structural, petrography, and GPS data from literature, confirms the independence of the two systems. The strongest negative anomaly is found below Mt. Etna at the base of the crust, and we associate it with the deep feeding system of the volcano. We infer that most of the seismicity is generated in brittle rock volumes that are affected by the action of hot fluids under high pressure due to the active volcanism in the area. Lateral changes of velocity are related to a transition from the western to the central Aeolian Islands and to the passage from continental crust to the Tyrrhenian oceanic uppermost mantle.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3703–3719
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: ocean bottom seismometers ; southern Tyrrhenian Sea ; seismic tomography ; Aeolian Islands ; Etna ; oceanic continental crust ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    PAPER (OA)
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