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  • 1
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    Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼ 3 million years ago (2020)
    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(4), pp. 1599-1615, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3°C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4°C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
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    The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations (2021)
    COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 17(3), pp. 1065-1089, ISSN: 1814-9324
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    DeepMIP: Model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data (2021)
    COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 17(1), pp. 203-227, ISSN: 1814-9324
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records (2013)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 41 (2013): 1291-1306, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1483-0.
    Description: High-resolution sedimentary paleoclimate proxy records offer the potential to expand the detection and analysis of decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability during recent millennia, particularly within regions where traditional high-resolution proxies may be short, sparse, or absent. However, time uncertainty in these records potentially limits a straightforward objective identification of broad-scale patterns of climate variability. Here, we describe a procedure for identifying common patterns of spatiotemporal variability from time uncertain sedimentary records. This approach, which we term Monte Carlo Empirical Orthogonal Function (MCEOF) analysis, uses iterative age modeling and eigendecomposition of proxy time series to isolate common regional patterns and estimate uncertainties. As a test case, we apply this procedure to a diverse set of time-uncertain lacustrine proxy records from East Africa. We also perform a pseudoproxy experiment using climate model output to examine the ability of the method to extract shared anomalies given known signals. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of our approach, including possible extensions of the technique.
    Description: JET acknowledges the UCAR Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship for support.
    Description: 2014-08-26
    Keywords: Paleoclimate ; Africa ; Empirical orthogonal functions ; Monte Carlo ; Uncertainty ; Geochronology
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    Coordinated hydrological regimes in the Indo-Pacific region during the past two millennia (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 25 (2010): PA1102, doi:10.1029/2009PA001871.
    Description: Instrumental data suggest that major shifts in tropical Pacific atmospheric dynamics and hydrology have occurred within the past century, potentially in response to anthropogenic warming. To better understand these trends, we use the hydrogen isotopic ratios of terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes (δDwax) in marine sediments from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compile a detailed reconstruction of central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability spanning most of the last two millennia. Our paleodata are highly correlated with a monsoon reconstruction from Southeast Asia, indicating that intervals of strong East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) activity are associated with a weaker Indonesian monsoon (IM). Furthermore, the centennial-scale oscillations in our data follow known changes in Northern Hemisphere climate (e.g., the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period) implying a dynamic link between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and IPWP hydrology. The inverse relationship between the EASM and IM suggests that migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated changes in monsoon strength caused synoptic hydrologic shifts in the IPWP throughout most of the past two millennia.
    Description: This research was supported by the U.S. NSF, the Ocean and Climate Change Institute at WHOI, and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship to J. Tierney.
    Keywords: Tropical Pacific climate ; Compound-specific hydrogen isotopes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/postscript
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: text/plain
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  • 6
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    The influence of Indian Ocean atmospheric circulation on Warm Pool hydroclimate during the Holocene epoch (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012): D19108, doi:10.1029/2012JD018060.
    Description: Existing paleoclimate data suggest a complex evolution of hydroclimate within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Holocene epoch. Here we introduce a new leaf wax isotope record from Sulawesi, Indonesia and compare proxy water isotope data with ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations to identify mechanisms influencing Holocene IPWP hydroclimate. Modeling simulations suggest that orbital forcing causes heterogenous changes in precipitation across the IPWP on a seasonal basis that may account for the differences in time-evolution of the proxy data at respective sites. Both the proxies and simulations suggest that precipitation variability during the September–November (SON) season is important for hydroclimate in Borneo. The preëminence of the SON season suggests that a seasonally lagged relationship between the Indian
    Description: J. Tierney acknowledges the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship for support.
    Description: 2013-04-04
    Keywords: Holocene climate ; Indian monsoon ; Indo-Pacific warm pool ; Leaf waxes ; Stable isotopes ; Walker circulation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
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    The effect of sea level on glacial Indo-Pacific climate (2013)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature Geoscience 6 (2013): 485–491, doi:10.1038/ngeo1823.
    Description: The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool – the Earth’s largest body of warm water and main source of heat and moisture to the global atmosphere – plays a prominent role in tropical and global climate change. The physical mechanisms driving changes in the warm pool over glacial-interglacial timescales are largely unknown. Here we show that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) changes in global sea level influenced tropical climate by exposing the Sunda Shelf and altering the Walker Circulation. Our result is based on a synthesis of marine and terrestrial proxies sensitive to hydroclimate and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. The proxy data suggest drying throughout the warm pool, and wetter conditions in the western Indian and Pacific oceans. Only one model out of twelve simulates a similar pattern of hydroclimate change, as measured by the Cohen’s statistic. According to this model, weakened convection over the warm pool in response to exposure of the Sunda Shelf drives the proxy-inferred hydrological changes. Our study demonstrates that on glacial-interglacial timescales, ice sheets exert a first order influence on tropical climate through changes in global sea level.
    Description: Funding for this work was provided by NSF (grant AGS 1204011) and the University of Hawaii.
    Description: 2013-11-19
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 8
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    The PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  (Submitted) Climate of the Past .
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-04-09
    Description: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21,000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models have been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the PMIP4-CMIP6 are globally less cold and less dry than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, most probably because of the use of a more realistic specification of the northern hemisphere ice sheets in the latest simulations although changes in model configuration may also contribute to this. There are important differences in both atmospheric and ocean circulation between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large so, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land-sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the palaeoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. The spatial patterns of increased precipitation associated with changes in the jet streams are also poorly captured. However, changes in the tropics are more realistic, particularly the changes in tropical temperatures over the oceans. Although these results are preliminary in nature, because of the limited number of LGM simulations currently available, they nevertheless point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/cp-2019-169
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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