Beschreibung: Throughout at least the past several centuries, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a significant role in human response to climate. Over time, increased attention on ENSO has led to a better understanding of both the physical mechanisms, and the environmental and societal consequences of the phenomenon. The prospects for seasonal climate forecasting emerged from ENSO studies, and were first pursued in ENSO studies. In this paper, we review ENSO's impact on society, specifically with regard to agriculture, water, and health; we also explore the extent to which ENSO-related forecasts are used to inform decision making in these sectors. We find that there are significant differences in the uptake of forecasts across sectors, with the highest use in agriculture, intermediate use in water resources management, and the lowest in health. Forecast use is low in areas where ENSO linkages to climate are weak, but the strength of this linkage alone does not guarantee use. Moreover, the differential use of ENSO forecasts by sector shows the critical role of institutions that work at the boundary between science and society. In a long-term iterative process requiring continual maintenance, these organizations serve to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of forecasts and related climate services. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:17–34. doi: 10.1002/wcc.294.

Beschreibung: We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Beschreibung: Investigating the origin and dispersal pathways is instrumental to mitigate threats and economic and environmental consequences of invasive crop pathogens. In the case of Puccinia striiformis causing yellow rust on wheat, a number of economically important invasions have been reported, e.g., the spreading of two aggressive and high temperature adapted strains to three continents since 2000. The combination of sequence-characterized amplified region (SCAR) markers, which were developed from two specific AFLP fragments, differentiated the two invasive strains, Pst S1 and Pst S2 from all other P. striiformis strains investigated at a worldwide level. The application of the SCAR markers on 566 isolates showed that Pst S1 was present in East Africa in the early 1980s and then detected in the Americas in 2000 and in Australia in 2002. Pst S2 which evolved from PstS1 became widespread in the Middle East and Central Asia. In 2000, Pst S2 was detected in Europe, where it never became prevalent. Additional SSR genotyping and virulence phenotyping revealed 10 and six variants, respectively, within PstS1 and PstS2, demonstrating the evolutionary potential of the pathogen. Overall, the results suggested East Africa as the most plausible origin of the two invasive strains. The SCAR markers developed in the present study provide a rapid, inexpensive, and efficient tool to track the distribution of P. striiformis invasive strains, PstS1 and PstS2 . The study reports on the development and application of two strain-specific SCAR markers for tracking the distribution of invasive and high temperature adapted strains of the wheat yellow rust fungus, P. striiformis . We were also able to identify East Africa as the most likely origin of the aggressive strains. The worldwide spread and establishment of the two invasive strains is addressed in the context of epidemic outbreaks of yellow rust disease and deployment of host resistance.