Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Li, F., Lozier, M. S., Bacon, S., Bower, A. S., Cunningham, S. A., de Jong, M. F., DeYoung, B., Fraser, N., Fried, N., Han, G., Holliday, N. P., Holte, J., Houpert, L., Inall, M. E., Johns, W. E., Jones, S., Johnson, C., Karstensen, J., Le Bras, I. A., P. Lherminier, X. Lin, H. Mercier, M. Oltmanns, A. Pacini, T. Petit, R. S. Pickart, D. Rayner, F. Straneo, V. Thierry, M. Visbeck, I. Yashayaev & Zhou, C. Subpolar North Atlantic western boundary density anomalies and the Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nature Communications, 12(1), (2021): 3002, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23350-2.

Description: Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which have the potential to drive societally-important climate impacts, have traditionally been linked to the strength of deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic. Yet there is neither clear observational evidence nor agreement among models about how changes in deep water formation influence overturning. Here, we use data from a trans-basin mooring array (OSNAP—Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) to show that winter convection during 2014–2018 in the interior basin had minimal impact on density changes in the deep western boundary currents in the subpolar basins. Contrary to previous modeling studies, we find no discernable relationship between western boundary changes and subpolar overturning variability over the observational time scales. Our results require a reconsideration of the notion of deep western boundary changes representing overturning characteristics, with implications for constraining the source of overturning variability within and downstream of the subpolar region.

Description: We acknowledge funding from the Physical Oceanography Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (OCE-1259398, OCE-1756231, OCE-1948335); the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) National Capability programs the Extended Ellett Line and CLASS (NE/R015953/1), and NERC grants UK-OSNAP (NE/K010875/1, NE/K010875/2, NE/K010700/1) and U.K. OSNAP Decade (NE/T00858X/1, NE/T008938/1). Additional support was received from the European Union 7th Framework Program (FP7 2007-2013) under grant 308299 (NACLIM), the Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 727852 (Blue-Action), 862626 (EuroSea). We also acknowledge support from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography-Canada (SWOT-C), Canadian Space Agency, the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program (ACCASP), Fisheries and Oceans Canada, an Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant, and from the China’s national key research and development projects (2016YFA0601803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925025) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (201424001). Support for the 53°N array by the RACE program of the German Ministry BMBF is acknowledged, as is the contribution from Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program.

Description: Die Meeresströmungen im Atlantik spielen für unser Klima eine wichtige Rolle. Klimamodelle zeigen, dass bei weiter steigenden Treibhausgas-Emissionen die Stärke der Strömungen abnimmt und sich ihr Verlauf ändert. Dies hat weitreichende Folgen für die regionale Erwärmung, Niederschläge, Meeresspiegel, Landwirtschaft und Fischerei auch in Deutschland. Deshalb haben die führenden deutschen Meeresforschungsinstitute Langzeitbeobachtungen der Meeresströmungen an Schlüsselstellen im Atlantik installiert. Durch sie kennen wir nun die Strömungsstärken und ihre Schwankungen über Zeiträume von Stunden bis Jahrzehnte und können Klimatrends frühzeitig erkennen. Die Messungen haben auch gezeigt, dass selbst in den aktuellsten Klimamodellen noch immer große Unterschiede zwischen den simulierten und den beobachteten Strömungen bestehen und auch die vorhersagte Abschwächung der Strömungen bis ins Jahr 2100 in den Modellen unterschiedlich ausfällt. Um die Ergebnisse der Klimamodelle auch in Zukunft durch Beobachtungen bewerten zu können, müssen die Langzeitbeobachtungen der Atlantikzirkulation aufrechterhalten werden. Diese Broschüre knüpft an die bereits erschienenen Bände „Zukunft der Golfstromzirkulation“ (2016) und „Zukunft der Meeresspiegel“ (2019) an, in die ebenfalls Resultate aus den Langzeit-Beobachtungssystemen eingeflossen sind.

Description: The oceans' role in climate and climate change is manifold. The Ocean circulation transports large amounts of heat and freshwater on hemispheric space scales which have significant impacts on regional climate in the ocean itself but also noticeable consequences via atmospheric teleconnections on land. Due to the high heat capacity of seawater and the relatively slow ocean circulation, the oceans provide a significant “memory” for the climate system. Bodies of water that descend from the sea surface may reside in the ocean interior for decades and centuries, while preserving their temperature and salinity signature, before they surface again to interact with the overlying atmosphere. The residence time of water in the atmosphere is about ten days and the persistence of dynamical states of the atmospheric circulation may last up to a few weeks. Thus, on long time scales ocean dynamics becomes important for climate, which implies that climate variations and climate change can only partially be understood without consideration of ocean dynamics and the intricate ocean-atmosphere interaction. Since 1960 the heat uptake of the oceans has been 20 times larger than that of the atmosphere. Thus the oceans have been able to reduce the otherwise much more pronounced temperature rise in the atmospheric climate. Also, over the last 200 years the oceans have absorbed about half of the CO2 release into the atmosphere by human activities (fossil fuel combustion, de-forestation, cement production), thereby reducing the direct effect of greenhouse gases on atmospheric temperatures.This chapter aims to describe and explain fundamental principles of the ocean dynamics and gathers information about past, present and future states the world’s ocean and its role in climate change.

Description: The distribution of passively drifting particles within highly turbulent flows is a classic problem in marine sciences. The use of trajectory clustering on huge amounts of simulated marine trajectory data to identify main pathways of drifting particles has not been widely investigated from a data science perspective yet. In this paper, we propose a fast and computationally light method to efficiently identify main pathways in large amounts of trajectory data. It aims at overcoming some of the issues of probabilistic maps and existing trajectory clustering approaches. Our approach is evaluated against simulated larvae dispersion data based on a real-world model that have been produced as part of work in the marine science domain.

Description: 3rd Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative