GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • 2020-2024  (2)
Document type
Language
Years
Year
  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of meteorological variables (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: We propose an analytical expression describing the probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of selected meteorological variables. Our study is based on the available lists of recorded tornadoes events in the USA and Europe matched with the meteorological conditions provided by the high resolution ERA5 reanalysis data. The statistical validation of the results has been carried out using Bootstrap techniques and Monte Carlo permutation procedures. The considered variables are the convective available potential energy, the vertical wind shear, the storm-relative helicity, and the lifting condensation level. Our analysis suggests that the most suitable representation for the probability of occurrence of tornadoes is a bivariate exponential-like expression as a function of the convective available potential energy and either the wind shear or the storm relative helicity. This expression allows to compute the probability of tornado occurrence using data extracted from operational weather prediction and available climate projections, thus compensating for the lack of resolution needed to explicitly model tornadoes in these simulations. The proposed methodological approach can be used to obtaining formula of increasing accuracy as larger datasets of tornado events will become progressively available in the future.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    GFZ OAI
  • 2
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Changing mechanisms of the atmospheric moisture budget in the Mediterranean region from the last glacial maximum to future projections (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: Model simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) and RCP8.5 projections suggest that factors responsible for past and future changes in the Mediterranean region are different. The wet LGM conditions were determined mainly by low evaporation, with some increase of precipitation in the western areas, while dry rcp8.5 conditions will be driven by a reduction of precipitation over the whole region. These changes were caused by atmospheric dynamics (changes of mean atmospheric circulation ) in LGM and it will be caused by the atmospheric thermodynamics (reduction of mean moisture content ) in the future rcp8.5. In both cases, the Mediterranean region appears to be more sensitive to climate change than the rest of areas within the same latitudinal range, particularly considering the hydrological cycle, whose characteristics in winter exhibit large changes between these two different climates. These conclusions emerge from the substantial consensus among six PMIP3 and CMIP5 models, simulating LGM, pre-Industrial and rcp8.5 climate conditions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    GFZ OAI
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...