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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Drought : Past Problems and Future Scenarios. (2011)
    Oxford :Taylor & Francis Group,
    Details
    Keywords: Water-supply -- Management. ; Electronic books.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 online resource (249 pages)
    Edition: 1st ed.
    ISBN: 9781136540417
    URL: https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/geomar/detail.action?docID=1046811
    DDC: 363.34/929
    Language: English
    Note: Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Figures, Tables, Boxes and Plates -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Chapter 1. Introduction -- Drought Today -- Drought and Global Change -- The Motivation for this Book -- An Overview of the Book -- Chapter 2. What is Drought? -- The Hazard of Drought -- Defining Drought -- Chapter 3. The Science of Drought -- Introduction -- The Hydrological Cycle -- Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Hydrology -- What Causes Drought? -- Summary -- Chapter 4. Quantifying Drought -- Introduction -- Drought Data -- Monitoring Drought from Space -- Modelling Drought -- Palaeoclimate Data: Reconstructing Drought over Millennia -- Quantifying Drought: Characteristics and Indices -- Summary -- Chapter 5. Palaeo-drought: The Occurrence of Drought over Past Millennia -- Introduction -- Climate of the Holocene -- Drought in the Holocene -- The Last 2000 Years -- The Last 1000 Years -- Drought in Recent Centuries -- Global Mechanisms and Connections -- Summary -- Chapter 6. Drought in the 20th Century -- Introduction -- Climate of the 20th Century -- The Global Extent of 20th-Century Drought -- Characteristics of Global Drought -- Regional Drought over the 20th Century -- Global Variability in Soil Moisture and Links with Large-Scale Climate Variability -- Global Variability in Drought and Links with Large-Scale Climate Variability -- Summary -- Chapter 7. Major Drought Events of the 20th Century -- Introduction -- North America -- South America -- Europe -- Africa -- Asia -- Oceania -- The Most Severe Droughts of the 20th Century -- Chapter 8. Drought in the 21st Century -- Introduction -- Mechanisms of Changes in Drought -- Climate Models, Emission Scenarios and Future Projections -- Drought Estimation -- Projected Future Changes in Drought -- Potential Impacts of Future Drought -- Chapter 9. Summary and Recommendations. , Conclusions -- Index -- Plates.
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  • 2
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    North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part II: evaluation of historical simulations of intraseasonal to decadal variability (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 9247–9290, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00593.1.
    Description: This is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the twentieth-century simulations of intraseasonal to multidecadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multimodel ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but it does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intraseasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multimodel mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are underpredicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. The frequency and mean amplitude of ENSO are generally well reproduced, although teleconnections with North American climate are widely varying among models and only a few models can reproduce the east and central Pacific types of ENSO and connections with U.S. winter temperatures. The models capture the spatial pattern of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) variability and its influence on continental temperature and West Coast precipitation but less well for the wintertime precipitation. The spatial representation of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is reasonable, but the magnitude of SST anomalies and teleconnections are poorly reproduced. Multidecadal trends such as the warming hole over the central–southeastern United States and precipitation increases are not replicated by the models, suggesting that observed changes are linked to natural variability.
    Description: The authors acknowledge the support of NOAA/Climate Program Office/Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program as part of the CMIP5 Task Force.
    Description: 2014-06-01
    Keywords: North America ; Regional effects ; Coupled models ; Decadal variability ; Interannual variability ; Intraseasonal variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    The observed state of the water cycle in the early twenty-first century (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8289–8318, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00555.1.
    Description: This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth’s water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.
    Description: This research was funded by multiple grants from NASA’s Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program.
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Water budget ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Remote sensing ; Mathematical and statistical techniques ; Numerical analysis/modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
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    The observed state of the energy budget in the early twenty-first century (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8319-8346, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00556.1.
    Description: New objectively balanced observation-based reconstructions of global and continental energy budgets and their seasonal variability are presented that span the golden decade of Earth-observing satellites at the start of the twenty-first century. In the absence of balance constraints, various combinations of modern flux datasets reveal that current estimates of net radiation into Earth’s surface exceed corresponding turbulent heat fluxes by 13–24 W m−2. The largest imbalances occur over oceanic regions where the component algorithms operate independent of closure constraints. Recent uncertainty assessments suggest that these imbalances fall within anticipated error bounds for each dataset, but the systematic nature of required adjustments across different regions confirm the existence of biases in the component fluxes. To reintroduce energy and water cycle closure information lost in the development of independent flux datasets, a variational method is introduced that explicitly accounts for the relative accuracies in all component fluxes. Applying the technique to a 10-yr record of satellite observations yields new energy budget estimates that simultaneously satisfy all energy and water cycle balance constraints. Globally, 180 W m−2 of atmospheric longwave cooling is balanced by 74 W m−2 of shortwave absorption and 106 W m−2 of latent and sensible heat release. At the surface, 106 W m−2 of downwelling radiation is balanced by turbulent heat transfer to within a residual heat flux into the oceans of 0.45 W m−2, consistent with recent observations of changes in ocean heat content. Annual mean energy budgets and their seasonal cycles for each of seven continents and nine ocean basins are also presented.
    Description: This study is the result of a collaboration of multiple investigators each supported by the NEWS program.
    Keywords: Climatology ; Energy budget/balance ; Heat budgets/fluxes ; Radiative fluxes ; Surface fluxes ; Satellite observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    Confronting terrestrial biosphere models with forest inventory data (2014)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-06-01
    Description: Efforts to test and improve terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) using a variety of data sources have become increasingly common. Yet, geographically extensive forest inventories have been under-exploited in previous model?data fusion efforts. Inventory observations of forest growth, mortality, and biomass integrate processes across a range of timescales, including slow timescale processes such as species turnover, that are likely to have important effects on ecosystem responses to environmental variation. However, the large number (thousands) of inventory plots precludes detailed measurements at each location, so that uncertainty in climate, soil properties, and other environmental drivers may be large. Errors in driver variables, if ignored, introduce bias into model?data fusion. We estimated errors in climate and soil drivers at U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, and we explored the effects of these errors on model?data fusion with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory LM3V dynamic global vegetation model. When driver errors were ignored or assumed small at FIA plots, responses of biomass production in LM3V to precipitation and soil available water capacity appeared steeper than the corresponding responses estimated from FIA data. These differences became nonsignificant if driver errors at FIA plots were assumed to be large. Ignoring driver errors when optimizing LM3V parameter values yielded estimates for fine-root allocation that were larger than biometric estimates, which is consistent with the expected direction of bias. To explore whether complications posed by driver errors could be circumvented by relying on intensive study sites where driver errors are small, we performed a power analysis. To accurately quantify the response of biomass production to spatial variation in mean annual precipitation within the eastern United States would require at least 40 intensive study sites, which is larger than the number of sites typically available for individual biomes in existing plot networks. Driver errors may be accommodated by several existing model?data fusion approaches, including hierarchical Bayesian methods and ensemble filtering methods; however, these methods are computationally expensive. We propose a new approach, in which the TBM functional response is fit directly to the driver-error-corrected functional response estimated from data, rather than to the raw observations. # doi:10.1890/13-0600.1
    Print ISSN: 1051-0761
    Electronic ISSN: 1939-5582
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of The Ecological Society of America (ESA).
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