Description: Numerical Earth System Models are generic tools used to extrapolate present climate conditions into a warming future and to explore geoengineering options. Most of the current-generation models feature a simple pelagic biogeochemical model component that is embedded into a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. The dynamics of these biogeochemical model components is essentially controlled by so-called model parameters most of which are poorly known. Here we explore the feasibility to estimate these parameters in a full-fledged three-dimensional Earth System Model by minimizing the misfit to noisy observations. The focus is on parameter identifiability. Based on earlier studies, we illustrate problems in determining a unique estimate of those parameters that prescribe the limiting effect of nutrient- and light-depleted conditions on carbon assimilation by autotrophic phytoplankton. Our results showcase that for typical models and evaluation metrics no meaningful “best” unique parameter set exists. We find very different parameter sets which are, on the one hand, equally consistent with our (synthetic) historical observations while, on the other hand, they propose strikingly differing projections into a warming climate.

Description: Growing slowly, marine N2 fixers are generally expected to be competitive only where nitrogen (N) supply is low relative to that of phosphorus (P) with respect to the cellular N:P ratio (R) of non-fixing phytoplankton. This is at odds with observed high N2 fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic where the ratio of nutrients supplied to the surface is elevated in N relative to the average R (16:1). In this study, we investigate several mechanisms to solve this puzzle: iron limitation, phosphorus enhancement by preferential remineralization or stoichiometric diversity of phytoplankton, and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) utilization. Combining resource competition theory and a global coupled ecosystem-circulation model we find that the additional N and energy investments required for exo-enzymatic break-down of DOP gives N2 fixers a competitive advantage in oligotrophic P-starved regions. Accounting for this mechanism expands the ecological niche of N2-fixers also to regions where the nutrient supply is high in N relative to R, yielding, in our model, a pattern consistent with the observed high N2-fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic.

Description: On the basis of integrations of an eddy-permitting coupled physical-biological model of the tropical Pacific we explore changes in the simulated mean circulation as well as its intraseasonal to interannual variability driven by the biologically modulated vertical absorption profiles of solar radiation. Three sensitivity ocean hind-cast experiments, covering the period from 1948 to 2003, are performed. In the first one, simulated chlorophyll affects the attenuation of light in the water column, while in the second experiment, the chlorophyll concentration is kept constant in time by prescribing an empirically derived spatial pattern. The third experiment uses a spatially and temporally constant value for the attenuation depth. The biotically induced differential heating is generated by increased absorption of light in the surface layers, leading to a surface warming and subsurface cooling. The effect is largest in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, the initial vertical redistribution of heat leads to considerable changes of the near-surface ocean circulation subsequently influencing the near-surface temperature structure. In general, including biophysical coupling improves the model performance in terms of temperature and ocean circulation patterns. In particular, the upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific is enhanced, the mixed layer becomes shallower, the warm bias in the eastern Pacific is reduced, and the zonal temperature gradient increases. This leads to stronger La Niña events and an associated increase in the variability of the Niño3 SSTA time series. Furthermore, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) associated with mesoscale eddies in the eastern equatorial Pacific increases by almost 100% because of enhanced EKE production due to enhanced horizontal and vertical shear of the mean currents.

Description: The Baltic Sea is a marginal sea, located in a highly industrialized region in Central Northern Europe. Saltwater inflows from the North Sea and associated ventilation of the deep exert crucial control on the entire Baltic Sea ecosystem. This study explores the impact of anticipated sea level changes on the dynamics of those inflows. We use a numerical oceanic general circulation model covering both the Baltic and the North Sea. The model successfully retraces the essential ventilation dynamics throughout the period 1961–2007. A suite of idealized experiments suggests that rising sea level is associated with intensified ventilation as saltwater inflows become stronger, longer, and more frequent. Expressed quantitatively as a salinity increase in the deep central Baltic Sea, we find that a sea level rise of 1 m triggers a saltening of more than 1 PSU. This substantial increase in ventilation is the consequence of the increasing cross section in the Danish Straits amplified by a reduction of vertical mixing

Description: A coupled ocean biogeochemistry-circulation model is used to investigate the impact of observed past and anticipated future wind changes in the southern hemisphere on the oxygen minimum zone in the tropical Pacific. We consider the industrial period until the end of the 21st century and distinguish effects due to a strengthening of the westerlies from effects of a southward shift of the westerlies that is accompanied by a poleward expansion of the tropical trade winds. Our model results show that a strengthening of the westerlies counteracts part of the warming-induced decline in the global marine oxygen inventory. A poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary, however, triggers a significant decrease of oxygen in the tropical oxygen minimum zone. In a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, the poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary and warming-induced increase in stratification contribute equally to the expansion of suboxic waters in the tropical Pacific.

Description: Surface ocean iron (Fe) fertilization can affect the marine primary productivity (MPP), thereby impacting on CO2 exchanges at the atmosphere-ocean interface and eventually on climate. Mineral (aeolian or desert) dust is known to be a major atmospheric source for the surface ocean biogeochemical iron cycle, but the significance of volcanic ash is poorly constrained. We present the results of geochemical experiments aimed at determining the rapid release of Fe upon contact of pristine volcanic ash with seawater, mimicking their dry deposition into the surface ocean. Our data show that volcanic ash from both subduction zone and hot spot volcanoes (n = 44 samples) rapidly mobilized significant amounts of soluble Fe into seawater (35–340 nmol/g ash), with a suggested global mean of 200 ± 50 nmol Fe/g ash. These values are comparable to the range for desert dust in experiments at seawater pH (10–125 nmol Fe/g dust) presented in the literature (Guieu et al., 1996; Spokes et al., 1996). Combining our new Fe release data with the calculated ash flux from a selected major eruption into the ocean as a case study demonstrates that single volcanic eruptions have the potential to significantly increase the surface ocean Fe concentration within an ash fallout area. We also constrain the long-term (millennial-scale) airborne volcanic ash and mineral dust Fe flux into the Pacific Ocean by merging the Fe release data with geological flux estimates. These show that the input of volcanic ash into the Pacific Ocean (128–221 × 1015 g/ka) is within the same order of magnitude as the mineral dust input (39–519 × 1015 g/ka) (Mahowald et al., 2005). From the similarity in both Fe release and particle flux follows that the flux of soluble Fe related to the dry deposition of volcanic ash (3–75 × 109 mol/ka) is comparable to that of mineral dust (1–65 × 109 mol/ka). Our study therefore suggests that airborne volcanic ash is an important but hitherto underestimated atmospheric source for the Pacific surface ocean biogeochemical iron cycle.

Description: Using a global ocean model with regionally focused high resolution (1/10°) in the East China Sea (ECS), we studied the oceanic heat budget in the ECS. The modeled sea surface height variability and eddy kinetic energy are consistent with those derived from satellite altimetry. Significant levels of eddy kinetic energy are found east of the Ryukyu Islands and east of Taiwan, where the short-term variability is spawned by active mesoscale eddies coalescing with the circulation. Furthermore, the simulated vertical cross-stream structure of the Kuroshio (along the Pollution Nagasaki line) and the volume transport through each channel in the ECS are in good agreement with the observational estimates. The time-averaged temperature fluxes across the Taiwan Strait (TWS), Tsushima Strait (TSS), and the 200 m isobath between Taiwan and Japan are 0.20 PW, 0.21 PW, and 0.05 PW, respectively. The residual heat flux of 0.04 PW into the ECS is balanced by the surface heat loss. The eddy temperature flux across the 200 m isobath is 0.005 PW, which accounts for 11.2% of the total temperature flux. The Kuroshio onshore temperature flux has two major sources: the Kuroshio intrusion northeast of Taiwan and southwest of Kyushu. The Ekman temperature flux induced by the wind stress in the ECS shows the same seasonal cycle and amplitude as the onshore temperature flux, with a maximum in autumn and a minimum in summer. We conclude that the Ekman temperature flux dominates the seasonal cycle of Kuroshio onshore flux.

Description: The assumption that abiotic air-sea gas exchange is, via the temperature dependence of the gas' solubility, proportional to the surface heat flux is often used to distinguish between physically and biotically inferred oxygen fluxes across the sea surface. We quantitatively investigate its validity in the context of an eddy-permitting circulation model that contains an abiotic oxygen compartment. In the model, the “true” abiotic oxygen air-sea fluxes are systematically lower than those predicted by the air-sea heat flux relation. This discrepancy is caused by the nonlinear relationship between temperature and solubility that results in the saturation of a mixed water parcel being higher than the arithmetic mean saturation of the mixed components. This effect results in a simulated additional sea-to-air oxygen flux of about 0.5 mol O2 m−2 a−1 north of 40°N, which is not accounted for by the heat-flux relation and which is of similar magnitude as, though at the lower end of, biotically induced oxygen fluxes. Simulated outgassing of the model's abiotic oxygen is also higher than that predicted by the heat-flux relation at the equator (by ≈0.25 mol O2 m−2 a−1), where numerical artifacts endemic to state-of-the-art z level ocean models are found to affect simulated air-sea gas exchange. In addition to discrepancies in the annual mean fluxes, model results also indicate that the subtropical seasonal cycle in abiotic air-sea oxygen exchange is smaller by approximately 20% than the estimate based on air-sea heat fluxes, a result consistent with admittedly sparse observations of argon saturation.

Description: Accounting for ocean currents in the bulk parameterization of the wind stress might represent a physically more plausible way to force an ocean model than ignoring their effect. We show in this study that using the air-sea velocity difference instead of the atmospheric wind in the wind stress formulation dampens both the near-surface eddy activity and the biotic carbon assimilation in a high-resolution model of the North Atlantic. The former is significant, corresponding to a reduction down to 50% in the tropical Atlantic, while in higher latitudes (in agreement with previous results) the reduction of eddy activity is only around 10%. The effect on biotically mediated new production and air-sea carbon fluxes is, on the other hand, minor. New production is reduced by less than 5% on a basin average, while simulated air-sea CO2 fluxes are barely affected at all. The model results imply that eddy/wind interaction introduced by accounting for ocean currents in the wind stress formulation does not drive any additional (and hitherto unaccounted) nutrient fluxes to the sunlit surface of the subtropical gyre, as was recently proposed in the literature.

Description: In the subtropics, estimates of upper-ocean nitrate supply by turbulent mixing have been found insufficent to balance estimated nutrient loss through organic-matter export. Most mixing-rate estimates as well as numerical turbulence closure schemes commonly employed in numerical models have, however, neglected salt-finger induced mixing. Here we examine the potential contribution of salt-finger induced mixing to nutrient fluxes. Our model results suggest that salt-fingering instabilities generate substantial nutrient fluxes (on average 0.03 mol N m−2 yr−1) which are of similar magnitude as fluxes associated with mechanically induced turbulence or with mesoscale eddies. Because salt-fingering activity depends on the proportion of temperature versus salinity effects on stratification rather than on the stability of stratification itself, its sensitivity to climate change will differ from that of “ordinary” mixing processes and needs to be considered in the context of global change.