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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
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    Evidence of local sea surface temperatures overriding the southeast Australian rainfall response to the 1997–1998 El Niño
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2015
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 42, No. 21 ( 2015-11-16), p. 9449-9456
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 42, No. 21 ( 2015-11-16), p. 9449-9456
    Kurzfassung: Australian rainfall response to El Niño modulated by local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) Lack of Australian rainfall deficit during 1997 El Niño illustrates this modulation Stochastic atmospheric processes alone cannot explain 1997 rainfall but can modify SST influence
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/grl.v42.21
    DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066319
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publikationsdatum: 2015
    ZDB Id: 2021599-X
    ZDB Id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
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    Severe heat waves in Southern Australia: synoptic climatology and large scale connections
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2012
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 38, No. 1-2 ( 2012-1), p. 209-224
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 38, No. 1-2 ( 2012-1), p. 209-224
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1016-2
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publikationsdatum: 2012
    ZDB Id: 382992-3
    ZDB Id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
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    Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Associated with Southern Australian Heat Waves: A CMIP5 Analysis
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 20 ( 2014-10-15), p. 7807-7829
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 20 ( 2014-10-15), p. 7807-7829
    Kurzfassung: Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves are examined using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Accompanying work analyzing modeled heat wave statistics for Australia finds substantial increases in the frequency, duration, and temperature of heat waves by the end of the twenty-first century. This study assesses the ability of CMIP5 models to simulate the synoptic and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves, and examines how the classical atmospheric setup associated with heat waves is projected to change in response to mean-state warming. To achieve this, near-surface temperature, mean sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature (SST) from the historical and high-emission simulations are analyzed. CMIP5 models are found to represent the synoptic setup associated with heat waves well, despite showing greater variation in simulating SST anomalies. The models project a weakening of the pressure couplet associated with future southern Australian heat waves, suggesting that even a non-classical synoptic setup is able to generate more frequent heat waves in a warmer world. A future poleward shift and strengthening of heat wave–inducing anticyclones is confirmed using a tracking scheme applied to model projections. Model consensus implies that while anticyclones associated with the hottest future southern Australian heat waves will be more intense and originate farther poleward, a greater proportion of heat waves occur in association with a weaker synoptic setup that, when combined with warmer mean-state temperatures, gives rise to more future heat waves.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2014
    ZDB Id: 246750-1
    ZDB Id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
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    Asymmetry in ENSO Teleconnection with Regional Rainfall, Its Multidecadal Variability, and Impact
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 18 ( 2010-09-15), p. 4944-4955
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 18 ( 2010-09-15), p. 4944-4955
    Kurzfassung: An asymmetry, and its multidecadal variability, in a rainfall teleconnection with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described. Further, the breakdown of this relationship since 1980 is offered as a cause for a rainfall reduction in an ENSO-affected region, southeast Queensland (SEQ). There, austral summer rainfall has been declining since around the 1980s, but the associated process is not understood. It is demonstrated that the rainfall reduction is not simulated by the majority of current climate models forced with anthropogenic forcing factors. Examination shows that ENSO is a rainfall-generating mechanism for the region because of an asymmetry in its impact: the La Niña–rainfall relationship is statistically significant, as SEQ summer rainfall increases with La Niña amplitude; by contrast, the El Niño–induced rainfall reductions do not have a statistically significant relationship with El Niño amplitude. Since 1980, this asymmetry no longer operates, and La Niña events no longer induce a rainfall increase, leading to the observed SEQ rainfall reduction. A similar asymmetric rainfall teleconnection with ENSO Modoki exists and shares the same temporal evolutions. This breakdown is caused by an eastward shift in the Walker circulation and the convection center near Australia’s east coast, in association with a post-1980 positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Such a breakdown occurred before 1950, indicating that multidecadal variability alone could potentially be responsible for the recent SEQ rainfall decline. An aggregation of outputs from climate models to distill the impact of climate change suggests that the asymmetry and the breakdown may not be generated by climate change, although most models do not perform well in simulating the ENSO–rainfall teleconnection over the SEQ region.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2010
    ZDB Id: 246750-1
    ZDB Id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
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    Teleconnection Pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian Rainfall
    American Meteorological Society ; 2011
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 24, No. 15 ( 2011-08-01), p. 3910-3923
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 15 ( 2011-08-01), p. 3910-3923
    Kurzfassung: Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall are diagnosed from the perspective of tropical and extratropical teleconnections triggered by tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The tropical teleconnection is understood as the equatorially trapped, deep baroclinic response to the diabatic (convective) heating anomalies induced by the tropical SST anomalies. These diabatic heating anomalies also excite equivalent barotropic Rossby wave trains that propagate into the extratropics. The main direct tropical teleconnection during ENSO is the Southern Oscillation (SO), whose impact on Australian rainfall is argued to be mainly confined to near-tropical portions of eastern Australia. Rainfall is suppressed during El Niño because near-tropical eastern Australia directly experiences subsidence and higher surface pressure associated with the western pole of the SO. Impacts on extratropical Australian rainfall during El Niño are argued to stem primarily from the Rossby wave trains forced by convective variations in the Indian Ocean, for which the IOD is a primary source of variability. These equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave trains emanating from the Indian Ocean induce changes to the midlatitude westerlies across southern Australia, thereby affecting rainfall through changes in mean-state baroclinicity, west–east steering, and possibly orographic effects. Although the IOD does not mature until austral spring, its impact on Australian rainfall during winter is also ascribed to this mechanism. Because ENSO is largely unrelated to the IOD during austral winter, there is limited impact of ENSO on rainfall across southern latitudes of Australia in winter. A strong impact of ENSO on southern Australia rainfall in spring is ascribed to the strong covariation of ENSO and the IOD in this season. Implications of this pathway from the tropical Indian Ocean for impacts of both the IOD and ENSO on southern Australian climate are discussed with regard to the ability to make seasonal climate predictions and with regard to the role of trends in tropical SST for driving trends in Australian climate.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2011
    ZDB Id: 246750-1
    ZDB Id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
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    Indo-Pacific–Induced Wave Trains during Austral Autumn and Their Effect on Australian Rainfall
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 9 ( 2014-05-01), p. 3208-3221
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 9 ( 2014-05-01), p. 3208-3221
    Kurzfassung: During austral winter and spring, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), individually or in combination, induce equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave trains, affecting midlatitude Australian rainfall. In autumn, ENSO is at its annual minimum, and the IOD has usually not developed. However, there is still a strong equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave train associated with tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, with a pressure anomaly to the south of Australia. This wave train is similar in position, but opposite in sign, to the IOD-induced wave train in winter and spring and has little effect on Australian rainfall. This study shows that the SST in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) displays a high variance during austral autumn, with a strong influence on southeast and eastern Australian rainfall. However, this influence is slightly weaker than that associated with SST to the north of Australia, which shares fluctuations with SST in the SETIO region. The SST north of Australia is coherent with a convective dipole in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is the source of a wave train to the east of Australia influencing rainfall in eastern Australia. ENSO Modoki is a contributor to the convective dipole and as a result it exerts a weak influence on eastern Australian rainfall through the connecting north Australian SST relationship. Thus, SST to the north of Australia acts as the main agent for delivering the impact of tropical Indo-Pacific variability to eastern Australia.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00611.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2014
    ZDB Id: 246750-1
    ZDB Id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
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    Did Climate Change–Induced Rainfall Trends Contribute to the Australian Millennium Drought?
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 9 ( 2014-05-01), p. 3145-3168
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 9 ( 2014-05-01), p. 3145-3168
    Kurzfassung: The Australian decade-long “Millennium Drought” broke in the summer of 2010/11 and was considered the most severe drought since instrumental records began in the 1900s. A crucial question is whether climate change played a role in inducing the rainfall deficit. The climate modes in question include the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), affecting southern Australia in winter and spring; the southern annular mode (SAM) with an opposing influence on southern Australia in winter to that in spring; and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, affecting northern and eastern Australia in most seasons and southeastern Australia in spring through its coherence with the IOD. Furthermore, the poleward edge of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell, which indicates the position of the subtropical dry zone, has possible implications for recent rainfall declines in autumn. Using observations and simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), it is shown that the drought over southwest Western Australia is partly attributable to a long-term upward SAM trend, which contributed to half of the winter rainfall reduction in this region. For southeast Australia, models simulate weak trends in the pertinent climate modes. In particular, they severely underestimate the observed poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone and associated impacts. Thus, although climate models generally suggest that Australia’s Millennium Drought was mostly due to multidecadal variability, some late-twentieth-century changes in climate modes that influence regional rainfall are partially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse warming.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2014
    ZDB Id: 246750-1
    ZDB Id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
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    The Association of Tropical and Extratropical Climate Modes to Atmospheric Blocking across Southeastern Australia
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 19 ( 2013-10-01), p. 7555-7569
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 19 ( 2013-10-01), p. 7555-7569
    Kurzfassung: Relationships of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the southern annular mode (SAM) with atmospheric blocking are investigated using a linear framework over the austral autumn–spring (cool) seasons for southeast Australia (SEA). Positive blocking events occurring at 130°–140°E increase the likelihood of cutoff low pressure systems developing that generate significant rainfall totals across SEA. In mid to late austral autumn (April–May), blocking is coherent with negative IOD events. During this season, a negative IOD event and blocking are associated with warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and a blocking high pressure cell south of Australia. An anomalous cyclonic pressure center over southern Australia directs tropical moisture flux anomalies to the region. Despite this, only a small portion of a negative IOD's impact on SEA rainfall comes through blocking events. During austral winter, ENSO is coherent with blocking; anomalous tropical moisture fluxes from the western Pacific during a La Niña merge with anomalous cyclonic flows centered over SEA, delivering enhanced rainfall via cutoff lows. The low pressure cell constitutes a center of the Southern Oscillation associated with ENSO. This ENSO-blocking coherence is considerably weaker in austral spring, whereby circulation anomalies associated with blocking resemble a SAM-like pattern. As such, a large portion of the SAM's impact on SEA spring rainfall occurs in conjunction with blocking events. The relative importance of associations between the dominant climate modes and blocking in generating the drought-breaking cool season precipitation in 2010 across SEA is discussed.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00781.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Meteorological Society
    Publikationsdatum: 2013
    ZDB Id: 246750-1
    ZDB Id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
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    Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2014
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 4, No. 2 ( 2014-2), p. 111-116
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 4, No. 2 ( 2014-2), p. 111-116
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2100
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publikationsdatum: 2014
    ZDB Id: 2603450-5
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  • 10
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    The 2011 southeast Queensland extreme summer rainfall: A confirmation of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase? : PDO AND 2011 SEQ SUMMER RAINFALL
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2012
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 39, No. 8 ( 2012-04), p. n/a-n/a
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 39, No. 8 ( 2012-04), p. n/a-n/a
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050820
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publikationsdatum: 2012
    ZDB Id: 2021599-X
    ZDB Id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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