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  • 1
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Solid Earth Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2022-06-29), p. 1087-1105
    In: Solid Earth, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2022-06-29), p. 1087-1105
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Seismic hazard during subsurface operations is often related to the reactivation of pre-existing tectonic faults. The analysis of the slip tendency, i.e., the ratio of shear to normal stress acting on the fault plane, allows an assessment of the reactivation potential of faults. We use the total stresses that result from a large-scale 3D geomechanical–numerical model of Germany and adjacent areas to calculate the slip tendency for three 3D fault geometry sets with increasing complexity. This allows us to draw general conclusions about the influence of the fault geometry on the reactivation potential. In general, the fault reactivation potential is higher in Germany for faults that strike NW–SE and NNE–SSW. Due to the prevailing normal stress regime in the geomechanical–numerical model results, faults dipping at an angle of about 60∘ generally show higher slip tendencies in comparison to steeper or shallower dipping faults. Faults implemented with a straight geometry show higher slip tendencies than those represented with a more complex, uneven geometry. Pore pressure has been assumed to be hydrostatic and has been shown to have a major influence on the calculated slip tendencies. Compared to slip tendency values calculated without pore pressure, the consideration of pore pressure leads to an increase in slip tendency of up to 50 %. The qualitative comparison of the slip tendency with the occurrence of seismic events with moment magnitudes Mw〉3.5 shows areas with an overall good spatial correlation between elevated slip tendencies and seismic activity but also highlights areas where more detailed and diverse fault sets would be beneficial.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1869-9529
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2022
    ZDB Id: 2545676-3
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  • 2
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2017
    In:  Grundwasser Vol. 22, No. 3 ( 2017-9), p. 165-173
    In: Grundwasser, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 22, No. 3 ( 2017-9), p. 165-173
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1430-483X , 1432-1165
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Verlag: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publikationsdatum: 2017
    ZDB Id: 1481438-9
    ZDB Id: 1330005-2
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  • 3
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    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal Vol. 2 ( 2023-09-06), p. 73-73
    In: Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 2 ( 2023-09-06), p. 73-73
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Fault reactivation potential is a crucial aspect for many underground utilizations, such as the construction and long-term safety of a nuclear waste repository, as seismic events can endanger these operations. An estimation of the fault reactivation potential requires information about the stress field, but stress data are only available pointwise and are not evenly distributed throughout Germany. Geomechanical–numerical modeling can be used to derive a spatially continuous description of all six independent components of the stress tensor as shown by the model of Germany by Ahlers et al. (2022). Information about the geometry of faults extending several kilometers in depth is provided for most areas in Germany by the geological models of the federal states and geological models created in the framework of projects such as GeoMol (Assessing subsurface potentials of the Alpine Foreland Basins for sustainable planning and use of natural resources) or GeORG (Geopotenziale des tieferen Untergrundes im Oberrheingraben). We use the 3D fault geometries provided by such models and map the stress data from the Germany model by Ahlers et al. (2022) onto these faults. Then, assuming hydrostatic pore pressure, we calculate the so-called slip tendency (TS), the ratio between resolved shear stress and the effective normal stress on the fault plane as a measure of fault reactivation potential. A fault is considered critical when its TS value exceeds its coefficient of friction. In general, TS ranges between 0 and 0.7 for the analyzed faults. The highest overall TS values are observed along the NNE–SSW-striking Upper Rhine Graben, where TS routinely reaches and exceeds values of 0.7. In the North German Basin, the Ore Mountains and Saxony only very few TS values exceed 0.7. The area with the lowest overall TS is the Molasse Basin, where the TS of the mostly WSW–ENE-striking faults only rarely exceeds values of 0.4. In general, N–S- to NNE–SSW- and NW–SE-striking faults show the highest TS values, whereas WSW–ENE-striking faults show the overall lowest values. With increasing depth, TS decreases. Pore pressure and overpressure have the potential to significantly influence the resulting TS.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2749-4802
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2023
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  • 4
    In: Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 2 ( 2023-09-06), p. 59-59
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The recent crustal stress state is a crucial parameter in the search for a high-level nuclear waste repository. It is relevant not only for site selection and short-term stability during operation but also for predicting long-term safety. However, the level of knowledge in this regard is still limited in Germany. It is based on stress orientations and stress regime information from the World Stress Map (WSM) project and pointwise stress magnitude records. We present the results of a 3D geomechanical numerical model that improves the state of knowledge by providing a continuum-mechanics-based prediction of the recent crustal stress field in Germany. The model extends over an area of 1000×1250 km2, covering Germany and nearby regions. It contains 22 geological units, each parameterized with individual properties (density, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio). We assume linear elasticity, and the finite element method is used to solve the equilibrium of forces. The model is calibrated with horizontal stress magnitude records and validated with additional data, for example, vertical stress magnitudes or data of the WSM project. Our model results are in a good agreement with a mean orientation of the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) derived from the WSM, as indicated by a mean of the absolute differences of 12∘. Furthermore, the model results lie entirely within the standard deviation of the derived orientation of SHmax. Mean values of the absolute stress differences between calibration data and model results of 4.6 MPa for the minimum horizontal stresses (SHmin) and 6.4 MPa for the SHmax also show a good agreement. The model results can be used, for example, for the calculation of fracture potential, for slip tendency analyses or as boundary conditions for smaller local models. For smaller model volumes, where little or no stress information is available, it provides synthetic stress magnitude data that can be used for calibration. As such, the model provides a valuable starting point for the detailed assessment of stability at yet-to-be-determined siting regions for a high-level nuclear waste repository.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2749-4802
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2023
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  • 5
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    Online-Ressource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Geothermal Energy Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    In: Geothermal Energy, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2022-12)
    Kurzfassung: Information about the absolute stress state in the upper crust plays a crucial role in the planning and execution of, e.g., directional drilling, stimulation and exploitation of geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoirs. Since many of these applications are related to sediments, we present a refined geomechanical–numerical model for Germany with focus on sedimentary basins, able to predict the complete 3D stress tensor. The lateral resolution of the model is 2.5 km, the vertical resolution about 250 m. Our model contains 22 units with focus on the sedimentary layers parameterized with individual rock properties. The model results show an overall good fit with magnitude data of the minimum ( S hmin ) and maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) that are used for the model calibration. The mean of the absolute stress differences between these calibration data and the model results is 4.6 MPa for S hmin and 6.4 MPa for S Hmax . In addition, our predicted stress field shows good agreement to several supplementary in-situ data from the North German Basin, the Upper Rhine Graben and the Molasse Basin.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2195-9706
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publikationsdatum: 2022
    ZDB Id: 2718871-1
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  • 6
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal Vol. 1 ( 2021-11-10), p. 77-78
    In: Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 1 ( 2021-11-10), p. 77-78
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Natural seismicity and tectonic activity are important processes for the site-selection and for the long-term safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository, as they can influence the integrity of underground structures significantly. Therefore, it is crucial to gain insight into the reactivation potential of faults. The two key factors that control the reactivation potential are (a) the geometry and properties of the fault such as strike direction and friction angle, and (b) the orientations and magnitudes of the recent stress field and future changes to it due to exogenous processes such as glacial loading as well as anthropogenic activities in the subsurface. One measure of the reactivation potential of faults is the ratio of resolved shear stress to normal stresses at the fault surface, which is called slip tendency. However, the available information on fault properties and the stress field in Germany is sparse. Geomechanical numerical modelling can provide a prediction of the required 3D stress tensor in places without stress data. Here, we present slip tendency calculations on major faults based on a 3D geomechanical numerical model of Germany and adjacent regions of the SpannEnD project (Ahlers et al., 2021). Criteria for the selection of faults relevant to the scope of the SpannEnD project were identified and 55 faults within the model area were selected. For the selected faults, simplified geometries were created. For a subset of the selected faults, vertical profiles and seismic sections could be used to generate semi-realistic 3D fault geometries. Slip tendency calculations using the stress tensor from the SpannEnD model were performed for both 3D fault sets. The slip tendencies were calculated without factoring in pore pressure and cohesion, and were normalized to a coefficient of friction of 0.6. The resulting values range mainly between 0 and 1, with 6 % of values larger than 0.4. In general, the observed slip tendency is slightly higher for faults striking in the NW and NNE directions than for faults of other strikes. Normal faults show higher slip tendencies than reverse and strike slip faults for the majority of faults. Seismic events are generally in good agreement with the regions of elevated slip tendencies; however, not all seismicity can be explained through the slip tendency analysis.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2749-4802
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
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  • 7
    Online-Ressource
    Online-Ressource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal Vol. 1 ( 2021-11-10), p. 75-76
    In: Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 1 ( 2021-11-10), p. 75-76
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. Assessment of the stability of deep geological repositories is a key task in the site selection process for high-level radioactive waste. Geomechanical stability is affected by endogenous and exogenous processes as well as by geotechnical operations. Stability prediction requires both an estimate of future stress changes as well as the initial, i.e. current stress state. However, data records on the current stress state in the upper crust are incomplete, sparse and spatially unevenly distributed. Therefore, geomechanical-numerical models are the only way to estimate the full stress tensor at locations where stress observations are not available. The main components of such a 3-D geomechanical model are the distribution of the elastic rock properties and rock density as well as stress data for the model calibration. The aim is to find the optimal initial and boundary conditions that result in a best-fit with respect to available stress data within the model volume. For this reason, the first open access database for stress magnitude data has been developed as an extension of the existing database on stress orientation data (world-stress-map.org). The new database contains 568 data records from Germany and surrounding areas, but only 15 % of these data records are of acceptable quality. Thus, only one reliable set of stress magnitude data is available for an area of 100×100 km2. Based on existing compilations of the crustal structure in and around Germany, data were merged into one model with the aim of estimating the 3-D stress state in Germany. Geomechanical models for stress estimation in Germany were created with varying geometrical and mechanical resolution. While the first model consists of four mechanical units and 1.3 million finite elements, the subsequent model consists of 12 units and 3.6 million finite elements. The results of the best-fit model with respect to the stress data reveal that there are regional differences when calculating the fracture potential, i.e. the distance to failure of intact rock as well as different values of slip tendency, which provides a measure of the reactivation potential of pre-existing faults. The observed variability of the modelled stress field can be used as a first-order assessment. Since model uncertainties are still high, the absolute values are not yet reliable. However, the model can be used to derive consistent initial and boundary conditions for models on a regional scale. Furthermore, it makes it possible to investigate the influence of the large-scale crustal structure on the overall stress pattern. The modelling workflow is set-up in a way that new information and higher resolution if needed can be implemented when more data are provided. This will improve the reliability of both, the model prediction on the large scale as well as the initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution regional models for selected areas during the site selection process.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2749-4802
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
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  • 8
    In: Solid Earth, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 12, No. 8 ( 2021-08-11), p. 1777-1799
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The contemporary stress state in the upper crust is of great interest for geotechnical applications and basic research alike. However, our knowledge of the crustal stress field from the data perspective is limited. For Germany basically two datasets are available: orientations of the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) and the stress regime as part of the World Stress Map (WSM) database as well as a complementary compilation of stress magnitude data of Germany and adjacent regions. However, these datasets only provide pointwise, incomplete and heterogeneous information of the 3D stress tensor. Here, we present a geomechanical–numerical model that provides a continuous description of the contemporary 3D crustal stress state on a regional scale for Germany. The model covers an area of about 1000×1250 km2 and extends to a depth of 100 km containing seven units, with specific material properties (density and elastic rock properties) and laterally varying thicknesses: a sedimentary unit, four different units of the upper crust, the lower crust and the lithospheric mantle. The model is calibrated by the two datasets to achieve a best-fit regarding the SHmax orientations and the minimum horizontal stress magnitudes (Shmin). The modeled orientations of SHmax are almost entirely within the uncertainties of the WSM data used and the Shmin magnitudes fit to various datasets well. Only the SHmax magnitudes show locally significant deviations, primarily indicating values that are too low in the lower part of the model. The model is open for further refinements regarding model geometry, e.g., additional layers with laterally varying material properties, and incorporation of future stress measurements. In addition, it can provide the initial stress state for local geomechanical models with a higher resolution.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1869-9529
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
    ZDB Id: 2545676-3
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  • 9
    In: Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 1 ( 2021-11-10), p. 163-164
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. A decisive criterion for the selection and the long-term safety of a deep geological repository for high radioactive waste is the crustal stress state and its future changes. The basis of any prognosis is the recent crustal stress state, but the state of knowledge in Germany is quite low in this respect. There are stress orientation data provided by the World Stress Map (WSM, Heidbach et al., 2018) and stress magnitude data from a database (Morawietz et al., 2020) for Germany, both providing selective information on the recent stress field. However, these data are often incomplete, of low quality and spatially unevenly distributed. Therefore, a 3D continuous description is not possible with these data so far, at most for the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax), but not for the most important magnitudes of the minimum (Shmin) and SHmax. In the course of the SpannEnD project, a geomechanical–numerical 3D model of Germany is created, with which a continuous description of the complete tensor of the recent stress field in Germany is possible. The model covers an area of 1250×1000 km2 from Poland in the east, to France in the west, from Italy in the south to Scandinavia in the north. The depth extent is 100 km. Even though the focus is primarily on Germany, the model area was chosen to be so wide to minimize boundary effects and for a simplified definition of the displacement boundary conditions, which are ideally oriented perpendicular or parallel to the orientation of SHmax. The model contains a total of 21 units: The upper part of the lithospheric mantle, the lower crust, four laterally overlapping units of the upper crust, and 14 stratigraphic units of the sedimentary cover. The stratigraphic subdivision of the sedimentary cover is only done in the core area of the model; because this area is the focus of our study, our calibration data are mainly from this region and well-resolved geometry data are available. Outside of the core area, the sediments are grouped into an undifferentiated unit. The units are parameterized with density and elastic material parameters (Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus). The model has a lateral resolution of 2.5×2.5 km2 and a vertical resolution of a maximum of 240 m; in total it includes 11.1 million hexahedral elements. The equilibrium of forces between body and surface forces is solved by finite element method. The model is calibrated with Shmin and SHmax magnitudes from the WSM and data from the stress magnitude database. First, an initial stress state is generated and in a second step displacement boundary conditions are defined at the model edges, which are adjusted until a best-fit to the calibration data is found. The results show good agreement with both the SHmax orientation data from the WSM and the magnitudes of the two principal horizontal stresses (Shmin and SHmax) from the magnitude database.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2749-4802
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2021
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  • 10
    In: Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 2 ( 2023-09-06), p. 65-65
    Kurzfassung: Abstract. The prognosis of the state of stress in the subsurface can be improved by using numerical models in addition to data from stress measurements, as such models allow for consideration of variability stemming from structural complexities and an inhomogeneous distribution of rock properties. These models are generally set up in two consecutive steps. In the first step one an initial stress is established that accounts for gravity and a reasonable ratio of horizontal to vertical stress. This represents a reference stress state in the absence of tectonic stress and ensures equilibrium with gravity: i.e. no strain is produced once gravity acts. In the second step tectonic stress is included via displacement boundary conditions which induce horizontal differential stress to come up with the final stress state. Both initial stress and tectonic stress are chosen in such a way that calibration data are reproduced by the model at the locations and depths where the data were measured. We present generic models to investigate whether the choice of initial and tectonic stress affects the final state of stress in areas of the model domain where no stress data are available. We find that there is in general an ambiguity as different combinations of initial stress and tectonic stress yield the same final state of stress at the points where data are available. However, in those areas of the model domain where calibration data do not exist, these different choices of initial stress and tectonic stress produce differing results. These deviations are largest in the vicinity of lithological interfaces. We find that this ambiguity is reduced if more stress data exist, particularly in not just one lithology and at one depth. On the other hand, if more data are available, it becomes increasingly more difficult to find a combination of initial and tectonic stress to match them all. In view of the uncertainties of the data, such deviations between modelled stress and data may be expectable to some degree. However, such deviations may indicate that inelastic rock properties do play a role in some lithologies.
    Materialart: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 2749-4802
    Sprache: Englisch
    Verlag: Copernicus GmbH
    Publikationsdatum: 2023
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