Description: Characteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). There is a tendency towards a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐ (ENSO) related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP SST annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically‐induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolution on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.

Description: Past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are routinely estimated from organic and inorganic remains of fossil phytoplankton or zooplankton organisms, recovered from sea floor sediments. Potential seasonal biases of paleo proxies were intensely studied in the past, however, even for the two most commonly used paleo proxies for SST, UK0 37 and Mg/Ca ratios, a clear global picture does not yet exist. In the present study we combine Holocene SST trends derived from UK0 37 and Mg/Ca ratios with results from idealized climate model simulations forced by changes in the orbital conguration, which represents the major climate driver over the last 10 kyrs. Such changes cause a spatio-temporal redistribution of incoming solar radiation resulting in a modulation of amplitude and phasing of the seasonal cycle. Considering that the climate signal recorded by a plankton-based paleo proxy may be aected by the seasonal productivity cycle of the respective organism, we use the modern relationship between SST and marine net primary production (NPP), both obtained from satellite observations, to calculate a seasonality index (SI) as an independent constraint to link modeled SST trends with proxy data. Although the climate model systematically underestimates Holocene SST trends, we find that seasonal productivity peaks of the phytoplankton-based UK0 37 result in a preferential registering of the warm (cold) season in high (low) latitudes, as it was expected from the SI distribution. The overall smoother trends from the zooplankton-derived Mg/Ca-SSTs suggest a more integrated signal over longer time averages, which may also carry a seasonal bias, but the spatial pattern is less clear. Based on our ndings, careful multi-proxy approaches can actually go beyond the reconstruction of average climate trends, specifically allowing to resolve the evolution of seasonality.

Description: The intensity of the two major atmospheric tropical circulations, the Hadley and Walker circulation, has been analyzed in simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) of the early Eemian and the early Holocene, both warmer climate epochs compared to the late Holocene, or pre-industrial era. The KCM was forced by changes in orbital parameters corresponding to the early and late Holocene (9.5kyr BP and pre-industrial) and the early Eemian (126kyr BP). An intensification of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter Hadley cell and a northward extension of its rising branch, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, relative to pre-industrial are simulated for both warm periods. The Walker circulation's rising branch is shifted westward towards the Indian Ocean due to an increased zonal tropical sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Indo-Pacific Ocean, which drives enhanced easterlies over this region. The simulated vertically-integrated water vapor transport across the Equator shows the strongest response for the SH winter (boreal summer) Hadley cell over the Pacific Ocean due to an enhanced cross-equatorial SST gradient in the tropical Pacific during the early Holocene and the early Eemian. The orbitally-induced increase of the cross-equatorial insolation gradient in the tropical Pacific leads to a strengthening (weakening) of the wind speed and enhanced (reduced) evaporative cooling over the southern (northern) tropical Pacific, which reinforces the initial radiatively-forced meridional SST gradient change. The increased cross-equatorial insolation gradient in combination with the strong wind-evaporation-SST feedback and changing humidity are important mechanisms to enhance the SH winter Hadley circulation response to orbital forcing. Key Points: Intensification of the SH winter Hadley cell for the early Holocene and Eemian. Walker circulation's rising branch is shifted westward towards the Indian Ocean. WES feedback plays key role in intensification of the Hadley circulation.

Description: The sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to changes in orbital forcing and atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations is assessed using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (Kiel Climate Model). An orbitally-induced intensification of the summer monsoon circulation during the Holocene and Eemian drives enhanced water vapor advection into the Northern Hemisphere, thereby enhancing the rate of water vapor changes by about 30% relative to the rate given by the Clausius-Clapeyron Equation, assuming constant relative humidity. Orbitally-induced changes in hemispheric-mean precipitation are fully attributed to inter-hemispheric water vapor exchange in contrast to a GHG forced warming, where enhanced precipitation is caused by increased both the moisture advection and evaporation. When considering the future climate on millennial time scales, both forcings combined are expected to exert a strong effect.

Description: We performed simulations with a global model of ocean biogeochemistry forced with orbitally driven anomalies of oceanic conditions for the mid-Holocene, known as Holocene climate optimum, to investigate natural variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (EEP OMZ). While the global mean temperature during the mid-Holocene was likely slightly higher than the 1961–1990 mean, the sea surface temperature in the EEP was slightly lower. Mid-Holocene oxygen concentrations in the EEP OMZ are generally increased, locally by up to 50%, and the EEP OMZ volume was, depending on definition of the OMZ threshold, at least 6% lower. These higher oxygen levels are the combined result of competing physical and biogeochemical processes. Our results imply that mechanisms for past changes in the EEP OMZ intensity and extension can differ from the global warming driven decline in oxygen levels observed for the recent decades and predicted for the future.

Description: According to a recent study, C:N ratios of sinking particulate organic matter (POM) in the ocean appear to be higher than Redfield (7.1 instead of 6.6) and depth dependent (increase +0.2/km). Here we investigate the effects of vertically variable C:N element ratios on marine carbon fluxes and the air-sea exchange of CO2 using a global ocean carbon cycle model (AAMOCC). For a steady-state ocean, the results show that models using the constant classical Redfield ratio underestimate both, total inventory and vertical gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). While the amount of additional DIC (+150 Gt C) is negligible compared to the high marine carbon inventory, the C:N depth dependence can reduce the ambient atmospheric pCO2 by 20 ppm, permanently. Moreover, the simulation of a future scenario, estimating a possible effect of CO2-dependent C:N ratios of POM on the marine carbon cycle, has shown that even a moderate rise in the C:N element ratio of sinking POM, which is on the order of magnitude of natural variability, yields a considerably higher oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 on timescales of decades to centuries. The assumption is based on a predicted increase in the production of highly carbon enriched transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) caused by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enhanced nutrient limitation. However, counteracting a predicted decrease of the physical (solubility) CO2 pump as a consequence of global change, the effect in our scenario will alleviate further rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations rather than compensate a reduced physical uptake.

Description: Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century when forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The model spread, however, is rather large, even when the forcing scenario is identical, indicating a large uncertainty in the response to forcing. In order to reduce the model uncertainties a weighting procedure is applied considering the skill of each model in simulating hydrographic properties and observation-based circulation estimates. This procedure yields a “best estimate” for the evolution of the North Atlantic THC during the 21st century by taking into account a measure of model quality. Using 28 projections from 9 different coupled global climate models of a scenario of future CO2 increase (SRESA1B) performed for the upcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the analysis predicts a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic THC by 25(±25)% until 2100.

Description: The sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon to changes in the tropical Pacific mean climate is investigated with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (AOGCM), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Different mean climate states are generated by changing the orbital forcing that causes a redistribution of solar energy, which was a major driver of both the Holocene and the Eemian climates. We find that the ENSO amplitude is positively correlated with both the Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the equatorial zonal SST contrast. The latter is controlled by the upwelling-induced damping of the SST changes in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), and by the vertical ocean dynamical heating and zonal heat transport convergence in the Western Equatorial Pacific. The ENSO amplitude also correlates positively with the seasonal SST amplitude in the EEP and negatively with the strength of the easterly Trades over the Equatorial Pacific. However, the ENSO period is rather stable and stays within 3–4 years. Enhanced ENSO amplitude is simulated during the late-Holocene, in agreement with paleoproxy records. The tight positive correlation (r = 0.89) between the ENSO strength and the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) SST suggests that the latter may provide an indirect measure of the ENSO amplitude from proxy data that cannot explicitly resolve interannual variability. Key Points: - ENSO amplitude enhances as mean SST & west-east SST gradient rise in tropical Pacific - The broad range frequency peaks at periods of 3-4 years over Holocene and Eemian - The Pacific's warm pool SST is a suitable indicator to monitor ENSO variability

Description: Four indirect methods to determine carbon and nutrient regeneration ratios in the ocean are applied to results from a physical-biogeochemical model with prescribed element ratios for organic matter (de-)composition. The aim is to test whether these methods are suitable to reproduce C org :N:P element ratios of organic matter remineralization, which in contrast to the real ocean are exactly known in the model framework. The model experiment is carried out using the classical C:N:P Redfield ratio of 106:16:1 for production and decomposition of organic material under preindustrial atmospheric pCO2. Two methods rely on predefined end member values, while the others do not. The first method is a simple linear regression of two parameters, neglecting mixing effects, and yields remineralization signals biased by isopycnal tracer gradients induced by contributions of different water masses. The second method is based on multiple linear regression of three parameters, includes mixing of three, but not-prescribed end members. It can, in part, reproduce the prescribed remineralization ratios. However, considerable bias appears as a result of water mass mixing. The third method considers isopycnal mixing of three prescribed end member water masses by using temperature/salinity as conservative tracers on the two density surfaces σΘ = 26.8 and σΘ = 27.2. On the basis of a mixing triangle approach, the method is able to reproduce the regeneration rates best in the low latitudes, where the integrated signal of remineralization is high. The fourth method uses the full set of available parameters to derive mixing fractions and remineralization and is applied to the density range from σΘ = 26.8 to σΘ = 27.2, yielding the best reproduction of prescribed remineralization ratios. As expected, results from the last two methods are sensitive to the choice of end member concentrations. In general, best agreement between modeled and reconstructed ratios is found between 20°N and 20°S and deviations occur toward the outcrop regions, which we account to the low amount of remineralized material together with uncertainties in prescribed end member values. Our investigation shows how apparent variability of remineralization ratios can be generated through methodological shortcomings only.

Description: The isotopic composition of Si in biogenic silica (BSi), such as opal buried in the oceans' sediments, has changed over time. Paleorecords suggest that the isotopic composition, described in terms of δ30Si, was generally much lower during glacial times than today. There is consensus that this variability is attributable to differing environmental conditions at the respective time of BSi production and sedimentation. The detailed links between environmental conditions and the isotopic composition of BSi in the sediments remain, however, poorly constrained. In this study, we explore the effects of a suite of offset boundary conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) on the isotopic composition of BSi archived in sediments in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Our model results suggest that a change in the isotopic composition of Si supply to the glacial ocean is sufficient to explain the observed overall low(er) glacial δ30Si in BSi. All other processes explored trigger model responses of either wrong sign or magnitude or are inconsistent with a recent estimate of bottom water oxygenation in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean. Caveats, mainly associated with generic uncertainties in today's pelagic biogeochemical modules, remain.