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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Contrasting the Role of Regional and Remote Circulation in Driving Asian Monsoon Biases in MetUM GA7.1
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 126, No. 14 ( 2021-07-27)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 126, No. 14 ( 2021-07-27)
    Abstract: Nudging can substantially reduce precipitation biases Seasonal precipitation biases over India and eastern China are mostly driven by local circulation except over eastern China in summer Nudging improves the simulated El Niño teleconnections to India and China and monsoon onset date in particular over India
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020JD034342
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
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    The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2020
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 117, No. 32 ( 2020-08-11), p. 18998-19006
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 32 ( 2020-08-11), p. 18998-19006
    Abstract: The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol−cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth’s climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol−cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm −3 and 24 cm −3 . By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol−cloud interactions is constrained to be −1.2 W⋅m −2 to −0.6 W⋅m −2 . The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol−cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922502117
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 3
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    Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Earth System Science Data Vol. 12, No. 3 ( 2020-07-16), p. 1649-1677
    Details
    In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 12, No. 3 ( 2020-07-16), p. 1649-1677
    Abstract: Abstract. Radiative forcing provides an important basis for understanding and predicting global climate changes, but its quantification has historically been done independently for different forcing agents, has involved observations to varying degrees, and studies have not always included a detailed analysis of uncertainties. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis is an optimal combination of modelling and observations of atmospheric composition. It provides a unique opportunity to rely on observations to quantify the monthly and spatially resolved global distributions of radiative forcing consistently for six of the largest forcing agents: carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, aerosol–radiation interactions, and aerosol–cloud interactions. These radiative-forcing estimates account for adjustments in stratospheric temperatures but do not account for rapid adjustments in the troposphere. On a global average and over the period 2003–2017, stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing of carbon dioxide has averaged +1.89 W m−2 (5 %–95 % confidence interval: 1.50 to 2.29 W m−2) relative to 1750 and increased at a rate of 18 % per decade. The corresponding values for methane are +0.46 (0.36 to 0.56) W m−2 and 4 % per decade but with a clear acceleration since 2007. Ozone radiative-forcing averages +0.32 (0 to 0.64) W m−2, almost entirely contributed by tropospheric ozone since stratospheric ozone radiative forcing is only +0.003 W m−2. Aerosol radiative-forcing averages −1.25 (−1.98 to −0.52) W m−2, with aerosol–radiation interactions contributing −0.56 W m−2 and aerosol–cloud interactions contributing −0.69 W m−2 to the global average. Both have been relatively stable since 2003. Taking the six forcing agents together, there is no indication of a sustained slowdown or acceleration in the rate of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing over the period. These ongoing radiative-forcing estimates will monitor the impact on the Earth's energy budget of the dramatic emission reductions towards net-zero that are needed to limit surface temperature warming to the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Indeed, such impacts should be clearly manifested in radiative forcing before being clear in the temperature record. In addition, this radiative-forcing dataset can provide the input distributions needed by researchers involved in monitoring of climate change, detection and attribution, interannual to decadal prediction, and integrated assessment modelling. The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.24380/ads.1hj3y896 (Bellouin et al., 2020b).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1866-3516
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2475469-9
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Earth System Dynamics Vol. 13, No. 3 ( 2022-08-26), p. 1215-1232
    Details
    In: Earth System Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 3 ( 2022-08-26), p. 1215-1232
    Abstract: Abstract. An observed southward shift in tropical rainfall over land between 1950 and 1985, followed by a weaker recovery post-1985, has been attributed to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and cooling of the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere. We might therefore expect models that have a strong historic hemispheric contrast in aerosol forcing to simulate a further northward tropical rainfall shift in the near-term future when anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions will predominantly warm the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate this paradigm using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of transient coupled ocean–atmosphere climate simulations that span a range of aerosol radiative forcing comparable to multi-model studies. In the 20th century, in our single-model ensemble, we find no relationship between the magnitude of pre-industrial to 1975 inter-hemispheric anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and tropical precipitation shifts. Instead, tropical precipitation shifts are associated with major volcanic eruptions and are strongly affected by internal variability. However, we do find a relationship between the magnitude of pre-industrial to 2005 inter-hemispheric anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and future tropical precipitation shifts over 2006 to 2060 under scenario RCP8.5. Our results suggest that projections of tropical precipitation shifts will be improved by reducing aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty, but predictive gains may be offset by temporary shifts in tropical precipitation caused by future major volcanic eruptions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2190-4987
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2578793-7
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  • 5
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    The Climatic Importance of Uncertainties in Regional Aerosol–Cloud Radiative Forcings over Recent Decades
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 17 ( 2015-09-01), p. 6589-6607
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 17 ( 2015-09-01), p. 6589-6607
    Abstract: Regional patterns of aerosol radiative forcing are important for understanding climate change on decadal time scales. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is likely to vary regionally and seasonally because of the short aerosol lifetime and heterogeneous emissions. Here the sensitivity of regional aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE) forcing to 31 aerosol process parameters and emission fluxes is quantified between 1978 and 2008. The effects of parametric uncertainties on calculations of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation are found to be spatially and temporally dependent. Regional uncertainty contributions of opposite sign cancel in global-mean forcing calculations, masking the regional importance of some parameters. Parameters that contribute little to uncertainty in Earth’s global energy balance during recent decades make significant contributions to regional forcing variance. Aerosol forcing sensitivities are quantified within 11 climatically important regions, where surface temperatures are thought to influence large-scale climate effects. Substantial simulated uncertainty in CAE forcing in the eastern Pacific leaves open the possibility that apparent shifts in the mean ENSO state may result from a forced aerosol signal on multidecadal time scales. A likely negative aerosol CAE forcing in the tropical North Atlantic calls into question the relationship between Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reductions and CAE forcing of sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic hurricane development region on decadal time scales. Simulated CAE forcing uncertainty is large in the North Pacific, suggesting that the role of the CAE in altering Pacific tropical storm frequency and intensity is also highly uncertain.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0127.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
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    Exploring How Eruption Source Parameters Affect Volcanic Radiative Forcing Using Statistical Emulation
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 124, No. 2 ( 2019-01-27), p. 964-985
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 124, No. 2 ( 2019-01-27), p. 964-985
    Abstract: We demonstrate the feasibility and value of using statistical emulation to quantify the radiative impact of volcanic eruptions Emulated response surfaces illustrate the dependencies of model output such as net radiative forcing on eruption source parameters Emulated response surfaces can also be used to constrain the eruption source parameters for a particular volcanic response
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028675
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
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    Aerosols in the Pre-industrial Atmosphere
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2017
    In:  Current Climate Change Reports Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 2017-3), p. 1-15
    Details
    In: Current Climate Change Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 2017-3), p. 1-15
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2198-6061
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s40641-017-0061-2
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2808618-1
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  • 8
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    FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 11, No. 6 ( 2018-06-18), p. 2273-2297
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 6 ( 2018-06-18), p. 2273-2297
    Abstract: Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climate change. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and other agents. Model runs are constrained to observed temperature change from 1880 to 2016 and produce a range of future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The constrained estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) are 2.86 (2.01 to 4.22) K, 1.53 (1.05 to 2.41) K and 1.40 (0.96 to 2.23) K (1000 GtC)−1 (median and 5–95 % credible intervals). These are in good agreement with the likely Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) range, noting that AR5 estimates were derived from a combination of climate models, observations and expert judgement. The ranges of future projections of temperature and ranges of estimates of ECS, TCR and TCRE are somewhat sensitive to the prior distributions of ECS∕TCR parameters but less sensitive to the ERF from a doubling of CO2 or the observational temperature dataset used to constrain the ensemble. Taking these sensitivities into account, there is no evidence to suggest that the median and credible range of observationally constrained TCR or ECS differ from climate model-derived estimates. The range of temperature projections under RCP8.5 for 2081–2100 in the constrained FAIR model ensemble is lower than the emissions-based estimate reported in AR5 by half a degree, owing to differences in forcing assumptions and ECS∕TCR distributions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 9
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    The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 20, No. 16 ( 2020-08-28), p. 10063-10072
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 16 ( 2020-08-28), p. 10063-10072
    Abstract: Abstract. Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol–cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7 % using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8 % reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RFaci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20 % of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RFaci is around 0.17 W m−2 weaker (less negative) with 95 % credible values ranging from −2.51 to −1.17 W m−2 (standard deviation of −2.18 to −1.46 W m−2). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020-supplement
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-10063-2020-editorial-note
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 10
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    Overview of the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and Their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE)
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 100, No. 11 ( 2019-11), p. 2260-2283
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 100, No. 11 ( 2019-11), p. 2260-2283
    Abstract: Uncertainty in radiative forcing caused by aerosol–cloud interactions is about twice as large as for CO 2 and remains the least well understood anthropogenic contribution to climate change. A major cause of uncertainty is the poorly quantified state of aerosols in the pristine preindustrial atmosphere, which defines the baseline against which anthropogenic effects are calculated. The Southern Ocean is one of the few remaining near-pristine aerosol environments on Earth, but there are very few measurements to help evaluate models. The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition: Study of Preindustrial-like Aerosols and their Climate Effects (ACE-SPACE) took place between December 2016 and March 2017 and covered the entire Southern Ocean region (Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans; length of ship track 〉 33,000 km) including previously unexplored areas. In situ measurements covered aerosol characteristics [e.g., chemical composition, size distributions, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations], trace gases, and meteorological variables. Remote sensing observations of cloud properties, the physical and microbial ocean state, and back trajectory analyses are used to interpret the in situ data. The contribution of sea spray to CCN in the westerly wind belt can be larger than 50%. The abundance of methanesulfonic acid indicates local and regional microbial influence on CCN abundance in Antarctic coastal waters and in the open ocean. We use the in situ data to evaluate simulated CCN concentrations from a global aerosol model. The extensive, available ACE-SPACE dataset ( https://zenodo.org/communities/spi-ace?page=1 & size=20 ) provides an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate models and to reduce the uncertainty in radiative forcing associated with the natural processes of aerosol emission, formation, transport, and processing occurring over the pristine Southern Ocean.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0187.1
    DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0187.2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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