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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state‐dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land‐ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multi‐millennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction‐based extrapolation of S for the future we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg‐CO2 divergence and find that S is less state‐dependent, or even constant (state‐independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: We introduce a new hypothesis concerning the role of internal climate dynamics in the non-linear transitions from interglacial to glacial (IG-G) state since the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT). These transitions encompass large and abrupt changes in atmospheric CO2, ice volume, and temperature that we suggest involve critical interactions between insolation and high amplitude oscillations in ocean/atmosphere circulation patterns. Specifically, we highlight the large amplitude of millennial-scale climate oscillations across the transition from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 to 4, which we argue led to amplified cooling of the deep ocean and we demonstrate that analogous episodes of extreme cooling systematically preceded glacial periods of the last 800 kyr. We suggest that such cooling necessitates a reconfiguration of the deep ocean to avoid a density paradox between northern and southern-sourced deep waters (SSW), which could be accomplished by increasing the relative volume and or salinity of SSW, thus providing the necessary storage capacity for the subsequent (delayed) and relatively abrupt drawdown of CO2. We therefore explain the transient decoupling of Antarctic temperature from CO2 across MIS 5/4 as a direct consequence of millennial activity at that time. We further show that similar climatic decoupling typically occurred during times of low obliquity and was a ubiquitous feature of IG-G transitions over the past 800 kyr, producing the appearance of bimodality in records of CO2, benthic δ18O and others. Finally we argue that the apparent lack of bimodality in the pre-MPT record of benthic δ18O implies that the dynamics associated with IG-G transitions changed across the MPT
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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