Publication Date:
2024-04-28
Description:
The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point,
inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern. For 65 million years,
Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the
region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures,
extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the
system. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions
are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing
the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers
of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those
drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest
collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate
that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding
disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially
exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the
Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving
diferent feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent
complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals
opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene
will depend on a combination of local eforts to end deforestation and degradation
and to expand restoration, with global eforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
Repository Name:
National Museum of Natural History, Netherlands
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Format:
application/pdf
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