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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios (1992)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 357 (1992), S. 293-300 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A new set of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios has been produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Incorporating these into models that also include the effects of C02 fertilization, feedback from stratospheric ozone depletion and the radiative effects of ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/357293a0
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Recent temperature changes in the Arctic and Antarctic (1983)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 306 (1983), S. 458-459 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] To minimize the effect of differing altitude and Aspect, temperatures were calculated as anomalies from a reference period with good data coverage. For the Northern Hemisphere the reference period 1946-60 was used and for the Antarctic it was 1957-75. Before 1957 there were not enough recording ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/306458a0
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Natural variability of the climate system and detection of the greenhouse effect (1990)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 344 (1990), S. 324-327 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/344324a0
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming (1987)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 330 (1987), S. 127-131 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The relationship between greenhouse-gas forcing, global mean temperature change and sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans is investigated using upwelling–diffusion and pure diffusion models. The sensitivities of sea-level to short-timescale forcing and deep-water formation ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/330127a0
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  • 5
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    A geometric glacier model for sea-level change calculations (2000)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Glaciology, 46, pp. 357-368
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Towards accounting for the dynamic response of glaciers and ice caps in the estimation of their contribution to sea-level rise due to global warming, a mass-balance degree-day model is coupled to a geometric glacier model. The ice dynamics are treated implicitly in the geometric model by using scaling parameters that have been extensively investigated in the literature. The model is tested by presenting a case-study of the glacier Hintereisferner, Austrian Alps. The results are compatible with geomorphological data and other modelling studies. An estimate is made of the volume decrease due to initial disequilibrium. An extensive sensitivity study using generalized glacier shapes and sizes allows a comparison of results with dynamic theory. According to the geometric model, glaciers with a narrowing channel change more with a change in mass balance than glaciers with a widening channel, due to their shape and the way in which that shape changes with a changing climate. Also their response time is longer. As time progresses after a mass-balance perturbation, the longer response time for continental glaciers compared to glaciers with a larger mass turnover offsets the effect of their smaller static sensitivity. Thus, although for the next century we may expect greater changes in volume from alpine glaciers, the equilibrium or committed change is greater for the continental glaciers.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    The Role of Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake on AOGCM Transient Temperature Response (2002)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, 15, pp. 124-130
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake in determining the range of climate model response is investigated in the CMIP2 AOGCM results. The fraction of equilibrium warming that is realised at any one time is less in those models with higher climate sensitivity, leading to a reduction in the temperature response range at the time of CO2 doubling (TCR range transient climate response). The range is reduced by a farther 15% due to an apparent relationship between climate sensitivity and the efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Some possible physical causes for this relationship are suggested.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
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    Reasons for larger warming projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2002)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, 15, pp. 2945-2952
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
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    Glacier and Ice cap Melt Projections (2004)
    In:  EPIC3MILMO WORKSHOP, BrusselsNovember 2004., 16
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Projections of sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps for the next century and beyond should be based on an assessment of the ice available for melting. Projections to date are based on all regions except Greenland and Antarctica, yet no sound estimates for this volume of ice and its potential for sea level rise are evident in the literature. An ice cap data set is compiled allowing the separate treatment of glacier area coverage data. Glacier inventory data are comprehensive enough in some regions to allow the estimation of glacier size distributions. The differences in the distributions are related to a metric of the regional topography, allowing glacier size distributions to be estimated on a 1o latitude longitude grid of glacier containing cells. Appropriate volume-area scaling for glaciers and for ice caps gives global estimates of glacier and ice cap volumes by size class. This leads to an estimate of the total ice volume of 0.087 ± 0.005 106 km3 and a sea-level rise equivalent of 0.240 ± 0.015 m. The glaciers and ice caps contribute 41% and 59% to these estimates respectively. Some aspects of modelling glacier and ice cap melt will be discussed and some idealized projections will be presented.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 9
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    The Potential for Sea Level Rise: new estimates from Glacier and Ice Cap area and volume distributions (2005)
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical research letters, 32, L055020.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Projections of sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps for the next century and beyond should be based on an assessment of the ice available for melting. Projections to date are based on all regions except Greenland and Antarctica (the latter are considered separately by the IPCC), yet no sound estimates for the appropriate volume of ice and its potential for sea level rise are evident in the literature. An ice cap data set is compiled allowing the separate treatment of glacier area coverage data. Glacier inventory data are comprehensive enough in some regions to allow the estimation of glacier size distributions. The differences in the distributions are related to a metric of the regional topographic variability, allowing glacier size distributions to be estimated on a 1o latitude longitude grid of cells containing glaciers. Appropriate volume-area scaling for glaciers and for ice caps gives global estimates of glacier and ice cap volumes by size class. This leads to an estimate of the total ice volume of 0.087 ± 0.010 106 km3 and a sea level rise equivalent of 0.241 ± 0.026 m. The glaciers and ice caps contribute 41% and 59% to these estimates respectively. These values are based on data sets compiled during several decades, mainly in the second half of the 20th Century. We compare our results to published results that include the glaciers and icecaps at the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 10
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    Outline of the Projections Chapter in AR4 WGI: with Reference to the Emissions Scenarios (2005)
    In:  EPIC3Invited Lecture, IPCC Expert meeting on Emission Scenarios 12 14 January 2005, Washington DC.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: The projections chapter for AR4 WG1 has solicited model results for two model inter-comparison exercises for the AR4. These model inter-comparisons will form a major part of the projections chapter. The first inter-comparison is for coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and the second is for models of intermediate complexity (EMICs).The scenario runs requested for these inter-comparisons will be described. To compliment this work these runs will also be performed with a tuned simple climate model (SCM). This SCM will be used to extend the scope by assessing the climate response to additional scenarios. It is anticipated that these scenarios will include the full set of SRES scenarios comparable to what was done for the TAR. Radiative forcing, carbon cycle feedback and climate sensitivity together with their uncertainties will be based on assessments across the AR4. In addition, where possible a probabilistic approach will be used. Other pertinent emissions scenarios may also be run with the SCM and perhaps an EMIC model and it is hoped to obtain advice during this session as to which emission scenarios should used in addition to produce global mean temperature projections for the AR4.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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