Note: Intro -- Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Foreword -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Part III: Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- References -- Chapter 2: Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services in the Mediterranean Region to Climate Changes in Combination with Other Pressures -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Characterization of the Mediterranean, Its Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services -- 2.3 Projected Climatic Changes and Impacts in the Mediterranean -- 2.4 Land Use Changes -- 2.5 Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services and the Sectors They Support -- 2.6 Results from CIRCE Research Line 7 - Vulnerability Assessment -- References -- Chapter 3: Impact of Climate Variability and Extremes on the Carbon Cycle of the Mediterranean Region -- 3.1 Recent and Ongoing Changes of Mediterranean Climate Change -- 3.2 Observed Impacts of Climate Variability and Extremes on Ecosystems -- 3.3 Projected Changes of Mediterranean -- 3.4 Expected Impacts of the Projected Changes -- 3.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 4: Climate Change Impacts on Typical Mediterranean Crops and Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Cope With -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Material and Methods -- 4.2.1 Study Area: Mediterranean Basin -- 4.2.2 Climate Data -- 4.2.3 Selected Crops -- 4.2.3.1 Durum Wheat -- 4.2.3.2 Grapevine -- 4.2.3.3 Olive Tree -- 4.2.4 Model Description -- 4.2.4.1 SIRIUS Quality v.1.1 -- 4.2.4.2 Grapevine Growth Model -- 4.2.4.3 Olive Tree Ecological Model -- 4.2.5 Impact Assessment -- 4.2.6 Adaptation Strategies -- 4.3 Results -- 4.3.1 Climatic Trend -- 4.3.2 Model Calibration and Validation. , 4.3.3 Climate Change Impact in STD -- 4.3.3.1 Durum Wheat -- 4.3.3.2 Grapevine -- 4.3.3.3 Olive Tree -- 4.3.4 Adaptation Strategies -- 4.3.4.1 Durum Wheat: Advanced Sowing -- 4.3.4.2 Durum Wheat: Shorter and Longer Cycle Varieties -- 4.3.4.3 Durum Wheat: Higher Fertilization -- 4.3.4.4 Grapevine: Advanced/Delayed Bud-Break -- 4.3.4.5 Grapevine: Shorter and Longer Cycle Varieties -- 4.4 Discussions -- 4.4.1 Durum Wheat -- 4.4.2 Grapevine -- 4.4.3 Olive Tree -- 4.5 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 5: Climate Change Impacts on Forests and Forest Products in the Mediterranean Area -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Forest Resources in the Mediterranean Region -- 5.3 Forest Management in Mediterranean Forests: Features and Peculiarities -- 5.3.1 Changes in Total Forest and Other Wooded Land Area -- 5.4 Historical Trends for Main Forest Products in the Mediterranean Region -- 5.4.1 Non Wood Products and Externalities in Mediterranean Forests -- 5.5 Climate Change Impacts on Mediterranean Forests -- 5.5.1 Ecophysiology, Phenology and Productivity -- 5.5.2 Dieback, Degradation and Distribution of Forest Ecosystems -- 5.6 Effects of Future Climate on Forest Functionality and Productivity in the Mediterranean Region -- 5.7 Effects of Future Climate Scenario on the Potential and Effective Distribution of Forest Ecosystems and Tree Species -- 5.8 Responding to Climate Change: Adaptive Management for Mediterranean Forests -- 5.9 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 6: Effects of Climate and Extreme Events on Wildfire Regime and Their Ecological Impacts -- 6.1 Climate and Fire Regime During the Last Decades in the Mediterranean Area -- 6.2 Changes in Fire Regime According to Projected Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- 6.2.1 What Would Be New in the Forest Fire Regime? -- 6.3 Approaches and Methods to Identify Fire-Vulnerable Ecosystems. , 6.4 Confronting Fire Impacts in Light of Climate Change -- 6.4.1 Post-fire Restoration Techniques to Reduce Fire Risk -- 6.4.1.1 Mitigation Strategies -- Emergency Seeding -- Mulching -- 6.4.1.2 Fire Adaptation Measures -- Facing Increased Drought in Plantations -- Plant Species Selection -- Plant Quality: Nursery Cultivation -- Substrates or Growing Media -- Containers and Root Systems -- Drought Preconditioning -- 6.4.2 Landscape Dimension in Fire Prevention and Restoration -- 6.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 7: Climate Induced Effects on Livestock Population and Productivity in the Mediterranean Area -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Indirect Effects of Climate on Livestock -- 7.3 Impact of Climate Change on the Emergence of Vector-Borne Diseases - The Case of Bluetongue in the Mediterranean Basin -- 7.4 Direct Effects of Climate on Livestock -- 7.5 The Temperature Humidity Index -- 7.6 The THI Characterization of the Mediterranean Area -- 7.7 Relationships Between THI, Productivity and Health -- 7.8 Scenarios -- 7.9 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 8: Summary and Major Findings -- References -- Part IV: People -- Chapter 9: Introduction -- Chapter 10: Integrated Socio-Economic Assessment (The Economic Point of View) -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Integrated Assessment (IA) and the Climate Change Problem -- 10.3 The Role and Representation of the Social-Economic Dimension in IA -- 10.4 Economic Assessments of Climate Change Impacts for the Mediterranean Region -- 10.4.1 Sea-Level Rise -- 10.4.2 Extreme Events -- 10.4.3 Energy Demand -- 10.4.4 Health -- 10.4.5 Agriculture -- 10.4.6 Ecosystems -- 10.4.7 Tourism -- 10.4.8 Overall Assessment of Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- 10.5 The Integrated Impact Assessment Performed by CIRCE Project -- 10.6 Conclusions -- References. , Chapter 11: Water and People: Assessing Policy Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in the Mediterranean -- 11.1 How Much Does Water Management Need to Adapt in View of Climate Change? -- 11.2 Review of Impacts -- 11.2.1 The Challenges to Water Resources in Mediterranean Countries -- 11.3 A Survey of Previous Studies -- 11.4 How Able Are People to Adapt to These Changes? -- 11.4.1 Determinants of Adaptive Capacity -- 11.4.1.1 Social Capacity -- 11.4.1.2 Economic Capacity -- 11.4.1.3 Technological Eco-Efficiency -- 11.4.1.4 Natural Capital -- 11.4.1.5 Climate Capital -- 11.4.2 Computing an Adaptive Capacity Index -- 11.4.2.1 Selection of the Indicators -- 11.4.2.2 Normalization to a Common Baseline -- 11.4.2.3 Quantification of the Adaptive Capacity Index -- 11.4.2.4 Adaptive Capacity Index Distribution -- 11.4.2.5 Evaluation of Adaptive Capacity -- 11.5 Estimating How People May Modify Water Availability -- 11.5.1 Water Supply and Demand Scenarios -- 11.5.2 Defining Water Availability -- 11.5.2.1 Model Architecture -- 11.5.2.2 Example of Model Results -- 11.5.2.3 Trade-off Between Water Allocation and Supply Reliability -- 11.5.2.4 Management Policy Evaluation -- 11.5.3 Example of Application in the Ebro Basin -- 11.6 Establishing Policy Priorities -- 11.6.1 Policy Options and Thresholds -- 11.6.2 From Index Thresholds to Policy Recommendations -- 11.6.2.1 Low to Medium Water Scarcity -- 11.6.2.2 High Water Scarcity -- 11.7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 12: Adaptation Strategies for the Mediterranean -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Adaptation Implementation in the Mediterranean -- 12.2.1 Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Key Role of Development Cooperation -- 12.2.1.1 Fragmentation of Adaptation Implementation -- 12.2.1.2 Adaptation for the Poor -- 12.2.1.3 A Need for Enhanced Integration. , 12.2.2 Adaptation in Developed Countries: A Proliferation of Scattered, Top-Down Initiatives -- 12.3 The Relative Importance of Precise Climate Information -- 12.3.1 The Need for Information on Future Climate, and the Difficulties of Using It -- 12.3.1.1 A Plea for Early Action on Adaptation: Three Reasons -- 12.3.1.2 The Need for Climate Projections and the Problem of Uncertainty -- 12.3.1.3 A Theoretical Way Forward -- 12.3.2 The Minimal Use of Climate Science for Mediterranean Adaptation -- 12.3.3 A Rationale Behind the Underutilization of Precise Climate Information -- 12.3.3.1 Differential Needs for Precision in Climate Information -- 12.3.3.2 Non-climatic Drivers of Change and Related Uncertainties -- 12.3.3.3 A Need to Communicate the Best Available Science -- 12.4 Principles for the Elaboration of Adaptation Strategies -- 12.4.1 The Need for Integration -- 12.4.1.1 Climate Change and Other Drivers -- 12.4.1.2 A Two-Way Integrated Approach -- 12.4.1.3 A Wide Range of Possibilities -- 12.4.1.4 Contrasted Stakeholders' Interests -- 12.4.2 Choosing Adaptation Options -- 12.4.3 Contextualizing Best Practices and Adaptation Initiatives -- 12.4.4 Using What Already Exists -- 12.5 Conclusion -- 12.5.1 Adaptation for a Long Period of Time -- 12.5.2 An Emerging Framework of Action -- References -- Chapter 13: Health -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.1.1 Heat, Heat-Waves and Air Pollution -- 13.1.2 Infectious Diseases -- 13.1.3 Capacity Building in Assessing Health Risks -- 13.1.4 Health Adaptation Needs -- 13.1.5 Research on Climate Change and Health -- 13.2 Research on Climate Change and Health -- 13.3 Health Impact of Extreme Temperature and Air Pollution in Ten Mediterranean Cities -- 13.3.1 Data -- 13.3.2 Methods -- 13.3.3 Results and Discussion -- 13.3.3.1 High Temperature and Mortality -- 13.3.3.2 Heat Wave Episodes and Mortality. , 13.3.3.3 Joint Effects of High Temperatures and Air Pollution.

Note: A Guide to Empirical Orthogonal Functions for Climate Data Analysis -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Elements of Linear Algebra -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Elementary Vectors -- 2.3 Scalar Product -- 2.4 Linear Independence and Basis -- 2.5 Matrices -- 2.6 Rank, Singularity and Inverses -- 2.7 Decomposition of Matrices: Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors -- 2.8 The Singular Value Decomposition -- 2.9 Functions of Matrices -- 3 Basic Statistical Concepts -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Climate Datasets -- 3.3 The Sample and the Population -- 3.4 Estimating the Mean State and Variance -- 3.5 Associations Between Time Series -- 3.6 Hypothesis Testing -- 3.7 Missing Data -- 4 Empirical Orthogonal Functions -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Empirical Orthogonal Functions -- 4.3 Computing the EOFs -- 4.3.1 EOF and Variance Explained -- 4.4 Sensitivity of EOF Calculation -- 4.4.1 Normalizing the Data -- 4.4.2 Domain of Definition of the EOF -- 4.4.3 Statistical Reliability -- 4.5 Reconstruction of the Data -- 4.5.1 The Singular Value Distribution and Noise -- 4.5.2 Stopping Criterion -- 4.6 A Note on the Interpretation of EOF -- 5 Generalizations: Rotated, Complex, Extended and Combined EOF -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Rotated EOF -- 5.3 Complex EOF -- 5.4 Extended EOF -- 5.5 Many Field Problems: Combined EOF -- 6 Cross-Covariance and the Singular Value Decomposition -- 6.1 The Cross-Covariance -- 6.2 Cross-Covariance Analysis Using the SVD -- 7 The Canonical Correlation Analysis -- 7.1 The Classical Canonical Correlation Analysis -- 7.2 The Modes -- 7.3 The Barnett-Preisendorfer Canonical Correlation Analysis -- 8 Multiple Linear Regression Methods -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.1.1 A Slight Digression -- 8.2 A Practical PRO Method -- 8.2.1 A Different Scaling -- 8.2.2 The Relation Between the PRO Methodand Other Methods -- 8.3 The Forced Manifold -- 8.3.1 Significance Analysis. , 8.4 The Coupled Manifold -- References -- Index.

Note: Intro -- Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Foreword -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Box -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Part I: Case Studies -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 Background to the Mediterranean Case Studies -- 1.2 Objectives -- 1.3 The Case-Studies Integrating Framework -- 1.4 Case Studies -- 1.4.1 Introduction -- 1.4.2 Urban -- 1.4.2.1 Athens (Greece) -- 1.4.2.2 Beirut (Lebanon) -- 1.4.2.3 Alexandria (Egypt) -- 1.4.3 Rural -- 1.4.3.1 Tuscany, Italy -- 1.4.3.2 Apulia, Italy -- 1.4.3.3 Tel Hadya, Syria -- 1.4.3.4 Judean Foothills, Israel -- 1.4.4 Coastal -- 1.4.4.1 Gulf of Valencia - Catalan Coast, Spain -- 1.4.4.2 Gulf of Oran, Algeria -- 1.4.4.3 Gulf of Gabès, Tunisia -- 1.4.4.4 West Nile Delta, Egypt -- References -- Chapter 2: Stakeholders -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Level of Stakeholder Involvement -- 2.3 Objectives of Stakeholder Involvement -- 2.4 Stakeholder Contribution to the Case Studies -- 2.4.1 Conceptual Framework and Indicators -- 2.4.2 Data and Knowledge -- 2.4.3 Identification of Thresholds -- 2.4.4 Risk Assessment and Management -- 2.4.5 Adaptation Strategies -- 2.4.6 Policy Recommendations -- 2.5 Barriers to Stakeholder Participation and a Good Practice Checklist -- References -- Chapter 3: Physical and Socio-economic Indicators -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Methodology -- 3.2.1 Selection Criteria -- 3.2.2 Reviewing and Refining Indicators -- 3.2.3 Assessment for Trend, Thresholds and Coping Range -- 3.2.4 Data and Methodological Challenges -- 3.2.5 Methods of Presentation -- 3.2.6 Integrated Vulnerability Assessment -- 3.3 Climate and Atmosphere Indicators -- 3.3.1 Core Climate Indicators. , 3.3.2 Additional Case-Study Specific Climate Indicators -- 3.4 Biogeophysical Indicators -- 3.4.1 Key Themes -- 3.4.1.1 Urban Case-Study Themes -- 3.4.1.2 Rural Case-Study Themes -- 3.4.1.3 Coastal Case-Study Themes -- 3.4.2 Key Challenges -- 3.5 Social Indicators -- 3.5.1 Key Themes -- 3.5.1.1 Urban Case-Study Themes -- 3.5.1.2 Rural Case-Study Themes -- 3.5.1.3 Coastal Case-Study Themes -- 3.5.2 Key Challenges -- References -- Chapter 4: Climate Impact Assessments -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Urban -- 4.2.1 Climate Related Impacts -- 4.2.2 Climate Hazards -- 4.2.3 Biogeophysical and Social Vulnerabilities -- 4.3 Rural -- 4.3.1 Climate Related Impacts -- 4.3.2 Climate Hazards -- 4.3.3 Biogeophysical and Social Vulnerabilities -- 4.4 Coastal -- 4.4.1 Climate Related Impacts -- 4.4.2 Climate Hazards -- 4.4.3 Biogeophysical and Social Vulnerabilities -- References -- Chapter 5: Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Climate Projections -- 5.3 Biogeophysical and Socioeconomic Projections -- 5.3.1 Introduction -- 5.3.2 Key Messages on Mediterranean Changes in Biogeophysical and Socioeconomic Systems from the CIRCE Project -- 5.3.2.1 Water Resources -- 5.3.2.2 Mediterranean Agriculture, Forest and Ecosystem Services -- 5.3.2.3 Mediterranean Communities -- Economic Impacts -- Human Health and Well Being -- Energy -- Mediterranean Tourism -- 5.3.3 Specific Examples from the CIRCE Case Studies -- 5.3.3.1 Athens Urban Case Study -- Peri-Urban Fires -- Air-Pollution -- Human Health Risks -- Energy Demand -- 5.3.3.2 Gulf of Gabès Coastal Case Study -- 5.3.4 Summary and Discussion of Key Projected Changes -- 5.3.4.1 Future Changes in Biogeophysical Systems -- 5.3.4.2 Future Changes in Social Systems and Communities -- 5.3.4.3 Linking Vulnerabilities and Impacts -- 5.4 Assessment Uncertainties -- References. , Chapter 6: Synthesis and the Assessment of Adaptation Measures -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Linking Impacts and Vulnerability with Adaptation -- 6.2.1 Indicators, Thresholds, Coping Range and Adaptation -- 6.2.2 Vulnerability, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity -- 6.3 Adaptation Measures at Local and Regional Scales -- 6.3.1 The CIRCE Stakeholder Perspective on Adaptation -- 6.3.1.1 Athens Case Study Workshop -- 6.3.1.2 Beirut Case-Study Dialogue -- 6.3.1.3 Tuscany Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.4 Apulia Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.5 The Judean Foothills Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.6 The Tel Hadya Case-Study Seminars -- 6.3.1.7 Alexandria and West Nile Delta Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.8 Gulf of Gabès Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.1.9 Gulf of Oran Meetings with Scientists, Civil Society and Decision Makers -- 6.3.1.10 Gulf of Valencia-Catalan Case-Study Stakeholder Workshop -- 6.3.2 Consolidating the Case-Study Information on Adaptation -- 6.3.2.1 Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystems -- 6.3.2.2 Mediterranean Communities -- 6.3.2.3 Integrating Adaptation Options Across Scales and Sectors -- 6.4 Moving Beyond the Case Studies -- 6.4.1 Changes, Impacts and Events Outside the Case-Study Regions -- 6.4.1.1 Supply and Demand Issues (for Energy, Water, Food) -- 6.4.1.2 Global Effects on Regional Tourism -- 6.4.1.3 Migration -- 6.4.1.4 Governance Issues -- 6.4.2 Adaptation Policy -- 6.5 Conclusions: Lessons Learnt and Key Messages from the CIRCE Case Studies -- 6.6 Research Needs and Gaps -- References -- Chapter 7: Executive Summary -- Appendices -- Appendix 1: The CIRCE Case-Study Abbreviations -- Appendix 2: Key Case-Study Indicators -- Index.

Note: Intro -- Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Foreword -- CIRCE - Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Part I: Air, Sea and Precipitation -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- References -- Chapter 2: Past and Current Climate Changes in the Mediterranean Region -- 2.1 Atmosphere -- 2.1.1 Mediterranean Climatological Data: Station Observations and Gridded Time Series -- 2.1.1.1 Observational Station Data -- 2.1.1.2 Gridded Datasets -- 2.1.2 Quality Control and Homogenization of Station Time Series -- 2.1.3 The Mediterranean Climate - Present Knowledge -- 2.1.4 Mediterranean Climate Change in the Instrumental Period -- 2.1.5 Links Between Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Mediterranean Climate -- 2.1.6 Analysis of Climate Variations from the Pre-instrumental Period to the Past Half Millennium Using Climate Proxies -- 2.2 Ocean -- 2.2.1 General Structure of the Mediterranean Circulation -- 2.2.2 Sea Level Changes -- 2.2.3 Changes in Surface Circulation -- 2.2.4 Changes in Water Mass Characteristics -- 2.2.5 Changes in Ocean-Atmosphere Fluxes -- 2.3 Extremes in the Mediterranean Region During the Last Decades -- 2.3.1 Introduction -- 2.3.2 Extreme Temperature -- 2.3.3 Extreme Precipitation -- 2.3.4 Droughts -- 2.3.5 Extreme Ocean Wave Conditions -- 2.3.6 Extreme Sea Levels -- 2.3.7 Cyclones and Wind Storms -- 2.3.8 Cut-Off-Lows -- 2.4 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 3: Future Climate Projections -- 3.1 The CIRCE Models and Simulations -- 3.1.1 Introduction -- 3.1.2 The CIRCE Models -- 3.1.3 Mediterranean Sea Modeling Components of the CIRCE Models -- 3.1.4 Data and Model Simulations -- 3.2 Atmosphere. , 3.2.1 Simulations of the Mediterranean Climate and Future Projections -- 3.3 Ocean -- 3.3.1 Air-Sea Fluxes Evolution -- 3.3.2 Mediterranean Sea Surface Characteristics: SSS, SST -- 3.3.3 Mediterranean Sea Level Change -- 3.3.4 Evolution of the Gibraltar Strait Transport -- 3.3.5 Results in the Ocean-Alone INSTM Model -- 3.4 Extremes -- 3.4.1 Introduction -- 3.4.2 Definitions of Extreme Events -- 3.4.3 Projected Changes in Extreme Events -- 3.4.3.1 Extreme Temperatures -- 3.4.3.2 Extreme Precipitation -- 3.4.3.3 Cyclones and Wind-Storms -- 3.4.3.4 Extreme Ocean Conditions -- 3.4.3.5 Cut-Off Lows -- 3.5 An Assessment of the Uncertainties in the CIRCE Models Outputs -- 3.5.1 The Sources of Uncertainty in Coupled Climate Models -- 3.5.1.1 The Uncertainty Issue -- 3.5.1.2 The DEMETER, PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES Experiments -- 3.5.2 An ENSEMBLES Approach for the Mediterranean Area -- 3.5.3 An Uncertainty Assessment of CIRCE Scenarios in the Mediterranean Area -- 3.6 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 4: Mechanisms of Climate Variability, Air Quality and Impacts of Atmospheric Constituents in the Mediterranean Region -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Teleconnection and Local Circulation Patterns -- 4.3 Regional Patterns and Variability -- 4.4 Transport Paths of Air Pollution -- 4.4.1 Eastern Mediterranean Region -- 4.4.2 Western Mediterranean Region -- 4.4.3 Entire Mediterranean Region -- 4.5 Air Quality and Regional Climate -- 4.5.1 Black and Organic Carbon -- 4.5.2 Ozone -- 4.5.3 Aerosols -- 4.5.3.1 PM Levels -- 4.5.3.2 Dust Contribution to PM Levels and Spatio-Temporal Characteristics -- 4.5.3.3 PM Speciation -- 4.5.3.4 Aerosol Optical Properties -- 4.6 Climate Impacts -- 4.6.1 Direct Effects -- 4.6.2 Indirect Effects -- 4.7 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 5: Detection and Attribution -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Data -- 5.3 Methods. , 5.3.1 The "Regularized Optimal Fingerprint" -- 5.3.2 The "Temporal Optimal Detection" -- 5.3.3 The 'Consistency' Method -- 5.4 Temperature Change -- 5.4.1 Formal Detection -- 5.4.1.1 Annual Mean -- 5.4.1.2 Seasonal Means -- 5.4.2 Consistency Analysis -- 5.4.2.1 Is the Observed Warming Due to Natural (Internal) Variability Alone? -- 5.4.2.2 Is GS-Forcing a Plausible Explanation of the Observed Warming? -- 5.4.2.3 Is the Observed Change a Plausible Illustration of Future Expected Changes? -- 5.5 Precipitation Change -- 5.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 6: Summary and Major Findings -- Part II: Water -- Chapter 7: Introduction -- 7.1 Overview of Water Resources in Mediterranean Area -- 7.2 Research Questions on Bordering Scales of Investigation -- 7.3 Bridge the Scale Gaps Between Climate Models and Hydrological System Models -- References -- Chapter 8: The Hydrological Cycle of the Mediterranean -- 8.1 Long-Term Changes in Mediterranean Sea Water Cycle: Observed and Projected -- 8.1.1 Introduction -- 8.1.2 Simulated and Projected Mediterranean Water Cycle Changes -- 8.1.3 Observed Twentieth Century Changes -- 8.2 Evaluation of Atmospheric Moisture Budget for the Recent Climate Based on Super High-Resolution MRI Model -- 8.2.1 Introduction -- 8.2.2 Data and Methodology -- 8.2.2.1 The Super-High Resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) -- 8.2.2.2 The River Model -- 8.2.2.3 Study Area and Season -- 8.2.3 Results and Discussions -- 8.2.3.1 Seasonal Moisture Fields Changes over the Large Domain -- 8.2.3.2 Changes of Monthly Running Means of E, P and P-E Over the Mediterranean -- 8.2.3.3 Comparing West and East Mediterranean -- 8.2.3.4 Change of River Discharge over Mediterranean Region -- 8.2.4 Summary -- 8.3 Multi-model Changes in Evapotranspiration, Precipitation and Renewable Water Resources -- 8.3.1 Introduction -- 8.3.2 Models and Methods. , 8.3.3 Spatial Changes in Precipitation and Evapotranspiration -- 8.3.4 Hydrological Controls on Water Resource -- 8.3.5 Summary -- 8.4 Final Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 9: Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Bodies: Quantitative Aspects -- 9.1 General Features of Mediterranean Hydrology -- 9.1.1 Introduction -- 9.1.2 Hydrological Signatures -- 9.2 Regional Projections of River Discharge in the Mediterranean Catchment -- 9.2.1 Introduction -- 9.2.2 River Discharge Evaluation: The IRIS Tool -- 9.2.3 Results -- 9.3 From Regional Climate Simulations to the Hydrological Information Needed for Basin Scale Impact Studies -- 9.3.1 Introduction -- 9.3.2 A Scheme for the Investigation of Climate Change Impacts on Eco-hydrological Processes and Freshwater Bodies -- 9.3.3 Postprocessing of Climate Model Output for Eco-hydrological Applications: Main Variables and Correction Problems -- 9.3.4 Example Application to the Water Resources Assessment in the Apulia Region -- 9.3.4.1 The Impact Model -- 9.3.4.2 Downscaling of Meteorological Forcing -- 9.3.4.3 Model Results and Regional Water Balance Projections for the Twenty-First Century -- 9.3.5 Climate Change and Groundwater: An Impact Study on a Carbonate Aquifer in Southern Italy -- 9.3.5.1 Study Area -- 9.3.5.2 Development of a Conceptual Model of Spring Discharge -- 9.3.5.3 Hydrological Model Calibration and Validation -- 9.3.5.4 Approach to Climate Change Impact Evaluation -- 9.3.5.5 Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Spring Regime -- 9.3.5.6 Discussion -- 9.4 The Role of Dams in Reducing the Impacts of Climate Change -- 9.4.1 Introduction -- 9.4.2 An Experience in a Small Greek Catchment -- 9.4.2.1 Assessment of Optimal Dam Dimensioning Under Climate Change -- 9.4.2.2 Results -- 9.4.3 Analysis of Supply and Demand Imbalances After Supply Side Adaptation -- 9.5 Conclusions -- References. , Chapter 10: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality -- 10.1 Impact on Lake Thermal Structure and Ecological Consequences -- 10.1.1 Introduction -- 10.1.1.1 Global Importance of Lakes as Valuable Fresh Water Resource -- 10.1.1.2 Lakes and Global Change: Passive and Active Role -- 10.1.2 The CIRCE Approach to the Climate Change Impact on Lakes -- 10.1.2.1 Study Sites -- 10.1.2.2 Diagnostic Tools -- 10.1.3 Impact of Global Warming on Two Italian South Alpine Lakes -- 10.1.3.1 Downscaling of Meteorological Forcing -- 10.1.3.2 Past, Present and Future Projections of Lake Thermal Structure -- 10.1.4 Ecological Implications of Lake Warming -- 10.2 Nutrient Loads: Simulations of River Catchments -- 10.2.1 Introduction -- 10.2.2 Data and Methodology -- 10.2.3 PCE and Scenarios Implementation -- 10.2.4 Results and Discussion -- 10.2.5 Final Remarks -- 10.3 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 11: Summary and Major Findings -- Index.