Beschreibung: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Beschreibung: Since 2001, current velocities have been measured continuously as part of a multilateral collaboration, the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), that regularly services a moored observatory located at 0°N, 23°W. Here, we present an update of 20 years of full-depth current velocity observations at 0°N, 23°W. With the presented current velocity data product, we aim to provide an important and accessible reference data set against which models and reanalysis output could be validated. The velocity time series will also be helpful for studies focusing on long-term climate variability to search for connections with changes in the equatorial circulation over the last 20 years. Earlier versions of this data product have already been used in a variety of studies and provided a significant contribution to an overall improved understanding of equatorial ocean dynamics. The moored observatory at 0°N, 23°W is an ongoing example of a successful multinational collaboration extending over more than two decades.

Beschreibung: Since 2001, current velocities have been measured continuously as part of a multilateral collaboration, the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), that regularly services a moored observatory located at 0°N, 23°W. Here, we present 20 years of full-depth current velocity observations at 0°N, 23°W. With the presented current velocity data product, we aim to provide an important and accessible reference data set against which models and reanalysis output could be validated. The velocity time series will also be helpful for studies focusing on long-term climate variability to search for connections with changes in the equatorial circulation over the last 20 years. Earlier versions of this data product have already been used in a variety of studies and provided a significant contribution to an overall improved understanding of equatorial ocean dynamics. The moored observatory at 0°N, 23°W is an ongoing example of a successful multinational collaboration extending over more than two decades.