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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : Water resources are the lifeblood of the Near East region. Careful planning and management of water resources in dry land regions requires information on the likelihood of extreme events, especially prolonged drought. It is essential to understand the variability of climate on time scales of decades to centuries to assign reasonable probabilities to such events. Tree-ring analysis is one way to increase our knowledge of the climate variability beyond the short period covered by the instrumental data. In this paper, we reconstruct October-May precipitation from a Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology in southern Jordan to gain a long-term (A.D. 1600–1995) perspective on runs of dry years and on time series fluctuations in precipitation averaged over several years. The reconstruction equation derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices explains 44 percent of the variance of observed precipitation. The longest reconstructed drought, as defined by consecutive years below a threshold of 217.4 mm, was four years, compared with three years for the 1946–95 instrumental data. A Monte Carlo analysis designed to account for uncertainty in the reconstruction indicates a lower than 50 percent chance that the region has experienced drought longer than five years in the past 400 years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © Arizona Board of Regents, 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Radiocarbon 56, no. 4 (2014): S61-S68, doi:10.2458/azu_rc.56.18321.
    Description: Also published in Tree-Ring Research, 70. no. 3 (2014): S61-S68, doi:10.3959/1536-1098-70.3.61
    Description: Dendroclimatology in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has made important contributions to the understanding of climate variability on timescales of decades to centuries. These contributions, beginning in the mid-20th century, have value for resource management, archaeology, and climatology. A gradually expanding tree-ring network developed by the first author over the past 15 years has been the framework for some of the most important recent advances in EM dendroclimatology. The network, now consisting of 79 sites, has been widely applied in large-scale climatic reconstruction and in helping to identify drivers of climatic variation on regional to global spatial scales. This article reviews EM dendroclimatology and highlights contributions on the national and international scale.
    Description: Funding was provided by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) under grants from the Earth System History (ESH) and Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) programs, AGS- 0075956, AGS-0758486, and AGS-1103314.
    Keywords: Dendroclimatology ; Eastern Mediterranean ; Tree-ring growth ; Reconstruction ; Drought
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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